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Sup

Sup
366 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2842210 2-Jan-2022 23:55
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alasta:

 

I was thinking that the current booster would just tide us over until the mRNA vaccines are updated for omicron. Hopefully then we can get a fourth injection and have longer lasting protection.

 

Or am I dreaming?

 

 

No one knows to be honest so you could not dismiss this idea out of hand.

 

This vaccine held up well against the Ancestral wild strain in terms of longevity....even with a drop off in neutralizing antibodies the 1st gen vaccine still had a greater affinity for the wild strain spike protein therefore the efficacy percentage remained reasonable.

 

So perhaps an omicron vaccine would behave the same.

 

What is more important, is that a bespoke vaccine gives better herd type immunity across populations so wide use, everywhere all at once, might give us a chance of killing this thing off....which needs to start with slowing the rate of mutation.

 

Especially if omicron immunity is effective against Delta...because even if Omicron burns out...there will be pockets of Delta...so ideally a new vaccine would still work well against Delta.

 

Perhaps the new vaccine would be more effective from whatever mutant omicron throws out next too.....It does look as though we have to try a new vaccine.





Just keep swimming...




quickymart
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  #2842240 3-Jan-2022 07:45
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More on the so-called "Freedom Market":

 

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/01/richmond-stallholders-set-up-separatist-freedom-market-to-flout-covid-regulations.html

 

Free for now, but how long for? What would they do if coronavirus started spreading around this place? I bet they would panic.


tdgeek
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  #2842300 3-Jan-2022 08:29
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Scott3:

 

Daily press release:

 

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/nearly-20000-vaccines-administered-over-two-days-105-community-cases-over-two-days-43-hospital-5-icu

 

105 cases over two days.

 

Location of new community cases over two days: Auckland (71), Waikato (7), Bay of Plenty (22), Lakes (4), Hawke’s Bay (1)*

 

 

 

33 (over two days) at the border.

 

 

 

 

Rolling average is 41, cases now 105. Someone mentioned a second Delta wave might occur, or are these case numbers just based on low testing, and was testing up to get the 105 cases? 




Sup

Sup
366 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2842304 3-Jan-2022 08:47
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tdgeek:

 

Scott3:

 

Daily press release:

 

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/nearly-20000-vaccines-administered-over-two-days-105-community-cases-over-two-days-43-hospital-5-icu

 

105 cases over two days.

 

Location of new community cases over two days: Auckland (71), Waikato (7), Bay of Plenty (22), Lakes (4), Hawke’s Bay (1)*

 

 

 

33 (over two days) at the border.

 

 

 

 

Rolling average is 41, cases now 105. Someone mentioned a second Delta wave might occur, or are these case numbers just based on low testing, and was testing up to get the 105 cases? 

 

Hi, the 105 cases were for the two day New Year period. Are we looking at a slight rise thanks to the super spreader event in Te Kuiti?

 

The Bay of Plenty seems to to be throwing out a few numbers too.





Just keep swimming...


rugrat
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  #2842422 3-Jan-2022 12:21
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No prosecution for DJ. As don’t want to risk damaging future cases from cooperating with New Zealand’s public health response.

 

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300489658/covid19-dj-who-broke-miq-rules-and-took-omicron-into-community-set-to-avoid-prosecution

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2842427 3-Jan-2022 12:31
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rugrat:

 

No prosecution for DJ. As don’t want to risk damaging future cases from cooperating with New Zealand’s public health response.

 

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300489658/covid19-dj-who-broke-miq-rules-and-took-omicron-into-community-set-to-avoid-prosecution

 

 

 

 

And it wasn't blatant or non-cooperative, benefit of the doubt. 


Sup

Sup
366 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2842429 3-Jan-2022 12:34
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13% rise in hospitalizations in NSW in a single day. Can anyone see a problem here?





Just keep swimming...


 
 
 

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wellygary
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  #2842436 3-Jan-2022 13:01
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Sup:

 

13% rise in hospitalizations in NSW in a single day. Can anyone see a problem here?

 

 

Yes, But there is a big problem with the data.... so they are really flying blind 

 

They are counting everyone in Hospital WITH COVID.... ie if you trip and break your hip and when you are admitted you test COVID positive you are classed as a COVID hospitalisation!!

 

"‘Up to half’ of NSW Covid hospital patients went in for something totally different and were positive in routine testing"

 

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/up-to-half-of-nsw-covid-hospital-patients-went-in-for-something-totally-different-and-were-positive-in-routine-testing/news-story/603db6feed20422b3e8b57fd0e159fdb

 

 


sbiddle
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  #2842443 3-Jan-2022 13:32
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Sup:

13% rise in hospitalizations in NSW in a single day. Can anyone see a problem here?



No, not at this point.

Scott3
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  #2842446 3-Jan-2022 13:39
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NZ media release:

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/almost-three-thousand-vaccines-administered-27-community-cases-44-hospital-5-icu

 

24 cases at the border in the single day. and these are all people who have passed departure tests. Wow.

 

Domestic situation is pritty much steady which I think is great given we are just past Christmas and new years.

 

 

 

 

 

NSW reported 20,794 cases today. As noted by sup, hospitalization numbers are aggressively trending upwards:

 

 

Worrying thing is that they are reporting 3x the case numbers they were 10 days ago, so we can expect this trend to continue.

 

As noted some people recorded are in hospital for something unrelated, but I am finding the ICU trend in particular worrying.

 

NSW 95 cases scaled to NZ's population is 59. I think that would be extremely problematic for NZ given we have around 180 staffed ICU beds total. (yes we have more physical beds, but I don't think we can count on scrambling staff for them in a covid-19 wave where many staff get infected themselves and need to isolate)

 

 

 

 


vexxxboy
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  #2842448 3-Jan-2022 13:45
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i would be a bit suspect on the icu number being omicron cases since only a week or so a go the NSW chief health officer said there were no onicrom cases in the icu, have they been sorted into Delta and omicrom cases or are they just covid cases.





Common sense is not as common as you think.


gzt

gzt
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  #2842462 3-Jan-2022 14:46
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tdgeek:

rugrat:


No prosecution for DJ. As don’t want to risk damaging future cases from cooperating with New Zealand’s public health response.


https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300489658/covid19-dj-who-broke-miq-rules-and-took-omicron-into-community-set-to-avoid-prosecution


And it wasn't blatant or non-cooperative, benefit of the doubt. 


Dunno about that. The Waiheke Island photo was deleted. Still don't know about his activities there or transport to and from the island.

Sup

Sup
366 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2842474 3-Jan-2022 14:58
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wellygary:

 

Sup:

 

13% rise in hospitalizations in NSW in a single day. Can anyone see a problem here?

 

 

Yes, But there is a big problem with the data.... so they are really flying blind 

 

They are counting everyone in Hospital WITH COVID.... ie if you trip and break your hip and when you are admitted you test COVID positive you are classed as a COVID hospitalisation!!

 

"‘Up to half’ of NSW Covid hospital patients went in for something totally different and were positive in routine testing"

 

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/up-to-half-of-nsw-covid-hospital-patients-went-in-for-something-totally-different-and-were-positive-in-routine-testing/news-story/603db6feed20422b3e8b57fd0e159fdb

 

 

 

 

People are not seeing the bigger picture. Incidental cases are not good for hospitals. They are only stats fodder for epidemiologists and the home stats guy (and weirdly they are the porn of the Covid deniers too).

 

The problem with your hypothetical patient is that they now need significantly more time and more resources which places further strain on the workers and on the system in terms of discharge times and bed clearance.

 

People with emotional stress, like being told you have Covid heal slower than people without that complication. Peoples ability to heal is also hampered by a viral process.

 

For some conditions, for example every diabetic in your hospital, and or every patient with hypertension, are now higher risk, which means increased monitoring, more recording, and more verbal hand overs.

 

It also means introducing a Covid treatment protocol which requires busy Nurses, to contact busy Doctors, to add new medicines or for the go ahead to start a standing order.

 

Then there are the patients who now cannot start their rehab till three to four days later due to the lack of energy to mobilise with that new hip. And this also means more patients that need assistance with toileting, showering, bed baths.

 

The patient with clotting disorders just became significantly more complex. The Cardiac patients chest pain now needs clarification.

 

Everyone of your five patients in now on surveillance testing for Covid.

 

You get Covid while at work, a mentally degrading experience that everyone was prepared for, because day on day your ward has been throwing up positives, you now have to contact trace yourself in terms of who your work place contacts were.

 

You have to set up a lot phone contact with patients families who are not allowed to visit, you are now fielding twice as many calls per day as family cannot come see for themselves how their loved one is doing.

 

The patient with fractured ribs and the punctured lung has just come back Covid positive.

 

And I am not even doing the job justice here, there is a lot more going on than that little snap shot....and these workers are sometimes pulling seventeen hours of it and patients are not eating....they have fevers....you are having to set up IV fluids for them...run for the next bell....all five bells are going....

 

This idea of incidental cases as a positive in the health care system is a very narrow way to misunderstand the totality of health system pressure and why some people who may not even have Covid...will die because there are no crucial extra seconds in a day to check on them.

 

And for health care workers, they see the Politician on TV saying how well hospitals are holding up because of a bunch of numbers which they down play by saying 'they are not in there for Covid...that is the good news".

 

And you have a six week Tsunami building.

 

I do not envy these workers, they are in for a living hell.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 





Just keep swimming...


frankv
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  #2842478 3-Jan-2022 15:20
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wellygary:

 

Sup:

 

13% rise in hospitalizations in NSW in a single day. Can anyone see a problem here?

 

 

Yes, But there is a big problem with the data.... so they are really flying blind 

 

They are counting everyone in Hospital WITH COVID.... ie if you trip and break your hip and when you are admitted you test COVID positive you are classed as a COVID hospitalisation!!

 

"‘Up to half’ of NSW Covid hospital patients went in for something totally different and were positive in routine testing"

 

 

My interpretation is that there's a large pool of near-asymptomatic covid cases in NSW (as stated in the article), so that when a random person has an accident there's a small but significant chance that they will also be covid-positive.

 

A family in NSW I'm related to has covid in their household. They are isolating at home, as directed by the authorities. They told us that they were told to *not* come into hospital unless they were really sick (i.e. needing oxygen). So all the NSW patients that are being admitted *because* of covid are really sick, but there's relatively few of them. And there's a large number with covid (maybe unknown, maybe not) at home, breaking hips and having heart attacks and consequently going to hospital. In this context, "üp to half went in for something different" isn't surprising at all.

 

I expect that the hospitals would record the admission reason for every admission; that's a *very* standard thing to record. So it's a bit surprising that they are reporting counts of covid-positive patients. But I wouldn't be surprised if that was what they were asked to report by whoever in the State government was doing the press releases. Conversely, the "üp to half" is vague and pretty much meaningless, and suggests that the reporter hasn't bothered to ask the right question.

 

I'd expect that the people doing the actual planning of management of covid in NSW would be using the correct stats, and have much better data, so wouldn't be "flying blind".

 

 


Sup

Sup
366 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2842480 3-Jan-2022 15:24
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sbiddle:
Sup:

 

13% rise in hospitalizations in NSW in a single day. Can anyone see a problem here?

 



No, not at this point.
I have been watching these waves for a long time, admittedly too long and too many waves...in too many countries.

 

The problematic infection versus admission to hospital scenario for New Zealand is unfolding in NSW. You can see now what is coming for us.

 

I am talking about health system problems, not alarmist impacts for healthy individuals who are vaccinated.

 

The most alarming trend in NSW is the rate of increase per day with admissions looks to be escalating.

 

Brad Hazzard the NSW minister for health did claim the other day that the admissions are being driven by Delta, so there is that. However it does serve warning around loosening restrictions and the resurgence of a Delta wave underlying an Omicron wave if true.

 

If the data is transferable to a NZ then we really need to see a slow down in NSW soon. Perhaps that is possible with a 20% positivity rate now.

 

And bear in mind the omicron wave in South Africa lasted six weeks, it peaked at four and subsided two weeks after that.

 

In essence I see a big problem for Regional NZ and the largest Polynesian city in the world.





Just keep swimming...


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