2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2870237 17-Feb-2022 12:19

[quoted] SJB:

Some people will now have been vaccinated for many months. How much will the protection given by the vaccine have waned?

As the most vulnerable were vaccinated early doesn't that mean they will have the least protection as the omicron variant spreads.

[/quoted]

This study was more about Delta than Omicron:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01699-1

The relative effectiveness against symptomatic disease 14-34 days after a BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) booster after a ChAdOx1-S (Astrazeneca) and BNT162b2 as a primary course ranged from around 85 to 95%. Absolute VE ranged from 94-97% and was similar in all age groups. Limited waning was seen 10+ weeks after the booster. Against hospitalisation or death absolute effectiveness of a BNT162b2 booster ranged from around 97% to 99% in all age groups irrespective of the primary course with no evidence of waning up to 10 weeks.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220214/booster-effectiveness-wanes-after-4-months-study-shows

During the time when the Omicron variant dominated, the vaccines provided 87% effectiveness against emergency room visits and 91% effectiveness against hospitalizations two months after the booster, the study showed. Four months after the booster shot, effectiveness dropped to 66% against ER visits and 78% against hospitalizations.

tdgeek

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#2870240 17-Feb-2022 12:26

Jas777:

We are lucky in that we can still do this to some degree, being an Island nation with a relatively small population at the bottom of the world. If we were a European country with land borders then MIQ, Manadates etc would be next to useless with Omnicron and would have to let Omnicron have it's wave.

On the wave, yes if we were landlocked everyone will catch Covid. As we are not land locked whats the scenario here?

1. Omicron goes through NZ but measures and mandates (while the latter is in place) reduce the spread, and Omicron dies out, so not everyone gets infected.

2. It infects everyone and doesnt die out, as it can still infect vaccinated people and spread to other vaccinated and unvaccinated people, so it never runs out of hosts. Plus its at International Arrivals every day.

Jas777

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#2870251 17-Feb-2022 12:39

tdgeek:

Jas777:

We are lucky in that we can still do this to some degree, being an Island nation with a relatively small population at the bottom of the world. If we were a European country with land borders then MIQ, Manadates etc would be next to useless with Omnicron and would have to let Omnicron have it's wave.

On the wave, yes if we were landlocked everyone will catch Covid. As we are not land locked whats the scenario here?

1. Omicron goes through NZ but measures and mandates (while the latter is in place) reduce the spread, and Omicron dies out, so not everyone gets infected.

2. It infects everyone and doesnt die out, as it can still infect vaccinated people and spread to other vaccinated and unvaccinated people, so it never runs out of hosts. Plus its at International Arrivals every day.

By catching Covid do you mean being exposed to it or for it to actually take hold in a person? If the latter then everyone will not catch it.

Omnicron will die out, but it will be replaced by something different. Covid is never going away, what form it takes in the future is the question no one knows the answer to.

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#2870255 17-Feb-2022 12:45

Jas777:

By catching Covid do you mean being exposed to it or for it to actually take hold in a person? If the latter then everyone will not catch it.

Omnicron will die out, but it will be replaced by something different. Covid is never going away, what form it takes in the future is the question no one knows the answer to.

I've read that, while Im boosted I can catch it, its in my airways, I can give it to you. So instead of being infected and a carrier Im just a carrier, as for a period of time what I inhaled is in my airways, it grows till the immune system helped by the vaccine nabs it. But in that timeframe Im a spreader, albeit less than if I was unvaxxed. Hence why I feel it wont die out, it can roll around host to host still. Why I ask is back in the day the thing was stamp it out. Due to lockdowns. This means there are no hosts as the streets are literally empty. But in a mandated Omicron world, the streets are lined with somewhere for my Omicron to live before my immune systems removes it.

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#2870317 17-Feb-2022 13:13

1573 new cases but only an extra 7 in hospital.

wellygary

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#2870332 17-Feb-2022 13:32

tdgeek:

1573 new cases but only an extra 7 in hospital.

Chris Billington is estimating R rate is ~2.7 with doubling 3.5 days, so well likely hiy 5K cases and stage 3 by the end of next week/.

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#2870349 17-Feb-2022 13:50

tdgeek:

1573 new cases but only an extra 7 in hospital.

so far the 2-3 people in hospital for every 200 cases on average is still holding which is good

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2870394 17-Feb-2022 15:17

Jas777:

By catching Covid do you mean being exposed to it or for it to actually take hold in a person? If the latter then everyone will not catch it.

Omnicron will die out, but it will be replaced by something different. Covid is never going away, what form it takes in the future is the question no one knows the answer to.

There is an increasingly convincing school of thought that the 1889-1890 pandemic, originally known as 'Russian Flu', was actually a coronavirus pandemic. If so then it was caused by OC43 which still circulates today but doesn't cause any serious health outcomes despite the original pandemic having a devastating death toll.

If that pandemic is an indication of what to expect from this one, then Omicron may not evolve into anything more than another endemic common cold virus.

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#2870411 17-Feb-2022 15:27

wellygary:
tdgeek:

1573 new cases but only an extra 7 in hospital.

Chris Billington is estimating R rate is ~2.7 with doubling 3.5 days, so well likely hiy 5K cases and stage 3 by the end of next week/.

Good the faster the peak the better

wellygary

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#2870425 17-Feb-2022 15:47

Batman:
wellygary:

Chris Billington is estimating R rate is ~2.7 with doubling 3.5 days, so well likely hiy 5K cases and stage 3 by the end of next week/.

Good the faster the peak the better

Yip, its now in 300+ schools around the country so I suspect case numbers will really start heading up in the next 2 weeks,

BUT, it should mean that we might be getting back to "normal"- what ever that will be, by Easter...

- which would be very helpful given there are school holidays around that time.......

JPNZ

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#2870457 17-Feb-2022 16:44

Not good news in the middle of a pandemic...

"Thousands of public health staff, including contact tracers and those processing Covid-19 tests, have voted to strike as the Government prepares for the rising wave of Omicron cases.

About 10,000 district health board staff will strike after 15 months of negotiations failed to reach an agreement, PSA organiser Will Matthews said. Two 24-hour strikes are planned for March 4 and 18."

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wellygary

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#2870461 17-Feb-2022 16:51

JPNZ:

Not good news in the middle of a pandemic...

"Thousands of public health staff, including contact tracers and those processing Covid-19 tests, have voted to strike as the Government prepares for the rising wave of Omicron cases.

About 10,000 district health board staff will strike after 15 months of negotiations failed to reach an agreement, PSA organiser Will Matthews said. Two 24-hour strikes are planned for March 4 and 18."

You've really got to admire the chutzpah of the Union though .....

The first strike date is two weeks away so they are hoping to get the govt to put some more $$$ on the table...

lets see who blinks

mattwnz

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#2870481 17-Feb-2022 17:27

tdgeek:

Jas777:

We are lucky in that we can still do this to some degree, being an Island nation with a relatively small population at the bottom of the world. If we were a European country with land borders then MIQ, Manadates etc would be next to useless with Omnicron and would have to let Omnicron have it's wave.

On the wave, yes if we were landlocked everyone will catch Covid. As we are not land locked whats the scenario here?

1. Omicron goes through NZ but measures and mandates (while the latter is in place) reduce the spread, and Omicron dies out, so not everyone gets infected.

2. It infects everyone and doesnt die out, as it can still infect vaccinated people and spread to other vaccinated and unvaccinated people, so it never runs out of hosts. Plus its at International Arrivals every day.

I think the problem for NZ is the future variants. Omicron is just the virus at this point in time, but we aloo have other variants here, including Delta, and also it look's like an earlier variants has managed to leak in according to the MOH stats, unless it is a border case. But opening the border will also let in earlier variants.

Potentially we could have killed off Delta as the paths of transmission seemed to drop off over xmas and we were getting less and less cases and hospital cases even after lockdown. But as we head into winter and more and mor people are inside and our ventilation systems in NZ aren't great , and our homes are cold and damp, and many houses overcrowded, IMO it is not going to be great. PLus people can get reinfected, and I think we still have about 1 million people who are not vaccinated. Maybe les now with more children slowly getting vaccinated, which will hopefully slow down transmission.

mattwnz

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#2870483 17-Feb-2022 17:32

vexxxboy:

tdgeek:

1573 new cases but only an extra 7 in hospital.

so far the 2-3 people in hospital for every 200 cases on average is still holding which is good

But hospital cases lag infection by weeks. Which is why in Oz they are getting a lot of hospital cases appearing, when the daily case numbers have dropped back. Those hospital cases are often for cases reported weeks ago as their illness worsens. This is the problem with this virus, it lulls people into a false sense of security that the numbers don't look too bad. But as seem in Oz, it suddenly rockets up.

ezbee

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#2870509 17-Feb-2022 18:11

Australian lag in hospitalization going up and going down.
We may need to be prepared for a long tail looking at Australian figures, and it seems a number of places.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

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