2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 2319 | 2320 | 2321 | 2322 | 2323 | 2324 | 2325 | 2326 | 2327 | 2328 | 2329 | ... | 2429

13735 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 6217

ID Verified

Lifetime subscriber

#2880620 7-Mar-2022 19:32

Oblivian: I can't quite work out if they are being hush about being able to, or there are 2 distinct types.

The approved devices show

Sample type(s): Nasal, nasopharyngeal, or oropharyngeal swab

But the packaging and instructions are nasal. There may be 2 different packs of course. Or I imagine a heap of people are doing their gobs to be nicer anyway and just not admitting.

i have 2 different types here, one has instructions for throat and nasal and the other just nasal.

to be fair i dont think they care, as long as its seen that people are testing then they can just smile and say its working, and look how good our numbers are.

mattwnz

20520 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4798

#2880777 8-Mar-2022 00:58

andrew75:

We are avoiding PCR tests now because the labs have insufficient capacity to process them. The could only do high numbers when then were pooling samples together - which works fine if they are all negative but as soon as one is positive the entire batch needs to be redone individually.

They were never PCR nose swabs but nasopharyngeal -- the top of the throat accessed via the nose. That is where the viral load is highest.

The RAT tests have a high false negative rate. I am seeing plenty negative for the first few days then all of a sudden positive.

From what I have seen Auckland isn't leveling off. It is a combination of false reassurance from negative RATS, lack of self reporting positives, and lack of swabbing (people wanting to avoid 10 days isolation).

Case numbers don't matter, it is hospitalizations that matter. Not a good time to need to go to hospital or need secondary/tertiary healthcare now . Heaps of non acute stuff now being put off and there will be a huge backlog once all this dies down.

Case numbers do matter to a degree, because as we can now see, as people aren't reporting their results, we actually have no idea what the trend is with infections. So the media are speculating and trying to get experts to say they are at the peak, such as health boards who can only look at the numbers, but experts like Pro Baker doesn't say we are at the peak. They are showing graphs showing that NZ has peaked and dropping, when experts are saying that we could be getting 100k new cases a day, despite the official numbers being 17k. The trend of cases means NZ can prepare for the wave of hospital cases, and if need be bring in some restrictions (eg longer isolation times) to slow down the spread.

It is crazy IMO for the DG at last weeks standup to apparently say we didn't need to report negative tests, yet last night on TVNZ, one of the experts said we do need to report all tests, either positive or negative.

mattwnz

20520 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4798

#2880783 8-Mar-2022 01:20

andrew75:

We are avoiding PCR tests now because the labs have insufficient capacity to process them. The could only do high numbers when then were pooling samples together - which works fine if they are all negative but as soon as one is positive the entire batch needs to be redone individually.

I think they do still have the capacity to do quite a lot. I recall they can do something like up to 10k individual tests a day. But it was the confusion over this recently where the DG had to recently apologize.

Jas777

840 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 111

#2880858 8-Mar-2022 09:27

mattwnz:

Case numbers do matter to a degree, because as we can now see, as people aren't reporting their results, we actually have no idea what the trend is with infections. So the media are speculating and trying to get experts to say they are at the peak, such as health boards who can only look at the numbers, but experts like Pro Baker doesn't say we are at the peak. They are showing graphs showing that NZ has peaked and dropping, when experts are saying that we could be getting 100k new cases a day, despite the official numbers being 17k. The trend of cases means NZ can prepare for the wave of hospital cases, and if need be bring in some restrictions (eg longer isolation times) to slow down the spread.

It is crazy IMO for the DG at last weeks standup to apparently say we didn't need to report negative tests, yet last night on TVNZ, one of the experts said we do need to report all tests, either positive or negative.

100k a day? Based on our population and what has happened in rest of the world we must have the worst immunity in the world in NZ.

Or do they mean 100,000 exposures which may or may not end up in actual covid?

Oblivian

7345 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2117

ID Verified

#2880908 8-Mar-2022 09:30

It's a Briscoes sale

'up to....'

KrazyKid

1247 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 616

#2881162 8-Mar-2022 13:09

Jas777:

mattwnz:

experts are saying that we could be getting 100k new cases a day, despite the official numbers being 17k.

100k a day? Based on our population and what has happened in rest of the world we must have the worst immunity in the world in NZ.

Or do they mean 100,000 exposures which may or may not end up in actual covid?

100,000 a day is based on an estimate of the under-reporting of positive cases because of asympomatic, not being tested or just not logging results.

Recent NZ modelling had the number of unreported cases at 4x the positive test results (no idea how they got that number) and I've read other estimates in other countries at 8x reported cases.

Anyway 4x 17,000 is 68K,
8 x 17,000 is 136K.

You pays your money & takes your pick...

Lego

Shop now for Lego sets and other gifts (affiliate link).

Jas777

840 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 111

#2881172 8-Mar-2022 13:44

KrazyKid:

100,000 a day is based on an estimate of the under-reporting of positive cases because of asympomatic, not being tested or just not logging results.

Recent NZ modelling had the number of unreported cases at 4x the positive test results (no idea how they got that number) and I've read other estimates in other countries at 8x reported cases.

Anyway 4x 17,000 is 68K,
8 x 17,000 is 136K.

You pays your money & takes your pick...

So based on fact 192k cases in last 10 days then there is 760k or 1.52 million actual cases. And by the end of march there will be another 1.7million or 3.5million cases if same number over 10 day period. If it is 8 for every 1 case reported then everyone would have had it by end of march or half the population if 4 times.

GV27

5978 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4212

#2881178 8-Mar-2022 13:52

I can't even find somewhere to buy a test. Yes, I can go and get free ones, but I'm not sure if our kid is symptomatic and I don't have the leeway in my to spend a long time queuing for RATS at a free collection site.

Countdown doesn't have any nearby and the pharmacy across the road or the one 300m from my house doesn't sell them.

wellygary

8816 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5299

#2881183 8-Mar-2022 13:58

KrazyKid:

You pays your money & takes your pick...

Yip, at moment we are pretty much flying blind,

After a previous peak on 3 March of 23.1K we declined with 3 days under 20K, until today when we busted back to a new record of 23.9K... the data is all over the place at the moment,

(Whether we will establish a wave pattern similar to what we saw with PCR tests- driven by lower weekend testing is unclear)

But as to whether there are undiagnosed and unreported cases, the answer is yes, but the degree of undercount is left as an exercise for the reader....

Answers to be submitted here at the end of the outbreak on an A4 page, typed and double spaced..... :)

freitasm

BDFL - Memuneh
80661 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 41084

Administrator

ID Verified

Trusted

Geekzone

Lifetime subscriber

#2881187 8-Mar-2022 14:24

@GV27:

I can't even find somewhere to buy a test. Yes, I can go and get free ones, but I'm not sure if our kid is symptomatic and I don't have the leeway in my to spend a long time queuing for RATS at a free collection site.

Countdown doesn't have any nearby and the pharmacy across the road or the one 300m from my house doesn't sell them.

https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/shop-online/5465/rapid-antigen-tests

Referral links: Quic Broadband (free setup code: R587125ERQ6VE) | Samsung | AliExpress | Wise | Sharesies

Support Geekzone by subscribing (browse ads-free), or making a one-off or recurring donation through PressPatron.

wellygary

8816 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5299

#2881189 8-Mar-2022 14:29

GV27:

I can't even find somewhere to buy a test. Yes, I can go and get free ones, but I'm not sure if our kid is symptomatic and I don't have the leeway in my to spend a long time queuing for RATS at a free collection site.

Countdown doesn't have any nearby and the pharmacy across the road or the one 300m from my house doesn't sell them.

A) Its self declaration of symptoms, if you are unsure then its fine to say they are symptomatic - its the same as it was in the PCR days, if you are unsure get a test..

B) Pretty sure the queues are now well under control... I walked up to one in Wellington yesterday with no walkup queue, while the drive up was only 10 cars long..

Don't Feel they have to be coughing on their death bed, if you are worried go get some RATS....

New World

Shop on-line at New World now for your groceries (affiliate link).

GV27

5978 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4212

#2881205 8-Mar-2022 14:56

wellygary:

A) Its self declaration of symptoms, if you are unsure then its fine to say they are symptomatic - its the same as it was in the PCR days, if you are unsure get a test..

B) Pretty sure the queues are now well under control... I walked up to one in Wellington yesterday with no walkup queue, while the drive up was only 10 cars long..

The one in Westgate is supposedly jamming up the traffic lights to get on the motorway on some days, according to community FB groups, and shuts at 4pm.

Can't really get to any others in work hours nearby.

Chemist Warehouse having store stock is new though, that was "online only" for a while with people warning that their online shipping was generally poor. I'll try to get to one of those on the way home.

KrazyKid

1247 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 616

#2881232 8-Mar-2022 15:34

GV27:

I can't even find somewhere to buy a test. Yes, I can go and get free ones, but I'm not sure if our kid is symptomatic and I don't have the leeway in my to spend a long time queuing for RATS at a free collection site.

Countdown doesn't have any nearby and the pharmacy across the road or the one 300m from my house doesn't sell them.

My local Pak n Save (in Dunedin admittedly) has stock.

It may be worth ringing a nearby New World or Pak n Save if there is one.

lchiu7

6521 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 543

Trusted

#2881241 8-Mar-2022 15:51

GV27:

I can't even find somewhere to buy a test. Yes, I can go and get free ones, but I'm not sure if our kid is symptomatic and I don't have the leeway in my to spend a long time queuing for RATS at a free collection site.

Countdown doesn't have any nearby and the pharmacy across the road or the one 300m from my house doesn't sell them.

I guess we must be luckier in Welly. One of my wife's friends reported picking up some at a local church (5 minute wait) and at a testing station in Taranaki Street (10 minute wait with most of that time confirming their number).

No personal experience since I am not (knock on wood) experiencing any symptoms so I can't comment what it might be like later on.

Staying in Wellington. Check out my AirBnB in the Wellington CBD. https://www.airbnb.co.nz/h/wellycbd PM me and mention GZ to get a 15% discount and no AirBnB charges.

trig42

5889 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2094

ID Verified

#2881242 8-Mar-2022 15:53

I saw a massive pile of them at Chemist Warehouse in Hamilton over the weekend.

Our local Four Square is selling them ($13 cheaper than CW too for a pack of 5) on Waiheke Island as well.

If you are in Westgate, pop along the motorway to Albany (Stadium carpark h) - I got a pack there last Friday, took about 10 minutes at most. Just have to tell them you have symptoms (though, they may let you pick up a test for a child without the child being present).

1 | ... | 2319 | 2320 | 2321 | 2322 | 2323 | 2324 | 2325 | 2326 | 2327 | 2328 | 2329 | ... | 2429