2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2885382 12-Mar-2022 18:10

mattwnz:

Unfortionalety it looks like we are getting close to the stage of double digit deaths.

except that we're not.

still waiting on which deaths are directly caused by covid and which deaths are not.

i wish the media ... oh well no point wishing ...

antonknee

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#2885384 12-Mar-2022 18:26

Batman:

mattwnz:

Unfortionalety it looks like we are getting close to the stage of double digit deaths.

except that we're not.

still waiting on which deaths are directly caused by covid and which deaths are not.

i wish the media ... oh well no point wishing ...

You need to let this go. The reality is that you're not going to get the sort of fine grain detail you appear to be looking for - but the reality is it doesn't really matter. It's probably not going to make a massive difference to the numbers if you could exclude them. Plus if someone dies of something (like myocarditis or lung failure or what have you) and they also have Covid, you have no real way to know how much of an impact Covid had on the other issue - was it exacerbated or accelerated etc. It is well established that having Covid is not generally beneficial to one's health.

tdgeek

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#2885434 12-Mar-2022 18:42

Batman:

mattwnz:

Unfortionalety it looks like we are getting close to the stage of double digit deaths.

except that we're not.

still waiting on which deaths are directly caused by covid and which deaths are not.

i wish the media ... oh well no point wishing ...

Im a bit over studying data these days. But, every day we get 20,000 plus or minus cases. So in 5 days that another 100,000, but the hospital cases are remarkably stable. Not exponential.

tdgeek

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#2885435 12-Mar-2022 18:46

antonknee:

You need to let this go. The reality is that you're not going to get the sort of fine grain detail you appear to be looking for - but the reality is it doesn't really matter. It's probably not going to make a massive difference to the numbers if you could exclude them. Plus if someone dies of something (like myocarditis or lung failure or what have you) and they also have Covid, you have no real way to know how much of an impact Covid had on the other issue - was it exacerbated or accelerated etc. It is well established that having Covid is not generally beneficial to one's health.

I agree. What miffs me a little is discussion over Covid, NZ, etc, vs whinging and complaining.

Go back to March 26 2020. We locked down, someone else said its too much its too soon, after saying they would have gone sooner. Its about Covid. Not about politics, there is a thread for that

gzt

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#2885445 12-Mar-2022 20:07

mattwnz: I read that they hadn't been planning for this number of hospitilsations from covid in Auckland and it has exceeded the modeling at this stage.

I'd be interested to read that. My feeling is people are being very lax now, and not understanding the potential seriousness of the situation. It's better not to get it, and it's better not to take chances and pass it on unknowingly.

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#2885446 12-Mar-2022 20:11

Found it thanks Matt..

TVNZ: Auckland hospitals are dealing with far more Covid-19 patients than they predicted in even their worst case scenarios.

It was predicted that Auckland would be most like South Australia - but in fact, in terms of hospitalisations, it had surpassed even the New York scenario.

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Jas777

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#2885519 13-Mar-2022 10:46

TVNZ: Auckland hospitals are dealing with far more Covid-19 patients than they predicted in even their worst case scenarios.

It was predicted that Auckland would be most like South Australia - but in fact, in terms of hospitalisations, it had surpassed even the New York scenario.

I bet they did have a scenario that this may happen but didn't publish it for obvious reasons.

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#2885528 13-Mar-2022 11:44

We will never know, @Jas777. The Ministry of Health and the Director-General have an annoying tendency of either stating 'not in the public interest' or 'this would draw too many people away from handling the pandemic' whenever you submit an OIA request on something politically sensitive.

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Rikkitic

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#2885540 13-Mar-2022 12:16

antonknee:

You need to let this go. The reality is that you're not going to get the sort of fine grain detail you appear to be looking for - but the reality is it doesn't really matter. It's probably not going to make a massive difference to the numbers if you could exclude them. Plus if someone dies of something (like myocarditis or lung failure or what have you) and they also have Covid, you have no real way to know how much of an impact Covid had on the other issue - was it exacerbated or accelerated etc. It is well established that having Covid is not generally beneficial to one's health.

Ultimately, everyone dies of heart failure.

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MaxineN

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#2885555 13-Mar-2022 13:26

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/14494-community-cases-896-hospital-18-icu-8-deaths

I think it's too early to call it that we've peaked.

People could just not be testing/reporting their results.

Weekend results have certainly been lesser but maybe there is a silver lining?

I'm not an expert and I'm not gonna start being one. Going to be on the fence with today's numbers.

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

quickymart

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#2885564 13-Mar-2022 14:03

If cases keep dropping though, even say by Tuesday, that's a good sign.

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mattwnz

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#2885571 13-Mar-2022 14:28

MaxineN:

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/14494-community-cases-896-hospital-18-icu-8-deaths

I think it's too early to call it that we've peaked.

People could just not be testing/reporting their results.

Weekend results have certainly been lesser but maybe there is a silver lining?

I'm not an expert and I'm not gonna start being one. Going to be on the fence with today's numbers.

The daily numbers now are so inaccurate that we just can't tell. Many people aren't reporting their tests. IMO they should be using the 500 contact tracers they sacked, to phone up people they have given tests to. Much of NZ will be rising for weeks. Auckland maybe nearing a peak. The hospital cases appear to be the only way we can tell, but one issue is that people maybe catching it in hospital which maybe affecting numbers too.

tdgeek

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#2885577 13-Mar-2022 14:55

mattwnz:

The daily numbers now are so inaccurate that we just can't tell. Many people aren't reporting their tests. IMO they should be using the 500 contact tracers they sacked, to phone up people they have given tests to. Much of NZ will be rising for weeks. Auckland maybe nearing a peak. The hospital cases appear to be the only way we can tell, but one issue is that people maybe catching it in hospital which maybe affecting numbers too.

You're right, but we can tell. If the ratio of reporters to non reporters remains the same, and no reason to say it wont, the trend is reasonably accurate. A graph with a line of daily case numbers and hospital cases would give an even better guide

vexxxboy

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#2885757 14-Mar-2022 07:54

so far the only person holding out from catching covid in our house is the person who had the booster 6 months after his last vaccine, everyone else was 4 months. Coincidence ?

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Jase2985

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#2885807 14-Mar-2022 08:17

vexxxboy:

so far the only person holding out from catching covid in our house is the person who had the booster 6 months after his last vaccine, everyone else was 4 months. Coincidence ?

probably not

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