2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2886627 15-Mar-2022 16:45

Hammerer:

I don’t think we’ve peaked. It would be good if we did but I can see several reasons why this is less likely to occur:

1. Auckland hospitalisation is not really going down yet in any graphs I’ve seen. Maybe new hospitalisations are slowing but the more important stat is how many are currently hospitalised reflecting seriousness of disease and difficulties in treatment.

2. The general trend outside of Auckland is increasing hospitalisation. Anecdotally, this week there are 3-5X as many infections in my region. They will push up hospitalisations next week

3. As Covid becomes more widespread and as hospitalisations increase then the risk increases that more vulnerable people will be hospitalised or remain hospitalised for longer. I think this is partly why Auckland figures aren’t improving. I also suspect that, as in general, care is not as good in less well resourced hospitals so when all hospitals are under greater load then I’d expect hospital stays to lengthen.

These are from todays 1pm

Northern region ( Ak + Northland)

Hospitalisations

tdgeek

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#2886655 15-Mar-2022 18:15

freitasm:

I'd like to see the list of people who got covid while in hospital for something else. Someone in my family (not at my home) was in the hospital for eight days for something completely unrelated. On day nine this person developed a temperature and tests showed positive for covid.

Yes

That means Covid was caused by the hospital, completely fair.

EDIT

Poorly worded. What I meant was its everywhere. Caused by hospital employees or not, who knows. But the numbers show that hospital numbers arent Covid numbers. But as you stated, they can be. With hospital numbers being the last remaining metric left, they need to be split out. So we know who went there just for Covid. In your example, lets say the Covid was mild, so dont count that. Or it was serious, so count that

Given that Omicron is milder, the key metric is mild or not mild. Or, homes fine or need hospital.

We are on 200,000 cases n the last 2 weeks or so, its about Covid in hospital for Covid

KrazyKid

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#2886713 15-Mar-2022 20:34

Hammerer:

I don’t think we’ve peaked. It would be good if we did but I can see several reasons why this is less likely to occur:

1. Auckland hospitalisation is not really going down yet in any graphs I’ve seen. Maybe new hospitalisations are slowing but the more important stat is how many are currently hospitalised reflecting seriousness of disease and difficulties in treatment.

2. The general trend outside of Auckland is increasing hospitalisation. Anecdotally, this week there are 3-5X as many infections in my region. They will push up hospitalisations next week

3. As Covid becomes more widespread and as hospitalisations increase then the risk increases that more vulnerable people will be hospitalised or remain hospitalised for longer. I think this is partly why Auckland figures aren’t improving. I also suspect that, as in general, care is not as good in less well resourced hospitals so when all hospitals are under greater load then I’d expect hospital stays to lengthen.

Also here are the daily cases by region per 100,000. You can clearly see Auckland peaking and the rest of the country still going up/starting to level off (maybe).
(Wellington seems to have a weird low number for today and Tairawhiti is going skywards.)

Source: RNZ daily graphs

tdgeek

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#2886716 15-Mar-2022 20:46

KrazyKid:

Also here are the daily cases by region per 100,000. You can clearly see Auckland peaking and the rest of the country still going up/starting to level off (maybe).
(Wellington seems to have a weird low number for today and Tairawhiti is going skywards.)

Source: RNZ daily graphs

Is there a hospital bed count that can be overlaid on that (allowing for the delay factor)

KrazyKid

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#2886739 15-Mar-2022 22:52

The same rnz page linked above had hospital numbers per 100,000.
None of the regions seems to have numbers that are peaking yet.

richms

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#2886744 15-Mar-2022 23:05

freitasm:

I'd like to see the list of people who got covid while in hospital for something else. Someone in my family (not at my home) was in the hospital for eight days for something completely unrelated. On day nine this person developed a temperature and tests showed positive for covid.

That is why I am being extra risk averse at the moment. Hospitals are full of sick people so its the last place you want to be.

Also not seeing the dentist or going to the optomitrist for a checkup because again, seeing other people up close.

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Hammerer

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#2886804 16-Mar-2022 00:04

wellygary:

Hammerer:

I don’t think we’ve peaked. It would be good if we did but I can see several reasons why this is less likely to occur:

1. Auckland hospitalisation is not really going down yet in any graphs I’ve seen. Maybe new hospitalisations are slowing but the more important stat is how many are currently hospitalised reflecting seriousness of disease and difficulties in treatment.

…

These are from todays 1pm

Northern region ( Ak + Northland)

…

Hospitalisations

In each case, I was referrring to current hospitalisation numbers which is the peak that really matters. Along with deaths, it is a better indicator of the severity of the disease.

Hospitalisation admission rates by themselves are less useful. If it is mainly older sicker people going in then that is generally much worse than younger healthier admissions. And if the hospital system is going to be overwhelmed it will likely be with those most severe cases likely to lead to death.

vexxxboy

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#2887077 16-Mar-2022 11:51

Having covid and recovered makes going out to places a liberating activity, i dont worry about people without masks , restaurants are now go again at least for another few months and you lose any fear of what covid may hold for you. my anxiety levels are now at an all time low.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

trig42

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#2887109 16-Mar-2022 12:36

vexxxboy:

Having covid and recovered makes going out to places a liberating activity, i dont worry about people without masks , restaurants are now go again at least for another few months and you lose any fear of what covid may hold for you. my anxiety levels are now at an all time low.

Same, though I'm not allowed out again until tomorrow. I have no fear of it now (to be fair, I didn't have a huge amount of it before testing positive, but I had a wee pang of apprehension when the second line showed up just over a week ago).

I'm quite glad we've (wife and I) both now had it, and luckily we got a 'mild' case of it. Definitely knew we had it, and given the choice I'd miss it again if I could, but I'm not going to hide away from it.

CruciasNZ

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#2887165 16-Mar-2022 14:19

vexxxboy:

Having covid and recovered makes going out to places a liberating activity, i dont worry about people without masks , restaurants are now go again at least for another few months and you lose any fear of what covid may hold for you. my anxiety levels are now at an all time low.

Not trying to be a prat here mate, but hybrid immunity (having it results in preventing it) hasn't held up well overseas. I personally have a friend that's had COVID 3 times by now (1st time before vax, 2nd time between dose 1 & 2, 3rd time after booster, range of different vaccines i.e. not just all phizer), which is why she quit her nursing role and now manages a dog grooming business. What I'm saying is enjoy the sun shining, but temper expectations long term.

On the upside, I am hearing a LOT of stories where people have flatmates or loved ones (same household) who get COVID but they don't, all boosted. Seems that the booster, masks, and sensible movements have been working REALLY well which is heartening to hear. My friends overseas have either lived alone or been quarantined in hotels when they got COVID, so didn't have a direct pool of experience to draw conclusions from on this front.

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#2887180 16-Mar-2022 15:07

CruciasNZ:

On the upside, I am hearing a LOT of stories where people have flatmates or loved ones (same household) who get COVID but they don't, all boosted. Seems that the booster, masks, and sensible movements have been working REALLY well which is heartening to hear. My friends overseas have either lived alone or been quarantined in hotels when they got COVID, so didn't have a direct pool of experience to draw conclusions from on this front.

Or they just have great T cells which get rid of it before it takes affect. Some people could be in a room with a Covid infectious person, not be wearing a mask or boosted and still not get it.

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vexxxboy

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#2887263 16-Mar-2022 16:20

CruciasNZ:

vexxxboy:

Having covid and recovered makes going out to places a liberating activity, i dont worry about people without masks , restaurants are now go again at least for another few months and you lose any fear of what covid may hold for you. my anxiety levels are now at an all time low.

Not trying to be a prat here mate, but hybrid immunity (having it results in preventing it) hasn't held up well overseas. I personally have a friend that's had COVID 3 times by now (1st time before vax, 2nd time between dose 1 & 2, 3rd time after booster, range of different vaccines i.e. not just all phizer), which is why she quit her nursing role and now manages a dog grooming business. What I'm saying is enjoy the sun shining, but temper expectations long term.

On the upside, I am hearing a LOT of stories where people have flatmates or loved ones (same household) who get COVID but they don't, all boosted. Seems that the booster, masks, and sensible movements have been working REALLY well which is heartening to hear. My friends overseas have either lived alone or been quarantined in hotels when they got COVID, so didn't have a direct pool of experience to draw conclusions from on this front.

im just going on what the health department is telling me , i dont have to isolate for 3 months from close contacts and i am only talking about omnicrom where the consensus is that it is very rare to catch it again within a month or 2 of having it. There is also a good chance i have had the B A 2 variant which is also a plus plus 3 vaccinations as well.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

DS248

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#2887442 17-Mar-2022 00:04

NSW case numbers jumped significantly from 7-day average of ~12,700 to over 30,000 yesterday.

Trend is up in NSW & ACT, and flat at best in Vic and QLD. Haven't bothered to plot NT, SA or Tas. WA cases still rising (at a slower rate than others plotted).

Overall remarkably similar overall per capita trends in NZ & various AU states (though each at different points on the curve).

'Days' approximately adjusted so that peak in each case is at ~40 -43 days)

Y-scale is cases per day per million population

vexxxboy

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#2887491 17-Mar-2022 09:16

DS248:

NSW case numbers jumped significantly from 7-day average of ~12,700 to over 30,000 yesterday.

Trend is up in NSW & ACT, and flat at best in Vic and QLD. Haven't bothered to plot NT, SA or Tas. WA cases still rising (at a slower rate than others plotted).

Overall remarkably similar overall per capita trends in NZ & various AU states (though each at different points on the curve).

'Days' approximately adjusted so that peak in each case is at ~40 -43 days)

Y-scale is cases per day per million population

they seem to think it is the new variety of Omicrom, the B A 2 strain which is why NZ is in an ideal position because our cases now are mainly the B A 2 variety so we wont get the next wave when things drop off.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

quickymart

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#2887537 17-Mar-2022 11:10

SJB:

quickymart:

This is pretty appalling too.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/01/geraldine-cafe-under-fire-for-comparing-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-to-holocaust.html

Any Cantabrians care to weigh in on this place? This is shocking.

The owner outed himself as an anti everything and a QAnon supporter (why do you think it's called Q Foods?) a few months back in our local Geraldine paper. He also played propaganda videos that were audible outside the cafe as well as plastering all the windows with stickers with the most ridiculous slogans. It's an eyesore.

He obviously has a death wish as far as his business is concerned. The average age of a Geraldine resident is probably in the mid 60's and they simply won't poke up with that sort of 'carry on'.

I don't know if the place is closed although it always looks like it is but it is only a matter of time.

Better late than never.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-geraldine-cafe-q-foods-fined-for-breaching-rules/EF7A5ZWEJMC3AC6SUEJSOAW65E/

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