2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2914155 15-May-2022 10:12

wellygary:

Batman:

TLDR

1. they don't test so you will never know the rates

2. they don't seem to be dying like flies (anyone still following MOH all cause mortality who knows what they die of raw data?

3. logic: no it's not covid it's the flu. umm but they said covid is like the flu. no?

Self reporting case number stats are pretty much worthless, I only look at hospitalisation data.....

It's becoming clear that people are not testing, and/or not isolating if they are a Household contact..

There is pretty much nothing that can be done about any of this.... and I expect Orange to continue through Winter....

@wellygary

Yes I only look at hospital data too

Age and ethnicity of deaths within 28 days of being reported as a case: 103 under age of 59
Age and ethnicity of deaths where to COVID-19 officially coded as the underlying cause: 44 under the age of 59

What one can do is wear a mask or play Covid lotto

PolicyGuy

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#2914331 15-May-2022 21:13

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300588389/covid19-updated-vaccine-pass-available-soon-as-current-ones-due-to-expire-shortly

Updated versions of the Covid-19 My Vaccine Pass will soon be available, as current passes are set to expire in the coming weeks.

From May 24, updated My Vaccine Passes will be available to download for those aged 12 and over who are up to date with their vaccination. For those 18 and over, it will include booster doses.

The updated pass will look slightly different with a refreshed design (but it will still have a QR code), and will have an expiry date of six months from the date of issue, the Ministry of Health has advised.

Oblivian

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#2914332 15-May-2022 21:16

Most people are going 'what the hell for - not needed anymore' 'Waste of money' etc etc

But the door was left too open not to re-issue. When it is left up to the complex/business if they wish to ensure visitors have one. Still have customers that want ours on file etc.

tdgeek

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#2914350 16-May-2022 07:36

Oblivian:

Most people are going 'what the hell for - not needed anymore' 'Waste of money' etc etc

But the door was left too open not to re-issue. When it is left up to the complex/business if they wish to ensure visitors have one. Still have customers that want ours on file etc.

In case there is a new need to add restrictions? While Omicron is milder, the level of transmission nowadays is massive. All it takes is an Omicron variant that is more damaging, with Winter, with a potential run of flu to make Omicron worse. Until we can say that its going away, systems need to be there if needed

Oblivian

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#2914351 16-May-2022 07:44

I know that, you know that

The media and rest of public are on the bash however. Not the ones that needs it explained to :)

Their primary focus was the additional outsourcing costs.

lchiu7

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#2914363 16-May-2022 08:54

Seen on Forbes but a referral from another site

Pfizer’s Covid Vaccine Protection Against Omicron Fades Just Weeks After Second And Third Doses, Study Finds

This is the original article

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2792295?resultClick=3

and the one in Layman's terms :-)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/05/13/pfizers-covid-vaccine-protection-against-omicron-fades-just-weeks-after-second-and-third-doses-study-finds/?sh=345a802d32af

Since we have most of our eggs in the Pfizer basket I wonder with the Government contemplating the 2nd booster if Novavax might be an option to evaluate

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trig42

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#2914374 16-May-2022 09:26

Surely, Pfizer et al are still developing the vaccine?

Why haven't we heard about it being updated for Omicron etc.? They got the mRNA vaccine out in record time, and we've heard nothing about updates to it (or, at least I haven't).

Are we going to rely on an antiviral?

Personally, not so keen on another booster if it's only going to give a couple of weeks of protection, and I'm not the only one with that opinion.

DS248

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#2914575 16-May-2022 14:36

lchiu7:

Seen on Forbes but a referral from another site

Pfizer’s Covid Vaccine Protection Against Omicron Fades Just Weeks After Second And Third Doses, Study Finds

This is the original article

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2792295?resultClick=3

and the one in Layman's terms :-)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/05/13/pfizers-covid-vaccine-protection-against-omicron-fades-just-weeks-after-second-and-third-doses-study-finds/?sh=345a802d32af

Since we have most of our eggs in the Pfizer basket I wonder with the Government contemplating the 2nd booster if Novavax might be an option to evaluate

Those results are similar to those from a (much larger) study of children and adolescents.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2792524

Association of Prior BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccination With Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children and Adolescents During Omicron Predominance

"Findings In a test-negative, case-control study conducted from December 2021 to February 2022 during Omicron variant predominance that included 121 952 tests from sites across the US, estimated vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection for children 5 to 11 years of age was 60.1% 2 to 4 weeks after dose 2 and 28.9% during month 2 after dose 2. Among adolescents 12 to 15 years of age, estimated vaccine effectiveness was 59.5% 2 to 4 weeks after dose 2 and 16.6% during month 2; estimated booster dose effectiveness in adolescents 2 to 6.5 weeks after the booster was 71.1%."

In terms of a 4th dose, it would be much better to provide the option for Moderna rather than Pfizer. Though its effectiveness still declines, it is reasonably well documented that Moderna generally provides longer lasting protection than Pfizer (including when used as a booster for people who had Pfizer primary doses).

Novavax may be another option but I have not yet seen any research on its effectiveness against Omicron when used as a booster on top of Pfizer primary doses.

And of course the performance of all options against future variants is unknown / currently unknowable.

elpenguino

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#2914579 16-May-2022 14:52

Hmm. 16-30% effective in the 2nd month? So, basically useless.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

mkissin

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#2914581 16-May-2022 14:56

Against symptomatic infection. We've known for ages that wasn't great.

The more important data is the protection against hospitalization and death.

DS248

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#2914619 16-May-2022 15:13

A well set out chart comparing the effectiveness and safety of the five 'main' western vaccines. Last updated 6 May 2022.

Unfortunately, limited info on waning effectiveness (& that mostly buried in text).

Very limited data for Novavax. Nothing on Safety.

FDA limits use of Janssen to only those not able or willing to receive an mRNA vaccine because of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome risk.

https://secure.medicalletter.org/downloads/1621g_table.pdf

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mclean

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#2914625 16-May-2022 15:26

elpenguino: Hmm. 16-30% effective in the 2nd month? So, basically useless.

From the same report, effectiveness against emergency department and urgent care visits was 45% for adolescents (on the full dose) and 51% for children (on the reduced dose).

DS248

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#2914666 16-May-2022 16:02

'Interesting' (read 'puzzling') RNZ article: Covid surges in Australia: 'The numbers are extraordinary'

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/467152/covid-surges-in-australia-the-numbers-are-extraordinary

To quote:

According to global databases, Australia led the world in per-capita Covid-19 infections (if you ignore the tiny islands of Montserrat, Anguilla and The Falklands).
Saturday's numbers moved the official seven-day average to more than 48,000 daily cases
... hospitalisations and deaths are also tracking upwards, with the average number of Covid-related daily deaths hitting 40, doubling since March
... the numbers we are seeing in Australia are extraordinary. So many people are very, very sick.
...

Reported by RNZ but not a single mention of the situation in NZ. Despite our current 7-day average death rate (16.9) being considerably higher per capita than the 40 quoted for AU; that is, NZ = 3.3 deaths/day/million people vs 1.54 in Australia. So yes, double the deaths per capita in Australia.

And not just per capita, more than double as a proportion of reported cases:

NZ = 16.9 deaths / 7705 = 2.0 deaths per 1000 cases
AU = 41.6* deaths / 49,852* = 0.8 deaths per 1000 cases.

All values = daily numbers averaged over the last 7 days (* Note: have updated the RNZ article values to current as reported today, 16/5/2022)

Yes the text, though not the photos, is straight from this article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-15/covid-infections-in-australia-among-worlds-highest/101062364

But telling that ABC cared to mention "the tiny islands of Montserrat, Anguilla and The Falklands" but ignored tiny NZ across the ditch. And RNZ did nothing to correct that.

DS248

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#2914673 16-May-2022 16:25

Of more concern is the way the powers that be here continue to downplay our death numbers;

daily average currently more than 17x our average daily road death toll (imagine the response if that was 17x higher)
more than double the rate in AU* - not to mention the current rates in the US, UK, Germany, France, Japan (0.3 deaths/day/million vs 3.3 here), ...

Even the peak in Japan at the start of March was < 2 deaths/day/million.

When the number here is high; eg. 29 on 12 May it is quickly pointed out that the number includes past deaths (not mentioning that means the earlier reported figures were too low)

johno1234

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#2914686 16-May-2022 17:45

DS248:

Of more concern is the way the powers that be here continue to downplay our death numbers;

daily average currently more than 17x our average daily road death toll (imagine the response if that was 17x higher)
more than double the rate in AU* - not to mention the current rates in the US, UK, Germany, France, Japan (0.3 deaths/day/million vs 3.3 here), ...
Even the peak in Japan at the start of March was < 2 deaths/day/million.

When the number here is high; eg. 29 on 12 May it is quickly pointed out that the number includes past deaths (not mentioning that means the earlier reported figures were too low)

New Zealand has comparatively high rates of obesity, asthma and diabetes - all associated with increased morbidity.

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