2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2449219 29-Mar-2020 09:27

dogstar001:
networkn:

Ashley Bloomfield is currently my hero!

He got his first day off in quite some time.

NZ'r of the year for me so far.

Why? He Spent all of February & early March reassuring us about a "low risk of a community outbreak". He was wrong , we now have a community outbreak, have had to shut the country down & face a severe recession.

100% agree.

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#2449226 29-Mar-2020 09:40

I know there are limited resources, but are they doing any random testing to get a gauge of actual spread?

Why test only obviously symptomatic people when even if the test comes back negative they still class them as a probable case and treat them the same as if the result were positive?

I think it will become apparent in the coming days that they are beyond the point of contact tracing being feasible anyway, and if they redeployed testing randomly they could at least get a gauge on how widespread it really is. That would be far more helpful for coming up with medium to long term plans.

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#2449228 29-Mar-2020 09:41

dogstar001:

Why? He Spent all of February & early March reassuring us about a "low risk of a community outbreak". He was wrong , we now have a community outbreak, have had to shut the country down & face a severe recession.

CT is low. We have been importing cases for a long while, CT is still low. I guess we could have shut the country down on Jan 26 and avoided CT and avoided a recession...Lockdowned already for two months and Kiwis stuck offshore, yeah right. Fact is we did our best, that worked for a good while, minimising economic downturn, then we acted. Whatever new cases or CT is out there now, its now 99.9% quarantined. Theoretically, as from Thursday, there will be no spread at all. Cures are happening right now. That is off course subject to how excellent the public is.... And if CT is supposedly more than what Dr Bloomfield suggested, we all know who to blame.

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#2449231 29-Mar-2020 09:46

tdgeek:

dogstar001:

Why? He Spent all of February & early March reassuring us about a "low risk of a community outbreak". He was wrong , we now have a community outbreak, have had to shut the country down & face a severe recession.

CT is low. We have been importing cases for a long while, CT is still low. I guess we could have shut the country down on Jan 26 and avoided CT and avoided a recession...Lockdowned already for two months and Kiwis stuck offshore, yeah right. Fact is we did our best, that worked for a good while, minimising economic downturn, then we acted. Whatever new cases or CT is out there now, its now 99.9% quarantined. Theoretically, as from Thursday, there will be no spread at all. Cures are happening right now. That is off course subject to how excellent the public is.... And if CT is supposedly more than what Dr Bloomfield suggested, we all know who to blame.

won't need to shutdown if we have border screening, border quarantine, instead of handing out pamphlets. ie active border management with heightened awareness. instead we employ the there's no problem we have it under control (aka she'll be right). we laugh at all the other western countries but we use the same approach. we just lucky because of our geographic situation.

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#2449232 29-Mar-2020 09:46

tdgeek:

CT is low. We have been importing cases for a long while, CT is still low. I guess we could have shut the country down on Jan 26 and avoided CT and avoided a recession...Lockdowned already for two months and Kiwis stuck offshore, yeah right. Fact is we did our best, that worked for a good while, minimising economic downturn, then we acted. Whatever new cases or CT is out there now, its now 99.9% quarantined. Theoretically, as from Thursday, there will be no spread at all. Cures are happening right now. That is off course subject to how excellent the public is.... And if CT is supposedly more than what Dr Bloomfield suggested, we all know who to blame.

I'd bet good money that CT is far from low. Without randomised testing they have no idea how many mild or asymptomatic cases are in the community.

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#2449234 29-Mar-2020 09:52

Paul1977:

I know there are limited resources, but are they doing any random testing to get a gauge of actual spread?

Why test only obviously symptomatic people when even if the test comes back negative they still class them as a probable case and treat them the same as if the result were positive?

I think it will become apparent in the coming days that they are beyond the point of contact tracing being feasible anyway, and if they redeployed testing randomly they could at least get a gauge on how widespread it really is. That would be far helpful for coming up with medium to long term plans.

I feel the idea is to nab infections and trace them. To track local transmission and shut that down before it becomes CT. The could test you and me today, but they then need to do it again next week and the week after. If we random tested, thats pretty hit and miss and wasting time more so than resources. If a case presents to a doctor or MoH, whether we test or not, they get sent home for 14 days. If people feel they may have any possible symptoms, they go home for 14 days. That was the theory anyway, required the public buy in. If we massive tested earlier then the same people would still be doing the 14 days.

Like a lot of this, its easier to discuss after hindsight.

Alert 4 is

Sustained and intensive transmission
Widespread outbreaks

We have sustained transmission, although not intensive. We have widespread outbreaks geographically, but not numerically. Alert 4 is go hard go early. IMHO

Bottom line is, the virus now has nowhere to go, its not leakproof but its heavily leakproof.

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#2449239 29-Mar-2020 09:53

Paul1977:

I know there are limited resources, but are they doing any random testing to get a gauge of actual spread?

Why test only obviously symptomatic people when even if the test comes back negative they still class them as a probable case and treat them the same as if the result were positive?

I think it will become apparent in the coming days that they are beyond the point of contact tracing being feasible anyway, and if they redeployed testing randomly they could at least get a gauge on how widespread it really is. That would be far more helpful for coming up with medium to long term plans.

i hope they are. but i have been hoping a lot this year.

tdgeek

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#2449240 29-Mar-2020 09:58

Batman:

won't need to shutdown if we have border screening, border quarantine, instead of handing out pamphlets. ie active border management with heightened awareness. instead we employ the there's no problem we have it under control (aka she'll be right). we laugh at all the other western countries but we use the same approach. we just lucky because of our geographic situation.

Border screening doesn't work. Neither does quarantine, as up till recently the hotels were still used as hotels, and the incoming passengers were huge per day. Now, passengers are low, hotels are empty, it's doable. Not sure where we would have put a few thousand per day for 14 days

Active border management with heightened awareness. Whats that? Look at people to see if they are infected??

Yes we are lucky due to our geographic situation.

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#2449241 29-Mar-2020 09:58

gchiu:
dogstar001:
Why? He Spent all of February & early March reassuring us about a "low risk of a community outbreak". He was wrong , we now have a community outbreak, have had to shut the country down & face a severe recession.

Sadly that seems to be the logical conclusion.

No he didn't. Get your facts right before condemning a colleague.

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#2449245 29-Mar-2020 10:04

This thread seems to be dominated by a handful of people - and I must admit I have largely tuned out as a result due to lots of opinions.

And while acknowledging this is a forum for opinions - I would be interested to know if this handful have any relevant professional training, qualifications or experience to give these opinions any more weight then "Kev from down the pub".

PS: If it looks like I am calling you out, yeah, that is exactly what I am doing.

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#2449247 29-Mar-2020 10:05

tdgeek:

Alert 4 is

Sustained and intensive transmission

Widespread outbreaks

We have sustained transmission, although not intensive. We have widespread outbreaks geographically, but not numerically. Alert 4 is go hard go early. IMHO

Bottom line is, the virus now has nowhere to go, its not leakproof but its heavily leakproof.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think your assessment is overly optimistic.

Without randomised testing how can we we know we don't have intensive transmission and/or numerically widespread outbreaks? I thought it was pretty widely accepted that the vast majority of cases had only mild (or even no) symptoms?

And NZers aren't good at doing what they're told. I think we probably have a lot of pretty leaky bubbles out there.

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#2449248 29-Mar-2020 10:06

Bahaha I think I'll listen to and follow actual experts who have studied this and worked in the field for years over Batman who simply says "won't need to shutdown if we have border screening, border quarantine, instead of handing out pamphlets. ie active border management with heightened awareness."

tdgeek

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#2449249 29-Mar-2020 10:06

Paul1977:

I'd bet good money that CT is far from low. Without randomised testing they have no idea how many mild or asymptomatic cases are in the community.

We can see CT as a % of cases. It took a good while to find one. Even though we cant test everyone, doctors send people home as does MoH, that must severely cut down unknown spread. CT is like cases, the cases we have are what we tested, there are others, and they will have been sent home for 14 days. Now, its getting bigger, and while we can and do contact trace a huge number of people, its harder, so we go to lockdown.

If we tested random asymptomatic cases its a negative result, so we let them go. So IMO that random test would not change the problem.

The argument is could we have locked down Jan 26? We could have, but we aren't mind readers. We could also have locked out Kiwis and travellers very early on, cant really do that for Kiwis and residents , so we had to grin and bear letting SO MANY in every day, and thats where the tests were focussed. As that is the source.

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#2449251 29-Mar-2020 10:11

driller2000:

This thread seems to be dominated by a handful of people - and I must admit I have largely tuned out as a result due to lots of opinions.

And while acknowledging this is a forum for opinions - I would be interested to know if this handful have any relevant professional training, qualifications or experience to give these opinions any more weight then "Kev from down the pub".

PS: If it looks like I am calling you out, yeah, that is exactly what I am doing.

I have no professional training, qualifications, or experience in this field that would give any weight to my opinions.

tdgeek

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#2449252 29-Mar-2020 10:11

driller2000:

This thread seems to be dominated by a handful of people - and I must admit I have largely tuned out as a result due to lots of opinions.

And while acknowledging this is a forum for opinions - I would be interested to know if this handful have any relevant professional training, qualifications or experience to give these opinions any more weight then "Kev from down the pub".

PS: If it looks like I am calling you out, yeah, that is exactly what I am doing.

For Covid-19 that person does not exist. There are so many questions that are unanswered by the experts. Thats why the discussion goes as it does, probably. If the global health experts know everything there is to know about this virus there would be little to discuss. In maybe two years time all these unknown will be known for the next outbreak, but right now, no one knows.

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