2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2420923 14-Feb-2020 12:03

The 2/3 probably some guess based on how contagious it is and that initially nobody is immune, so as a pandemic progresses, it reaches a point where enough of the population is immune that one contagious person no longer passes it on to >1 other person, so it fizzles out on its own.

So based on no effective containment of any kind - which seems kind of unlikely. Even if it's still not under control in China, what they are doing with containment is surely having an effect - or cases would have kept increasing at exponential rates - and they are not - it's slowed down considerably.

There are a lot of wildy pessimistic opinions and forecasts out there. Take them with a grain of salt.

frankv

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#2420925 14-Feb-2020 12:07

tdgeek:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/119517245/coronavirus-could-infect-twothirds-of-globe-researcher-says

Researchers get funded according to how important whatever they're researching is. It's in their interests to make their research seem more important than it actually is. Newspapers (or click-through news sites) make more money if a headline sounds more dramatic than it actually is. So it's a positive reinforcement cycle.

Which leads too.... [drum roll]

FrankV's extrapolation of Betteridge's Law: "Could" in any headline can (and should) be replaced by "probably won't"

(Also applies to TV ads, BTW, as in: "This product could make you more attractive")

kingdragonfly

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#2421035 14-Feb-2020 14:54

tdgeek:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/119517245/coronavirus-could-infect-twothirds-of-globe-researcher-says

I dont follow this. He says 2/3 of the global population might get infected. Due to China's lack of containment, but also notes that the other countries are containing it very well.

NZ has no containment policy, we arent keeping it out, its largely free inwards transit. The UK super spreader, who was supposed to contain him? The countries he travelled through, but they didn't.

So, if everyone else is doing a good job containing it, what's the issue, how will that cause 2/3 of the globe to get infected?

Is this researcher playing the game Plague Inc?

Dengue virus (DENV) is one of the most common viral diseases of the past 30 years, but I've never met anyone who had it.

mattwnz

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#2421080 14-Feb-2020 15:32

Fred99:

The 2/3 probably some guess based on how contagious it is and that initially nobody is immune, so as a pandemic progresses, it reaches a point where enough of the population is immune that one contagious person no longer passes it on to >1 other person, so it fizzles out on its own.

So based on no effective containment of any kind - which seems kind of unlikely. Even if it's still not under control in China, what they are doing with containment is surely having an effect - or cases would have kept increasing at exponential rates - and they are not - it's slowed down considerably.

There are a lot of wildy pessimistic opinions and forecasts out there. Take them with a grain of salt.

It s difficult to know how many people are actually infected, due to the long lead in time of showing symptoms. So any containment that was done two weeks ago will only be showing in results now. I had read last week, that it is likely over half a million are currently infected, just many are not showing symptoms yet. Also some will only have very mild symptoms, where they may not even think anything of it, and would likely not be included in the numbers, unless they are actually tested for it. I wouldn't be surprised if it was already in NZ.

The 2/3 of the population getting it is similar to a story I read on it a while ago, which if it has a mortality rate of 1%, that would be around 50 million deaths. It may probably be higher in third world countries than the west. We also don't know if the west are more immune to it and will have milder symptoms.

I notice that this afternoon , the NZ government has sent out an email to NZ business owners about how the Coronvirus may affect businesses. For some reason they are still not calling it by it's official name.

frankv

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#2421094 14-Feb-2020 15:49

mattwnz:

It may probably be higher in third world countries than the west. We also don't know if the west are more immune to it and will have milder symptoms.

I'd guess that the west would be *less* immune than Chinese, just because the west would have had less exposure to it. I'm guessing that over the millenia there have probably been outbreaks of Covid-19 in China, except no-one knew it was any different from the common cold, except some people died of it. So natural selection could have resulted in some resistance to the virus in the Chinese population. Without exposure, western genes won't carry any resistance.

Third world death and infection rates are likely to be more to do with poor hygiene, crowding, and lack of hospitals than genetics.

wellygary

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#2421101 14-Feb-2020 16:02

frankv:

I'd guess that the west would be *less* immune than Chinese, just because the west would have had less exposure to it. I'm guessing that over the millenia there have probably been outbreaks of Covid-19 in China, except no-one knew it was any different from the common cold, except some people died of it. So natural selection could have resulted in some resistance to the virus in the Chinese population. Without exposure, western genes won't carry any resistance.

But Based on that premise Ebola would be less deadly in Africa than in the West... most recent outbreaks would not back that up...

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Beccara

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#2421107 14-Feb-2020 16:28

Even if they had an immunity the Virus has overcome it and quite well. Western populations might have a better response to it but also maybe not. I would say the primary protections we're seeing in action is better overall health due to lower smokers count and better hygiene

Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated

Fred99

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#2421113 14-Feb-2020 16:30

frankv:

mattwnz:

It may probably be higher in third world countries than the west. We also don't know if the west are more immune to it and will have milder symptoms.

I'd guess that the west would be *less* immune than Chinese, just because the west would have had less exposure to it. I'm guessing that over the millenia there have probably been outbreaks of Covid-19 in China, except no-one knew it was any different from the common cold, except some people died of it. So natural selection could have resulted in some resistance to the virus in the Chinese population. Without exposure, western genes won't carry any resistance.

Third world death and infection rates are likely to be more to do with poor hygiene, crowding, and lack of hospitals than genetics.

I doubt it. A mutation that allowed it to become as contagious as it is P2P but with gradually decreasing virulence approaching the "common cold", then it would have become endemic, just like the two other coronaviruses that cause colds endemic in our species.
The two coronaviruses that cause some cases of the common cold, you could guess that they were probably much more virulent when the virus first crossed the species barrier.
SARS isn't so good (if you're lucky enough to survive it) at immunising you long term - you could catch it twice. There's no vaccine for the common cold either.

There was a BS (and racist) CT in circulation stating that Chinese people were more susceptible. That's been debunked. The supposed idea was that Chinese people have more ACE2 receptors in lung tissue. That's not true. Smokers have more ACE2 receptors in bulk tissue samples taken from lung cancer victim cadaver's lungs, and plenty of people in China smoke. But even then it's not (yet?) a proven fact that the virus protein spike binds to ACE2 receptors - nor is it proven in any way that mechanism (more receptors) makes any difference at all to how easily the virus is contracted or transmitted. So, there's lots of half-facts, then extended to wild hypothesis, that hypothesis taken up in layers until the whole internet seems to be drowning in BS.

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#2421137 14-Feb-2020 17:08

kingdragonfly:

Is this researcher playing the game Plague Inc?

Dengue virus (DENV) is one of the most common viral diseases of the past 30 years, but I've never met anyone who had it.

I have been vaccinated ?? against Dengue fever. I was one of 712 adults aged 18 to 60 (655 vaccine recipients, 57 placebo recipients) who were part of a double blind study in Australia in October 2010 from the Pasteur Institute in Paris for the first Dengue Fever vaccine. This vaccine was a modified Yellow Fever vaccine where they used DNA cut out of the Yellow Fever component and DNA spliced in the Dengue Fever component and it was to prevent infection from the 4 known serotypes of dengue viruses which are transmitted by mosquitoes. I received 3 doses of the vaccine over an 11 month period.

A year after the end of the study I was informed that I had received the actual vaccine.

But 4 years later I was informed that though I had received the actual vaccine I may not be fully vaccinated as the dose I received may have been to weak as findings from children aged between 2 to 14 (6851 vaccine recipients, 3424 placebo recipients) in Vietnam and also in Latin America children aged between 9 to 16 (13,920 vaccine recipients, 6949 placebo recipients) indicated that the protective efficacy was questionable as there were still hospitalised cases of Dengue Fever in those that had been vaccinated. All hospitalisations were in children under 14. The good news is that all infected children recovered faster and completely.

As to the implications in these findings for me and other adult vaccine recipients, it is very much unclear. We all are to still take mosquito precautions when in dengue fever affected areas.

It was during my initial, very comprehensive, medical that I discovered I had blood pressure problems. I was paid A$600 in Shell petrol vouchers and given a Dengue Fever area world map and a can of mosquito repellent.

So as you can see from the above, the road that researches have to travel to come up with an effective vaccine whether it be Dengue Fever or COVID-19 is long and may not be successful.

There are no take a pill & go home miracles.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

FineWine

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#2421157 14-Feb-2020 18:03

Fred99:

I hate to post this, as it's a favourite example used by anti-vaxxers of a stuff-up that shouldn't have happened, but you should probably know if you don't already.

https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/prevention/dengue-vaccine.html

A vaccine to prevent dengue (Dengvaxia®) is licensed and available in some countries for people ages 9-45 years old. The World Health Organization recommends that the vaccine only be given to persons with confirmed prior dengue virus infection.

The vaccine manufacturer, Sanofi Pasteur, announced in 2017 that people who receive the vaccine and have not been previously infected with a dengue virus may be at risk of developing severe dengue if they get dengue after being vaccinated.

INTERESTING

The last communication, Oct 2018, I had from the study was to tell me that if I every, upto Dec 31st 2021, became infected with Dengue Fever that ALL my medical, wherever in the world, would be fully covered, including transport back to my home country.

I am in mind to communicate back to them quoting the above cdc link and what implications that has for me.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Fred99

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#2421161 14-Feb-2020 18:11

I deleted that post because I didn't want to cause alarm - was going to PM you but too late.

If you read the wikipedia article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy

It's looking like a storm in a teacup that was exacerbated by very poor communication between everybody involved.

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FineWine

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#2421222 14-Feb-2020 20:41

@ Fred99

Thank you for the above info. I have emailed the trial manager asking for clarification, veracity and validity of various aspects of press releases and articles that have appeared concerning the dengue fever vaccine and in particular those who participated in the CYD17 trial and its future effects and efficacy on us as participants.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Batman

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#2421247 14-Feb-2020 23:04

another coronavirus govt critic disappears. reported by hong kong news.

tdgeek

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#2421277 15-Feb-2020 08:39

frankv:

mattwnz:

It may probably be higher in third world countries than the west. We also don't know if the west are more immune to it and will have milder symptoms.

I'd guess that the west would be *less* immune than Chinese, just because the west would have had less exposure to it. I'm guessing that over the millenia there have probably been outbreaks of Covid-19 in China, except no-one knew it was any different from the common cold, except some people died of it. So natural selection could have resulted in some resistance to the virus in the Chinese population. Without exposure, western genes won't carry any resistance.

Third world death and infection rates are likely to be more to do with poor hygiene, crowding, and lack of hospitals than genetics.

Have corona virus strains only ever existed in China?

Sidestep

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#2421309 15-Feb-2020 09:31

tdgeek:

Have corona virus strains only ever existed in China?

Coronavirus are everywhere.

We were talking with an epidemiologist recently who studies Bovine coronavirus infections in feedlot cattle. Particularly the respiratory disease (shipping fever) that spreads through cattle when they're shipped from feedlot to feedlot..(the cattle equivalent of widebody jets)

Bovine coronavirus is closely related to the human coronavirus OC43 that causes the common cold, and - it's thought - may be the original source.

Betacoronaviruses such as bovine and SARS coronaviruses can infect other animal species, and have been shown to infect dogs, turkeys, wild ruminants like Sambar deer, waterbucks, giraffes, white-tailed deer - even Llama and Alpacas.

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