2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2407291 27-Jan-2020 07:11

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Beccara:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Helpful website keeping tabs on things

Going by some commentary here, everything that everyone else, or any other article sats is bunkum, or incorrect or nonsense.

Instead of taking a swipe at other posters to this forum, how about providing some citations from reputable sources to refute criticism of things you seem to be claiming are unfair accusations of "bunkum".

There's presumably nothing wrong with the link Beccara posted, it's probably linking official stats to a mapping app to give an interesting graphical representation - not inventing things, though it did appear to look like the confirmed cases in Aus were somewhere near Alice Springs.

I wasnt taking a swipe at "other" posters, nor Beccara's link

FineWine

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#2407540 27-Jan-2020 14:28

Now this is starting to become real scary 👹: From the BBC - A new coronavirus that has spread to more than 2,000 people is infectious in its incubation period - before symptoms show - making it harder to contain, Chinese officials say. As the article goes on to say; Without symptoms, a person may not know they have the infection, but still be able to spread it.

During the SAR's outbreak, when I worked in Sydney Westmead Kids, I volunteered, if required, to live on the Infectious Ward. Thankfully was not required. But if the above is true then NOBODY is safe.

Remember only full well fitting face respirators are safe. Ordinary cloth or paper face masks over nose and mouth are helpful but will only stop large droplet particles plus the fact that most people do not fit these face masks properly. These virus's can even enter via the eyes as well. Remember on average we touch our face 3 to 4 times per hour. Good hand washing with soap and warm water for 30 seconds is also required.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

maoriboy

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#2407578 27-Jan-2020 15:09

Looks like it has jumped the creek to NZ and being reported in Rotorua - possibly I might add.

https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/232860-three-taken-to-hospital-suspected-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR1yd1N_UIQR4zanvlkkrsr8nf_eYhqGweF9C2zIQvFlMt5th4NXVMk8j14

Members of a tour group have been assessed for novel coronavirus infection at Rotorua Hospital.

Three members of a tour group of 19 were assessed at the hospital yesterday as public health services were alerted that they may have been exposed to someone with the coronavirus.

The tour group arrived in Auckland on Saturday evening from Australia and then travelled to Rotorua.

Scary stuff!

Oblivian

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#2407579 27-Jan-2020 15:11

Good to see the country has receded back into usual racism and exclusion.

This is a common theme on all of today's articles posted where people have an outlet. That or blaming Jacinda for the health sectors comments that it is only a matter of time etc.

surfisup1000

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#2407586 27-Jan-2020 15:14

A friend is trapped in wuhan....with her 3yr old boy.

networkn

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#2407587 27-Jan-2020 15:16

To give some perspective, 1700 people die a week in China from the "regular" Flu....

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surfisup1000

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#2407593 27-Jan-2020 15:35

networkn:

To give some perspective, 1700 people die a week in China from the "regular" Flu....

And more die in car crashes, but that is irrelevant. The standard flu is a known quantity, and a flu vaccine exists.

This is a new virus that jumped the species barrier ... and can spread human to human. Information is scarce but no doubt we will get a better idea over the coming weeks.

I'm remaining cautious and NZ authorities seem to be taking the right steps.

Oblivian

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#2407594 27-Jan-2020 15:36

Age groups? Were they immunised against the strain? Previous health issues? True figure and not skewed by mis reporting or not being reported at all?

I guess the big difference is the flu is largely know about, how it's transmitted, when you have in some cases 80-94?% inoculation per population to cover (would appear some age groups in china as little as 5-8%) which yes, may look scary like that compared. And yearly/ regular figures can be attributed. But this is too infantile. 12 months time what's to say that number isn't double with this strain.

Still too new to know if No-one is potentially protected for it. If/how transmission human-human can occur, how fast or if able to be transferred during the (assumed) 2 week incubation period.

It's possibly been around since Nov, and quite likely the figures out don't reflect - previous cases may have been put down to old age or respiratory failure.

Damn, refresh before post - someone beat me.

MikeB4

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#2407596 27-Jan-2020 15:38

I have a suppressed immune system and this scares me. Given that most masks are ineffective and the life span of the virus it is going to be very difficult to stay safe.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

Rikkitic

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#2407658 27-Jan-2020 16:44

MikeB4: I have a suppressed immune system and this scares me. Given that most masks are ineffective and the life span of the virus it is going to be very difficult to stay safe.

I am elderly with compromised lung function and I get flu jabs every year. At my age I am not particularly scared, but I am concerned for others. As with most things, I hope for the best.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2407659 27-Jan-2020 16:49

Oblivian:

Good to see the country has receded back into usual racism and exclusion.

This is a common theme on all of today's articles posted where people have an outlet. That or blaming Jacinda for the health sectors comments that it is only a matter of time etc.

These seem to me like silly comments from frightened people. Fear makes otherwise reasonable people do ugly things.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2407679 27-Jan-2020 17:47

I wonder if we are getting the full story out of China. They have mobilized better than with SARS, but I've read a few "unofficial" reports that as many as 100K have it in China, not 2K. Whether its deliberate or they just dont know due to the long incubation period, it's a worry.

There was a story about a doctor who died while treating a patient, was that doctor already sick, or is it simply
scaremongering? Surely it cant kill people immediately after contact.

I added the new Netflix doc "Pandemic" to my watch list on the weekend, might watch it tonight. Probably not the best idea, I'll freak out!

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#2407743 27-Jan-2020 19:46

There was a story about a doctor who died while treating a patient, was that doctor already sick, or is it simply
scaremongering? Surely it cant kill people immediately after contact.

I believe the doctor who died was infected through their eyes after briefly removing their goggles. The eye fluid is an ideal vector. There was no suggestion that the infection progressed at an abnormal rate.

Fred99

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#2407855 27-Jan-2020 22:54

MileHighKiwi: I wonder if we are getting the full story out of China. They have mobilized better than with SARS, but I've read a few "unofficial" reports that as many as 100K have it in China, not 2K. Whether its deliberate or they just dont know due to the long incubation period, it's a worry.

It's an unofficial report of an "best guess" from a very well qualified source / expert in epidemiology of emerging diseases.

The present tally of confirmed cases has problems. I understand the the rRT-PCR tests in China are taking 2-5 days after the patient presents with symptoms for a result, so the confirmed cases will lag actual cases. Then, apparently in some cases, symptoms are mild, so the patients probably won't seek help - and that's not quantifiable. On the other hand, after mild initial symptoms like a cold with maybe a fever, a few days later you could be in respiratory distress and coughing up blood.

Still many unknowns - it'll be clearer in another week - about the time when WHO are scheduled to reconvene to decide whether or not to declare a global emergency.

Fred99

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#2407862 27-Jan-2020 23:18

From and article published in Lancet about the first 41 cases:

The most common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38; table 1). More than half of patients (22 [55%] of 40) developed dyspnoea. The median duration from illness onset to dyspnoea was 8·0 days (IQR 5·0–13·0). The median time from onset of symptoms to first hospital admission was 7·0 days (4·0–8·0), to shortness of breath was 8·0 days (5·0–13·0), to ARDS was 9·0 days (8·0–14·0), to mechanical ventilation was 10·5 days (7·0–14·0), and to ICU admission was 10·5 days (8·0–17·0; figure 2).

...

All patients had pneumonia. Common complications included ARDS (12 [29%] of 41 patients), followed by RNAaemia (six [15%] patients), acute cardiac injury (five [12%] patients), and secondary infection (four [10%] patients; table 3). Invasive mechanical ventilation was required in four (10%) patients, with two of them (5%) had refractory hypoxaemia and received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as salvage therapy. All patients were administered with empirical antibiotic treatment, and 38 (93%) patients received antiviral therapy (oseltamivir). Additionally, nine (22%) patients were given systematic corticosteroids.

(I don't expect the Oseltamivir helped, IIRC corticosteroids weren't effective with SARS).

A sobering tweet from an Epidemiologist from Harvard:

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