2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 402 | 403 | 404 | 405 | 406 | 407 | 408 | 409 | 410 | 411 | 412 | ... | 2423

BDFL - Memuneh
79263 posts

Uber Geek

Administrator

ID Verified

Trusted

Geekzone

Lifetime subscriber

#2451586 31-Mar-2020 14:59

@Batman:

epidemiologist says NZ were not testing enough, still not testing enough, and doesn't seem to have a plan. Health Minister responds with we're going awesome we've got this.

I didn't listen but who is the epidemiologist?

mattwnz

20147 posts

Uber Geek

#2451587 31-Mar-2020 15:01

freitasm:

who is the epidemiologist?

Epidemiologist is Sir David Skegg

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/sir-david-skegg-lockdown-may-not-be-enough-to-flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/

Does anyone have a link to a reply of that online Zoom video feed?. I watched only watched about the last half. I pretty much agreed with all he said. We should be working to eliminate this, rather than just flatten the curve. He said we should be working at dead lining the curve.Other countries are trying to flatten the curve which is really about trying to manage the cases over a long period of time, but NZ is in the position where we can eliminate it. If we eliminate it, we can get the economy working again properly.

Also IMO we need to quarantine everyone entering NZ, like Australia are now doing. We can't gamble the entire economy on 'trust', that people will do 'self isolation' properly, and IMO these people need to be isolated from any bubble, they need to be in their own isolated bubble.This should now be manageable IMO due to the smaller volumes of people coming back. The PM has said by and large their is compliance with self isolation, but IMO we can't afford for a single person not to follow the requirements.

The PM has also today said that they need to test more people, to get a better picture of what is happening, and more information is needed on the spread. She has said they need to Test Test Test twice, which is what I have been saying for weeks here.

PolicyGuy

1726 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Lifetime subscriber

#2451588 31-Mar-2020 15:01

PM's 15:00 press briefing on RNZ here: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/413040/covid-19-pm-jacinda-ardern-gives-government-update

tdgeek

29746 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2451589 31-Mar-2020 15:02

freitasm:

@Batman:

epidemiologist says NZ were not testing enough, still not testing enough, and doesn't seem to have a plan. Health Minister responds with we're going awesome we've got this.

I didn't listen but who is the epidemiologist?

Sir David Skegg

@Batman can you please stop this? "Health Minister responds with we're going awesome we've got this." He did not say that.

tdgeek

29746 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2451590 31-Mar-2020 15:05

Sir David does not want to mitigate or reduce he wants to eliminate it. He says we could do that in afew weeks. No idea how. Complains that NZ just wants to reduce or mitigate the virus.

He makes it sound easy, so I'm not sure what his MO is

Batman

Mad Scientist
29761 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2451591 31-Mar-2020 15:07

tdgeek:

Sir David Skegg

@Batman can you please stop this? "Health Minister responds with we're going awesome we've got this." He did not say that.

changed it

sbiddle

30853 posts

Uber Geek

Retired Mod

Trusted

Biddle Corp

Lifetime subscriber

#2451592 31-Mar-2020 15:07

dejadeadnz:

sbiddle:

The message is the main problem - and at least part of the that problem (the Police Minister) won't be fronting any media today so at least we're going to have a day without him actually being a significant contributor to the problem of communication and staying on track.

The Police Minister hasn't been at the press conferences, in case you haven't noticed. It's the (outgoing) Police Commissioner.

He's given press conferences on multiple occasions just after the PM has spoken.

And as dfor him being outgoing I don't see what relevance this has - he's still the Police minister. Last week a number of media kept reporting him as the "outgoing Police minister" in their articles, but I notice this week that a couple that were doing that have now removed the word "outgoing"

Lenovo

Shop now for Lenovo laptops and other devices (affiliate link).

Batman

Mad Scientist
29761 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2451593 31-Mar-2020 15:09

tdgeek:

Sir David does not want to mitigate or reduce he wants to eliminate it. He says we could do that in afew weeks. No idea how. Complains that NZ just wants to reduce or mitigate the virus.

He makes it sound easy, so I'm not sure what his MO is

from the feed he wants to test as many people as possible to get an idea of who has the virus, not just those with a travel history or a contact with a known case so that we don't get any surprises when the level 4 is lifted.

Batman

Mad Scientist
29761 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2451602 31-Mar-2020 15:20

freitasm:

@Batman:

epidemiologist says NZ were not testing enough, still not testing enough, and doesn't seem to have a plan. Health Minister responds with we're going awesome we've got this.

I didn't listen but who is the epidemiologist?

updated the post to give a better summary of what he said

tdgeek

29746 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2451603 31-Mar-2020 15:20

mattwnz:

Epidemiologist is Sir David Skegg

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/sir-david-skegg-lockdown-may-not-be-enough-to-flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/

Does anyone have a link to a reply of that online Zoom video feed?. I watched only watched about the last half. I pretty much agreed with all he said. We should be working to eliminate this, rather than just flatten the curve. He said we should be working at dead lining the curve.Other countries are trying to flatten the curve which is really about trying to manage the cases over a long period of time, but NZ is in the position where we can eliminate it. If we eliminate it, we can get the economy working again properly.

Also IMO we need to quarantine everyone entering NZ, like Australia are now doing. We can't gamble the entire economy on 'trust', that people will do 'self isolation' properly, and IMO these people need to be isolated from any bubble, they need to be in their own isolated bubble.This should now be manageable IMO due to the smaller volumes of people coming back.

How?

We can cease all flights that's easy

We cannot lock up every house in NZ, so how do we stop the "trust" bit? I know you are referring to incoming travellers but there are 5 million of us here who are not travellers and some of us are laughing at the virus every hour. That is the problem that cannot be solved, no matter what. Human populations are x% dumbarses, we can't stop that. In fact many law abiding Kiwi's are not playing ball. The lockdown is the best we have to smother the virus, then tackle local small outbreaks

If you can cease ALL flights, lock us all up in our fenceline for 3 weeks, nothing open (we are locked in anyway) it will be gone. But that's not doable. We have the next best option, with no choice but to accept the leaks and manage them as best we can

Batman

Mad Scientist
29761 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2451605 31-Mar-2020 15:22

mattwnz:

freitasm:

who is the epidemiologist?

Epidemiologist is Sir David Skegg

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/sir-david-skegg-lockdown-may-not-be-enough-to-flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/

Does anyone have a link to a reply of that online Zoom video feed?. I watched only watched about the last half. I pretty much agreed with all he said. We should be working to eliminate this, rather than just flatten the curve. He said we should be working at dead lining the curve.Other countries are trying to flatten the curve which is really about trying to manage the cases over a long period of time, but NZ is in the position where we can eliminate it. If we eliminate it, we can get the economy working again properly.

Also IMO we need to quarantine everyone entering NZ, like Australia are now doing. We can't gamble the entire economy on 'trust', that people will do 'self isolation' properly, and IMO these people need to be isolated from any bubble, they need to be in their own isolated bubble.This should now be manageable IMO due to the smaller volumes of people coming back. The PM has said by and large their is compliance with self isolation, but IMO we can't afford for a single person not to follow the requirements.

The PM has also today said that they need to test more people, to get a better picture of what is happening, and more information is needed on the spread. She has said they need to Test Test Test twice, which is what I have been saying for weeks here.

i think he repeated all his points in today's feed. i've given a summary in my previous post now.

tdgeek

29746 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2451608 31-Mar-2020 15:31

Batman:

tdgeek:

Sir David does not want to mitigate or reduce he wants to eliminate it. He says we could do that in afew weeks. No idea how. Complains that NZ just wants to reduce or mitigate the virus.

He makes it sound easy, so I'm not sure what his MO is

from the feed he wants to test as many people as possible to get an idea of who has the virus, not just those with a travel history or a contact with a known case so that we don't get any surprises when the level 4 is lifted.

I know, I watched it. We are doing that, which was always the plan. When you have 60 flights a days coming riddled with infections (as has been proven to be the case) you focus on that huge leak. We are testing about 2000 per day. Will we random test? Thats What Paul Goldsmith wants. If you tested me this week, will you re test me next week??? We cannot test everyone. All we can do is test more, now that flights are out of the way, althought that wont really matter as we are all locked down. IMHO we need mobile tests, anyone who has symptoms we drive over and test. How many of us 5 million need to be tested? Serious question

The is a mathematical puzzle. You want to test everyone bit you cant so how do we manage it, so that we test all potentials and lock them away till cure?

concordnz

472 posts

Ultimate Geek

Trusted

EMT (R)

#2451610 31-Mar-2020 15:38

There is major downsides to testing "all & sundry"
There is 3-4 different places to test, depending on 'where/what stage thie infection is potentially at

Each time you test you have ?4%? error rate - could have 4% 'false positive' every time you test.
= 10,000 of false positive 'red herring', which consume excessive contract tracing and hospital space of people thinking they have it...

Along side that - there is limited chemical/regent, for processing tests,
And limited staff/facilities to perform all these tests, (let alone, collect and dispatch all the material).....

To test those who are showing related symptoms or on near contact - is still the best strategy.

concordnz

472 posts

Ultimate Geek

Trusted

EMT (R)

#2451612 31-Mar-2020 15:43

What YOU can do to help…….

DO
Establish ‘routines’ immediately, and STICK to them!
E.g. Decide on a specific DAY, which you go to the Supermarket, and TIME, and stick to these ROUTINES
Go to only ONE supermarket, and only ONE – (don’t go to two or three different ones, you are increasing your exposure exponentially!) - you CAN do without some stuff!!

Always use the same Checkout Lane,
(if you have a bad memory – pick a number e.g. 2 – and ONLY use Checkout #2, lane #2 etc )
Take your own shopping bags (do small shops, for essentials – and avoid using Trolleys at all if possible)
DON’T Fondle goods on the supermarket Shelf!, ( “you touch it, you have brought it” ) – Don’t even turn the tin around to read the label!
(every time you touch goods, you risk increasing the spread of this disease)

If you need to go to the Petrol Station – again, same rules apply.
Go to the same Petrol station every time!
and ALWAYS use the same fuel lane! (e.g. Lane #2 as above)

These tips,
help both protect YOU,
and also make it far easier/faster, for Police/Health authorities, in ‘CONTACT TRACING’, in the event that you DO catch Covid-19 !!

DON’T
Don’t Order Shiz from overseas!!, like Adrino boards etc, for your ‘pet project’ or any other electronics Crap.

We have major logistical challenges at the moment getting vital items into NZ,
Every time you TRY and order something in from overseas, not only are you causing potential spread, in the country it is from,
you are depriving essential services from getting vital supplies INTO NZ, - YOU are taking up VITAL logistics space!!! – STOP

NOBODY cares when they are lying in a Hospital bed, about your Adrino project, or Lighting Project, or any other silly automation project you might be working on!!!!
They do care, that there are no enough beds or equipment to save the lives of them or their loved ones, because YOU caused delays in getting vital supplies/components into NZ.

And there is a good chance that those Adrino boards, or other electronic components you are taking out of circulation COULD WELL, be used in manufacturing lines, which are trying to get rush built to meet increased demand, of essential supplies & components.

sbiddle

30853 posts

Uber Geek

Retired Mod

Trusted

Biddle Corp

Lifetime subscriber

#2451614 31-Mar-2020 15:47

And "the test" isn't an effective way of knowing who may have had it though. You need two different testing regimes.

Many people are asymptomatic, and once they're recovered a serological test is the only way of testing that and establishing how community spread may have occured.

1 | ... | 402 | 403 | 404 | 405 | 406 | 407 | 408 | 409 | 410 | 411 | 412 | ... | 2423