2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2452016 1-Apr-2020 09:43

Batman:

Correct me if i'm wrong, didn't I keep hearing from TV that we have a low risk of community transmission and then bam, shutdown due to something about community transmission?

I dont recall that. I recall from early on being told we will get cases, and they will grow and we will get CT, and that will grow. We got CT, very low, not much change in that for a period. Then it was deemed that CT is sustained. If by "and then bam" well, the stance was go hard go early so they went early, while CT was still low but growing slowly as in sustained.

PolicyGuy

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#2452027 1-Apr-2020 10:05

msukiwi:
Amazing the number of people walking past here that I have never seen before around here.
And obviously haven't been around here before by what they look at, as if it's the first time they have seen it.
More than pre lock down. Even lycra clad cyclists (I've never seen one here before) several times.
Good to see people exercising,but I do wonder where they all come from.

Maybe usually gym bunnies, or people who normally exercise around their workplace instead of where they live?
Or people who live locally but normally don't exercise, but feel the need to get outside now they're home all the time?

Certainly I've been doing a lot more local walking on suburban streets than I usually do

MadEngineer

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#2452028 1-Apr-2020 10:05

The only reasons I've heard for non-testing is firstly the risk of a false-negative thinking they're in the clear. From this I guess there's a chance these people might make poor choices with their isolation.

Secondly they're not for example testing everyone coming into the country - despite the low numbers - because they are being treated the same as someone that has been tested positively so would only benefit statistics.

You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

MikeAqua

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#2452040 1-Apr-2020 10:26

freitasm:

There is no evidence of herd immunity yet which relies on people developing resistance - but at what cost? That's what vaccines exist for.

8 strains of Coronavirus last I read up on the subject. Tricky vaccine? There are only 2 or 3 strains in the regular flu-jab.

Mike

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#2452042 1-Apr-2020 10:30

Paul1977:

Here's a question:

Lets look at absolute best case that NZ manages to essentially eradicate COVID-19 from our shores, and is able to enforce appropriate border controls to keep it out until a vaccine is available.

Will (or should) the government make vaccination a legal requirement (unless there is a legitimate medical reason that an individual can't be vaccinated)?

Yes, we MUST make it a Legal requirement,
Our Court system is a absolute 'disaster' - with 'simple' child immunization(with no medical reasons not too & prior agreement by both parties to Immunise),
Taking 1-2 years, to work through the system, with unethical Lawyers happily abusing the processes, with no consequences to them - And costing $150,000 !!!
(Anti Vaxxers reconise the absured costs they can cause the other party - so they specifically cause huge costs, to make the other party give up or go bankrupt trying to protect their child)

This is ludicrous and shows the total incompetence of our Legal system, - these decisions need to be take totally out of Court systems Hands -

Fred99

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#2452043 1-Apr-2020 10:32

MikeAqua:

freitasm:

There is no evidence of herd immunity yet which relies on people developing resistance - but at what cost? That's what vaccines exist for.

8 strains of Coronavirus last I read up on the subject. Tricky vaccine? There are only 2 or 3 strains in the regular flu-jab.

They're not really "strains" - just random mutations in non-functional (so far as we know) RNA.

A vaccine would stimulate the immune system to target the protein spike on the virion capsid that the virus uses to bind to the ACE2 receptors on our (mainly epithelial) cells - so unless that protein structure changed, the vaccine should still work.

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tdgeek

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#2452044 1-Apr-2020 10:35

MikeAqua:

freitasm:

There is no evidence of herd immunity yet which relies on people developing resistance - but at what cost? That's what vaccines exist for.

8 strains of Coronavirus last I read up on the subject. Tricky vaccine? There are only 2 or 3 strains in the regular flu-jab.

Watched a really interesting piece on Sky News AU last night. A research centre that has a particle accelerator, takes atom level images of the virus uisng its bright light (10 million times brighter than the Sun) Once they see the design of the virus they can design a vaccine, that I think has a similar makeup, so that the immune system can see it and recognise it and attack it.

https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2020/03/31/australia-enlists-particle-accelerator-in-coronavirus-fight

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/australia/australian-experts-unlocking-covid-19-cure

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Synchrotron

Fascinating

MikeAqua

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#2452045 1-Apr-2020 10:35

Fred99:

MikeAqua:

8 strains of Coronavirus last I read up on the subject. Tricky vaccine? There are only 2 or 3 strains in the regular flu-jab.

They're not really "strains" - just random mutations in non-functional (so far as we know) RNA.

A vaccine would stimulate the immune system to target the protein spike on the virion capsid that the virus uses to bind to the ACE2 receptors on our (mainly epithelial) cells - so unless that protein structure changed, the vaccine should still work.

Define strain?

Mike

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#2452067 1-Apr-2020 10:51

MikeAqua:

Define strain?

"force to make an unusually large effort" :-)

I'll leave taxonomy to taxonomists - so far as I know all the "strains" have the same protein spike functionality.
If you want more info on mutations - then visit https://nextstrain.org/

msukiwi

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#2452104 1-Apr-2020 11:08

And the USA still don't get it!

(Taken from Flightradar just now!)

Fred99

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#2452116 1-Apr-2020 11:23

msukiwi:

And the USA still don't get it!

(Taken from Flightradar just now!)

If you look at flightradar24 over USA, many of the flights are freighters (DHL, Fedex etc). But yeah - still a lot of passenger aircraft movement - even if that's down a lot from normal.

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MadEngineer

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#2452133 1-Apr-2020 11:30

tdgeek:

Watched a really interesting piece on Sky News AU last night. A research centre that has a particle accelerator, takes atom level images of the virus uisng its bright light (10 million times brighter than the Sun) Once they see the design of the virus they can design a vaccine, that I think has a similar makeup, so that the immune system can see it and recognise it and attack it.

https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2020/03/31/australia-enlists-particle-accelerator-in-coronavirus-fight

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/australia/australian-experts-unlocking-covid-19-cure

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Synchrotron

Fascinating

That's not a vaccine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiviral_drug

You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

sbiddle

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#2452134 1-Apr-2020 11:32

msukiwi:

From news.com.au:

"More young women in their 20s have tested positive for the coronavirus in Australia than any other age or sex group, according to Health Department data."

news.com.au is the biggest clickbait news site on the internet so it's hardly surprising they'd run a story like that. Let's look beyond the headline -

It's pretty clear from global statistics that no age group is immune to catching the virus. It affects everybody. What it does do however is affect some age groups (such as the elderly) worse than others.

25-29 year olds make up the biggest age group of the total population, followed by 20-24. In both age groups females outnumber males.

Once community spread has started statistically speaking females in those age group are the largest groups in society, therefore it's not surprisingly they would be the most infected group.

frankv

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#2452181 1-Apr-2020 11:34

tdgeek:

Testing asymptomatic people is a wasted test it will be negative.

Testing asymptomatic and low-risk people was low value, because if the test is negative, they probably don't have the disease (which we already knew, since you were low-risk), but we're still not sure because there's a 5% false-negative rate. So expending a large amount of limited resources moves a few hundred people a day from the low risk to the very low risk group, and 1 or 2 people to the positive group. It gives very little useful information, and really doesn't affect the person's treatment: "Go home and self-isolate. If you do develop symptoms, treat yourself as for flu. If it gets really bad, go to hospital." From an epidemiological point of view, sampling a cross-section of the population to get an estimate of how many people are infected would be useful, but it only gives an estimate at a point in time. The following day the situation will likely be different. And, epidemiologically speaking, the advice is the same: lockdown, because otherwise the caseload will double every 3-7 days.

Testing widely early on was not possible, so high-risk people were tested, where positive results were more likely, and resulted in a different outcome: trace the person's contacts (as well as self-isolation for the person, and PPE for medical staff treating them).

Now we have controlled the spread of the virus through lockdown, and have increased testing capacity by a factor of 8 (from 750 to 5000 tests per day), wider testing is planned, to get the epidemiology information rather than to decide on treatment of the individual.

sbiddle

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#2452184 1-Apr-2020 11:35

Paul1977:

tdgeek: Testing asymptomatic people is a wasted test it will be negative.

Where are you getting that from?

Testing asymptomatic isn't a waste of time, but you need to understand the purpose of the test.

It will only show if you have it at that point in time, it won't tell if you've had it prior. Only an test for antibodies can show that.

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