2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Master Geek
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#2452260 1-Apr-2020 13:10

shk292:

frednz:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/n

I think this article is worth reading because it shows just how much stricter China has been compared to NZ. People here seem to think it's quite OK to go to the beach etc even if it's quite a distance from home.I suppose it keeps people sane doing this, but it may not help us in our fight to stop the virus spreading like wildfire as it has in several places overseas.

This article also deals with the experiences of Wellington lawyer jd Dallas in the the city of Shiyan in China.

Surely a lot of it is to do with population density, ie if you're living in a mega city with millions of other people in very close proximity, total lockdown is the only option.

But here in sparse NZ - even Auckland to some extent - the risk presented by someone walking on a quiet street, or driving a km or two to do the same on a quiet beach, is surely vanishingly small. I'm not saying we should all be living our normal lives or anything even close but there is a safe compromise somewhere to be found

This is a perfect example of the attitude the article is talking about. Just stop. Please, please PLEASE just stay home. For all of us.

amiga500

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#2452264 1-Apr-2020 13:15

Latest figure for Queensland covid cases from 31 March is 743, so remarkably similar to NZ on 708. On 14 March I think NZ had 8 cases, and Queensland either 35 or 38. I had been monitoring the Queensland cases closely. Of course there could be many variable factors in these figures. As of a day or two ago Queensland take away food places were still open.

frankv

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#2452266 1-Apr-2020 13:17

shk292:

Surely a lot of it is to do with population density, ie if you're living in a mega city with millions of other people in very close proximity, total lockdown is the only option.

But here in sparse NZ - even Auckland to some extent - the risk presented by someone walking on a quiet street, or driving a km or two to do the same on a quiet beach, is surely vanishingly small. I'm not saying we should all be living our normal lives or anything even close but there is a safe compromise somewhere to be found

As you say, the risk is in contacting some other person. Certainly in a densely packed city like Tokyo where you might literally brush shoulders with dozens to hundreds of people. But we do all go to a few supermarkets, even farmers who live a long way physically from any other family.

Perhaps think of it in terms of degrees of freedom, in the same way that in NZ there are supposedly 2 degrees of freedom... every person connects to any other person with one or two intermediate friends or friends of friends. According to this model, how many links are you away from someone who has C19? At most 2, so long as there is one case in the country.

The big issue at the moment is how many asymptomatic people have the disease. We have no way of knowing that. Hence the need for widespread testing of asymptomatic people *before* lockdown is lifted.

I happen to live in the Whanganui DHB district, where there are 3 known infected people. All arrived from the USA recently, and I'm told live in the north of the district, and are in self-isolation there. If we *knew* that they were the only 3, it would be safe to allow everyone in the south of the Whanganui District to freely move within that region, and interact with each other in any way. But we don't know how many asymptomatic (or even mildly symptomatic, treating themselves at home) people there are in our region. And, in the absence of control measures like lockdowns, a single case would quickly spread exponentially again.

I guess that, ideally, within 2 weeks, we might expect an infected person to infect all the people in their bubble, if the bubble is small. Within another 2 weeks, all of those people would have recovered (or gone to hospital), and there wouldn't be any live virus left. There would also be a whole lot of people in bubbles who have not been exposed to the virus, but there would be no live virus left in the country. Hence the importance of small bubbles, and of maintaining the lockdown for at least 4 weeks.

kiwifidget

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#2452271 1-Apr-2020 13:22

How rude are our journalists?

Watching yet another 1pm update, and the questions just get shouted out all at once.

Whatever happened to raising your hand and waiting to be asked?

Delete cookies?! Are you insane?!

tdgeek

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#2452275 1-Apr-2020 13:33

kiwifidget:

How rude are our journalists?

Watching yet another 1pm update, and the questions just get shouted out all at once.

Whatever happened to raising your hand and waiting to be asked?

Some are asking questions, some are looking to catch them out or make a dig. I guess its just that journos are there

freitasm

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#2452276 1-Apr-2020 13:35

@shk292:

But here in sparse NZ - even Auckland to some extent - the risk presented by someone walking on a quiet street, or driving a km or two to do the same on a quiet beach, is surely vanishingly small. I'm not saying we should all be living our normal lives or anything even close but there is a safe compromise somewhere to be found

There is no way you should trust some unknown person to be able to determine what is a "safe compromise". John Doe is selfish and will go to the beach- like a few other hundreds. Then stop to buy a beer and things snowball.

Without knowing credentials I do not trust my neighbour to decide what's right or not. For all I know people are stupid. Yes, it's a generalisation but it needs to be done at a baseline.

Stay home.

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frednz

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#2452280 1-Apr-2020 13:40

shk292:

frednz:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/n

I think this article is worth reading because it shows just how much stricter China has been compared to NZ. People here seem to think it's quite OK to go to the beach etc even if it's quite a distance from home.I suppose it keeps people sane doing this, but it may not help us in our fight to stop the virus spreading like wildfire as it has in several places overseas.

This article also deals with the experiences of Wellington lawyer jd Dallas in the the city of Shiyan in China.

Surely a lot of it is to do with population density, ie if you're living in a mega city with millions of other people in very close proximity, total lockdown is the only option.

But here in sparse NZ - even Auckland to some extent - the risk presented by someone walking on a quiet street, or driving a km or two to do the same on a quiet beach, is surely vanishingly small. I'm not saying we should all be living our normal lives or anything even close but there is a safe compromise somewhere to be found

I agree there is a safe compromise to be found, but it was this article which prompted jd Dallas to think that Kiwis are taking a "she'll be right" attitude.

The article is headed "Police issue warning after hundreds flock to Wellington's Oriental Parade". It's mentioned in the article that:

Police have issued a warning after hundreds of people flocked to Wellington's Oriental Parade for some afternoon sun on Sunday.

Police Commissioner Mike Bush said he was surprised at the number of people out and about on Oriental Parade when he drove past on Sunday.

One Oriental Parade resident, who did not want to be named, said he had lived in the area for many years and had never seen it so busy.

"So many people decided to come out at the same time, in groups, for a walk and a run.

I don't know how you can stop people flocking to a beach on a fine day other than closing the beach off to all traffic. But, the same thing happened at other Wellington beaches as well:

Stuff has also seen reports of similar behaviour on other beach side locations around Wellington, including Island Bay and Lyall Bay.

There were also reports that Nairnville Park in Ngaio was busy over the weekend.

So the Police probably face an impossible task in stopping people walking, biking and driving to beaches unless even stricter rules are imposed. A similar problem has been reported as happening at Wellington's Makara Beach which is about 12 kms away from the nearest town and this has caused the locals to want to deny all non-residents access to the beach.

freitasm

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#2452284 1-Apr-2020 13:49

People are stupid. Do not let your friends be stupid.

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MadEngineer

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#2452288 1-Apr-2020 13:53

Fred99:

Same tech can be used for both - (biotech) production of a monoclonal antibody and/or production of cloned proteins to splice into a live vaccine organism to stimulate an immune response.

Except in that case reported that's not what they're actually doing. A drug/protein that binds to the virus is going to do nothing to someone that doesn't have it when the treatment has left the body.

You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

FineWine

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#2452289 1-Apr-2020 13:54

Rikkitic:

With the spread of infections and deaths in the USA, and ramped up emergency measures around the country, is there any indication at all that Fox News viewers are starting to get uneasy and are beginning to look at other news sources for more accurate information?

Doubt it.

1 - way too good an entertainment source for a lot of people
2 - to all the rednecks it's their sesame street channel for so called eduction
3 - 'Accurate Information' - depends on the value of the dollar, stock market, Trumps ratings
4 - Trump might cry - no sorry my mistake he wont
5 - State governors might become Democrats - a few Republican Governors are becoming anti-White House though
6 - Lachlan Murdock might get a spine and fire more than just one news reader (Trish Regan was fired when she said "in early March 2020 for dismissing the coronavirus outbreak as a Democratic "impeachment scam" against President Donald Trump." and ask for some real journalism as opposed to a mouth piece for the White House
7 - Trumps ratings = Fox ratings = Murdock dollars

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Jase2985

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#2452291 1-Apr-2020 13:59

kiwifidget:

How rude are our journalists?

Watching yet another 1pm update, and the questions just get shouted out all at once.

Whatever happened to raising your hand and waiting to be asked?

because there is 30 journalists and time for 15 questions. you have to be in to win.

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Geektastic

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#2452294 1-Apr-2020 14:05

The roads are almost empty and yet I’ve seen reports of vehicles hitting each other....

shk292

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#2452298 1-Apr-2020 14:08

frednz:

I agree there is a safe compromise to be found, but it was this article which prompted jd Dallas to think that Kiwis are taking a "she'll be right" attitude.

The article is headed "Police issue warning after hundreds flock to Wellington's Oriental Parade". It's mentioned in the article that:

Police have issued a warning after hundreds of people flocked to Wellington's Oriental Parade for some afternoon sun on Sunday.

Police Commissioner Mike Bush said he was surprised at the number of people out and about on Oriental Parade when he drove past on Sunday.

One Oriental Parade resident, who did not want to be named, said he had lived in the area for many years and had never seen it so busy.

"So many people decided to come out at the same time, in groups, for a walk and a run.

I don't know how you can stop people flocking to a beach on a fine day other than closing the beach off to all traffic. But, the same thing happened at other Wellington beaches as well:

Stuff has also seen reports of similar behaviour on other beach side locations around Wellington, including Island Bay and Lyall Bay.

There were also reports that Nairnville Park in Ngaio was busy over the weekend.

So the Police probably face an impossible task in stopping people walking, biking and driving to beaches unless even stricter rules are imposed. A similar problem has been reported as happening at Wellington's Makara Beach which is about 12 kms away from the nearest town and this has caused the locals to want to deny all non-residents access to the beach.

I read the article; very interesting and impressive in a way that China can make such a regime work. The line between good citizenship and vigilantism is a hazy one which has already been crossed in NZ in recent days.

But, without labouring the point too much, I think common sense can be applied. No, we shouldn't be having parties or driving over to Muriwai from Auckland or going out in the boat or stopping anywhere for a beer, I totally get that. Staying at home is a good thing and is what we're doing in my household except for the government-sanctioned exceptions. I have to go out sometimes to go to work, although WFH is good for 90% of my work after a hectic rush last week. We need to go to the supermarket once a week or so.

The point I was making is that we all need to get out once a day or so, or go crazy, and I don't see why walking here: http://www.windsurf.co.nz/windsurf_cam_orewa2.asp

on a 100m or more wide beach is more dangerous than walking down a relatively busier urban street. Beaches are great because they have no hard surfaces and are automatically washed twice per day.

That's my 2c worth anyway, happy to debate because this is a forum and hopefully populated with intelligent people who can argue logically but please don't just reply with a slogan.

Fred99

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#2452300 1-Apr-2020 14:08

MadEngineer: Except in that case reported that's not what they're actually doing. A drug/protein that binds to the virus is going to do nothing to someone that doesn't have it when the treatment has left the body.

Different company but:

https://www.biospace.com/article/vir-biotechnology-ids-2-monoclonal-antibodies-against-the-covid-19-coronavirus/

The company engineered the Fc region of the antibody in two ways. First, they altered it so it would have a longer half-life and second, they made a change that increases short-term potency. In animal tests this generated protective CD8+ T-cells that have the potential to offer long-term immunity.

freitasm

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#2452303 1-Apr-2020 14:11

Geektastic: The roads are almost empty and yet I’ve seen reports of vehicles hitting each other....

As I said. People are stupid.

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