2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2456609 7-Apr-2020 18:04

GV27:

This is all looking pretty encouraging? The lock-down seems to be limited opportunities for community transmission so maybe we'll be in a position to return to something approaching normality soon?

Im feeling that. A biggie for me has been the endless counting of imported cases. Its an artificial construct, not what is going on inside our shores. Thats pretty much dried up. Now we have a lockdown which severely hampers transmission. Doubling the tests. Almost no airport arrivals to bother us, so we can focus on CT. See CT or a cluster, test test test, nip it in the bud.

I am also feeling from the PM and Dr Ashley, and reading between the lines, that they really really want out of Level 4. Economy, costs are hurting. I was being big on an extension, I now see level 3, after the 4 weeks, and some ares level 4, but I feel they want to limit that. I hope if we go to Level 3 on 24 April, that the law id laid down to non compliers. Level 3 is still heavily restricted, we need to stamp down on that if we want to stay off Level 4

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#2456615 7-Apr-2020 18:26

tdgeek:

GV27:

This is all looking pretty encouraging? The lock-down seems to be limited opportunities for community transmission so maybe we'll be in a position to return to something approaching normality soon?

Im feeling that. A biggie for me has been the endless counting of imported cases. Its an artificial construct, not what is going on inside our shores. Thats pretty much dried up. Now we have a lockdown which severely hampers transmission. Doubling the tests. Almost no airport arrivals to bother us, so we can focus on CT. See CT or a cluster, test test test, nip it in the bud.

I am also feeling from the PM and Dr Ashley, and reading between the lines, that they really really want out of Level 4. Economy, costs are hurting. I was being big on an extension, I now see level 3, after the 4 weeks, and some ares level 4, but I feel they want to limit that. I hope if we go to Level 3 on 24 April, that the law id laid down to non compliers. Level 3 is still heavily restricted, we need to stamp down on that if we want to stay off Level 4

There is no clear picture about the lockdown. There are some promising signs but there is at least a 2 week time lag from taking action to getting any sort of picture as to what is happening. The reduction in cases is much more likely to be attributed to the actions before the lockdown.

Everyone needs to breathe and wait. This thing takes time for to work through the population before detection.

GV27

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#2456620 7-Apr-2020 18:35

tdgeek:

GV27:

This is all looking pretty encouraging? The lock-down seems to be limited opportunities for community transmission so maybe we'll be in a position to return to something approaching normality soon?

Im feeling that. A biggie for me has been the endless counting of imported cases. Its an artificial construct, not what is going on inside our shores. Thats pretty much dried up. Now we have a lockdown which severely hampers transmission. Doubling the tests. Almost no airport arrivals to bother us, so we can focus on CT. See CT or a cluster, test test test, nip it in the bud.

I am also feeling from the PM and Dr Ashley, and reading between the lines, that they really really want out of Level 4. Economy, costs are hurting. I was being big on an extension, I now see level 3, after the 4 weeks, and some ares level 4, but I feel they want to limit that. I hope if we go to Level 3 on 24 April, that the law id laid down to non compliers. Level 3 is still heavily restricted, we need to stamp down on that if we want to stay off Level 4

At the moment I see the middle ground being going back on the 28th - after the observation of Anzac Day. May not be worth the risk for two trading days before the weekend, but it also buys you an extra five days under lockdown.

WyleECoyoteNZ

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#2456627 7-Apr-2020 18:45

Fred99:

networkn:

What happened with the guy found in a Motel? Are they awaiting tests to see his COD?

Might have to wait for the coroner. He could have even had C-19 - but that not the COD, so possibly some legal/ethical issue if MoH was to presume C-19 was the COD.

If this is the male in Wellington, from the reports I saw, he discharged himself, and did have underlying conditions

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/no-suggestion-wellington-death-linked-virus-bloomfield

mattwnz

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#2456646 7-Apr-2020 18:57

DS248:

freitasm: How does NZ’s Covid-19 response stack up?

Good comparison of New Zealand current status vs comparable countries.

@freitasm:

Have posted a comparison with other southern hemisphere countries in the data & analysis thread (#2456584). See second plot in particular. On a per capita basis Australia seems to be out performing us by several days at least.

Unlike in Australia, it is not clear yet that our drop in cases over the last two days will be sustained. We had a very similar drop in daily cases between 20 & 31 March that was not sustained.

The number of confirmed cases is largely based on how much actual testing is done It wasn't until recently that people who may have had the symptoms in NZ, but had no links to overseas travel or people who had traveled overseas, weren't being tested. I am not sure what the requirements are now in Oz to get a test. The death rate is a significantly higher percentage in OZ, than NZ, which as discussed as per the briefing in the last few days,countries with higher percentages of deaths, the testing is likely not capturing a significant amount of the cases.

tdgeek

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#2456647 7-Apr-2020 19:00

Handle9:

There is no clear picture about the lockdown. There are some promising signs but there is at least a 2 week time lag from taking action to getting any sort of picture as to what is happening. The reduction in cases is much more likely to be attributed to the actions before the lockdown.

Everyone needs to breathe and wait. This thing takes time for to work through the population before detection.

I don't disagree, my preference is 6 weeks not 4. My second paragraph is what Im picking up from the PM and Dr A. Today, they talked as if Level 4 is over soon lets keep mentioning Level 3.

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WyleECoyoteNZ

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#2456690 7-Apr-2020 19:10

Magic Talk has had a number of calls\reports about holiday hot spots, especially in the North Island, having a influx of outsiders to holiday homes suddenly becoming occupied.

Behavior like that will see that the Level 4 time is extended.

Technofreak

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#2456696 7-Apr-2020 19:30

WyleECoyoteNZ:

Magic Talk has had a number of calls\reports about holiday hot spots, especially in the North Island, having a influx of outsiders to holiday homes suddenly becoming occupied.

Behavior like that will see that the Level 4 time is extended.

That's easily sorted to some extent. A significant proportion of holiday homes are accessed via areas that are accessed by a single route. The authorities just need to have a cordon on that route. Anyone without a legitimate reason is turned around and/or arrested for breaking the lock down. It won't take long for the message to get through. We are far too lenient with those that try bend the rules.

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#2456697 7-Apr-2020 19:34

Yup, if they can have a checkpoint on the Desert Rd on Labour Weekend Monday under normal conditions, it should be a piece of cake nowadays.

mattwnz

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#2456700 7-Apr-2020 19:44

tdgeek:

Handle9:

There is no clear picture about the lockdown. There are some promising signs but there is at least a 2 week time lag from taking action to getting any sort of picture as to what is happening. The reduction in cases is much more likely to be attributed to the actions before the lockdown.

Everyone needs to breathe and wait. This thing takes time for to work through the population before detection.

I don't disagree, my preference is 6 weeks not 4. My second paragraph is what Im picking up from the PM and Dr A. Today, they talked as if Level 4 is over soon lets keep mentioning Level 3.

The time in lock down has to be based on something . Currently 4 weeks is based on two 14 day virus cycles. 6 would be 3, which is perhaps better to cope with larger bubbles of people. I was concerned to see on one news, they interviewed someone who had the virus, and they said that when you think you have recovered, they don't test you, or even get someone to check your temperature. Instead it is all done on an honor system. So there is no covid 19 test to make sure it has cleared from your system. After 48 hours of no symptoms (2 days) you can leave the house. In other countries like the US, they want people to wait for 3 days after they stop showing symptoms, so I am not sure why NZ is only 2 days. I would have thought we would make to be cautious over that. That isn't so bad while in level 4. But if we are importing new cases who are in self isolation, so of those imported cases, eg someone who arrives in 7 days time, may get the virus after level 4 lockdown has ended. That is why IMO we need all arrivals to go into quarantine, so the system is watertight, and we don't get more leaks.

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#2456705 7-Apr-2020 19:55

Even if we go back to level 3 at the end of April not much will change restaurants and cinemas and bars will still be closed even at level 3 it was still advised people stay home and work from home where possible I'm pretty sure schools closed when we moved to level 3 iirc as well. To return to any sort of normalcy we would have to drop back to at least level 2.

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tdgeek

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#2456710 7-Apr-2020 20:03

mattwnz:

The time in lock down has to be based on something . Currently 4 weeks is based on two 14 day virus cycles. 6 would be 3, which is perhaps better to cope with larger bubbles of people. I was concerned to see on one news, they interviewed someone who had the virus, and they said that when you think you have recovered, they don't test you, or even get someone to check your temperature. Instead it is all done on an honor system. So there is no covid 19 test to make sure it has cleared from your system. After 48 hours of no symptoms (2 days) you can leave the house. In other countries like the US, they want people to wait for 3 days after they stop showing symptoms, so I am not sure why NZ is only 2 days. I would have thought we would make to be cautious over that. That isn't so bad while in level 4. But if we are importing new cases who are in self isolation, so of those imported cases, eg someone who arrives in 7 days time, may get the virus after level 4 lockdown has ended. That is why IMO we need all arrivals to go into quarantine, so the system is watertight, and we don't get more leaks.

Arrivals haven't been great, but they have the same trust system as the other 4.8 million of us, so its a hard one. The good thing is thats all drying up. One day this week had just 100 arrivals. Masks, you must wear based on a bunch of what seems trusted sources, then you can't, also based on trusted sources. If we post doom and gloom posts, get criticised and corrected, post optimistic posts, get criticised for that too, you can't win!

We couldn't do a lot about arrivals when they were in the thousands. But yes, the Police or someone needs to make it watertight on Alert 3 day, whenever that may be. And they need to take action against flouters, that will still apply in Level 3 to a degree. If we were living in a happy dictatorship, it would be a lot easier. But lack of commitment by too many people may cause CT to simmer away. When you get a daily dose of politicians and sportspeople ignoring it, you have to accept there are leaks everywhere. We all seem to want to do our bit, when it suits us. That not enough. 100% compliance, the virus wouldn't exist here in all likelihood after 4 to 5 weeks. But it will based on compliance.

tdgeek

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#2456711 7-Apr-2020 20:11

Zepanda66: Even if we go back to level 3 at the end of April not much will change restaurants and cinemas and bars will still be closed even at level 3 it was still advised people stay home and work from home where possible I'm pretty sure schools closed when we moved to level 3 iirc as well. To return to any sort of normalcy we would have to drop back to at least level 2.

Below is 4 (top) and 3. Fir 3 I see limited non essential shopping will be available, and you can socialise. Yes, level 2 is somewhat normal, 3 isnt acceptable if we have any CT. May as well do another 4 weeks at Level 4, and allow online shopping for non essentials

FOUR

People instructed to stay at home
Educational facilities closed
Businesses closed except for essential services (e.g. supermarkets, pharmacies, clinics) and lifeline utilities
Rationing of supplies and requisitioning of facilities
Travel severely limited
Major reprioritisation of healthcare services

Level 3

Travel in areas with clusters or community transmission limited
Affected educational facilities closed
Mass gatherings cancelled
Public venues closed (e.g. libraries, museums, cinemas, food courts, gyms, pools, amusement parks)
Alternative ways of working required and some non-essential businesses should close
Non face-to-face primary care consultations
Non acute (elective) services and procedures in hospitals deferred and healthcare staff reprioritised

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#2456716 7-Apr-2020 20:22

Washington Post: Giuliani, a familiar voice in Trump’s ear, promotes experimental coronavirus treatments

By Rosalind S. Helderman, Josh Dawsey and Jon Swaine

Rudolph W. Giuliani, who was in the center of the impeachment storm earlier this year as an unpaid private attorney for President Trump, has cast himself in a new role: as personal science adviser to a president eager to find ways to short-circuit the coronavirus pandemic.

In one-on-one phone calls with Trump, Giuliani said, he has been touting the use of an anti-malarial drug combination that has shown some early promise in treating covid-19, the disease the novel coronavirus causes, but whose effectiveness has not yet been proved. He said he now spends his days on the phone with doctors, coronavirus patients and hospital executives promoting the treatment, which Trump has also publicly lauded.

“I discussed it with the president after he talked about it,” Giuliani said in an interview. “I told him what I had on the drugs.”

Giuliani’s advice to Trump echoes comments the former New York mayor has made on his popular Twitter feed and a podcast that he records in a radio studio installed at his New York City apartment, where he has repeatedly pushed the drug combination, as well as a stem cell therapy that involves the extraction of what Giuliani termed “placenta ‘killer cells.’ ”

He is part of a chorus of prominent pro-Trump voices who at first downplayed the severity of the virus and then embraced possible cures — worrying health experts who fear such comments undermine efforts to slow the virus’s spread and downplay the risks of the unproven treatments.

Giuliani’s comments have helped him regain a bit of the prominence he had during Trump’s impeachment — last week, he was back in the spotlight when Twitter briefly locked his account for promoting misinformation about covid-19.

...At his daily briefings, Trump has praised the drug combo, saying it could be one of “the biggest game changers in the history of medicine.”

Last week, the FDA issued emergency authorization for the use of the anti-malarial drug for some covid-19 patients.

...In his newly fashioned role, Giuliani has solicited medical tips from a controversial Long Island family doctor with a following in the conservative media, as well as a former pharmacist who once pleaded guilty to conspiring to extort the actor Steven Seagal.

“Got lots of positive reports on hydroxy and Zithromax,” Giuliani tweeted on March 26.

It was one of at least 14 messages Giuliani posted during the past three weeks referring to the combination of the anti-malarial drug and the antibiotic azithromycin.

“The Hydroxy treatment, first introduced by POTUS, appears to be working so far!” he tweeted two days later. Another message blasted the “demented left” he claimed wished to ban the therapy.

...Some doctors say the anti-malarial treatment has appeared anecdotally to help some covid-19 patients, but it has not yet been proved effective in valid clinical trials.

...Joel F. Farley, a professor at the University of Minnesota College of Pharmacy, said it concerned him to hear prominent political figures publicly advocate for FDA action on any specific covid-19 treatment.

“It worries me that political pressure could be applied and potentially distract from other possible treatments,” Farley said.

The avid promotion of the unproven treatment by nonmedical experts has worried scientists, who are concerned they downplay some known side effects of the medications and could lead to hoarding of drugs used to treat other ailments, such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.

“You should be listening to credible scientists, ideally physicians and researchers who approach this issue with a respect for the scientific method. Rudy Giuliani is the opposite of that kind of person,” said David Juurlink, an internist and head of the division of clinical pharmacology at the University of Toronto. Juurlink said that some of Giuliani’s “statements are dangerous and are not to be believed.”

On March 27, Twitter locked Giuliani’s account until he deleted one of his messages that indicated the treatment had been “100 percent effective” in treating covid-19, part of an effort to crack down on misinformation about the virus on the platform, a company spokeswoman said.

...The medicine does in rare cases have serious side effects, including lethal cardiac complications....

Zepanda66

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#2456718 7-Apr-2020 20:31

Pretends to be shocked. Wouldnt surprise me at all if trump was trying to rush out Hydroxy as a treatment option just to get the economy going again.

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