2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2458466 9-Apr-2020 15:41

Fred99:

frankv:

I don't see why new arrivals are to be treated differently from someone already in NZ who has been assessed as a "probable" or "confirmed" case. But I guess that incoming numbers are down low enough where we *can* quarantine them.

And I think we would be the first country in the world to eliminate covid-19, not just the first western country.

Most confirmed or probable cases in the community were already in an isolation "bubble" (as we all are) with extra requirements to try to reduce spread to others in their bubble - but not expected to be 100% effective.
New arrivals introduced to an (almost certainly disease-free) bubble is higher risk for "new" cases amongst family members.

Ah, I see. So it's about ensuring that uninfected bubbles stay uninfected, and infected bubbles get "clean" within this month. So a newly-arrived infection, especially (nearly) asymptomatic) now could lead to other (nearly) asymptomatic infections in the bubble, and consequently still be contagious after lockdown, and start to spread again when bubbles coalesce.

bmt

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#2458469 9-Apr-2020 15:44

dejadeadnz:

bmt:

Please explain how it was ideological.

I view it certainly as one that's not based on expert's views and evidence and where the government has unwisely resisted the step for too long despite the overwhelming evidence of its benefits. That decision seems to be driven off a worldview that people who were still gallivanting around the world when all reputable authorities were calling for people to return home (I fully acknowledge that some would have actively sought to return ASAP but were stymied in their efforts) can be trusted on faith to respect any voluntary quarantine. I view that as pretty idealistic.

Oh ok, so you know what advice the government is receiving on the issue of mandatory quarantine for arrivals? And you are then able to weigh up what those non-public experts are saying vs the "experts" in the media? Or you're just clutching straws and assuming the government is making the decision based on ideology rather than facts and advice presented to them..

mattwnz

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#2458472 9-Apr-2020 15:46

frankv:

Ah, I see. So it's about ensuring that uninfected bubbles stay uninfected, and infected bubbles get "clean" within this month. So a newly-arrived infection, especially (nearly) asymptomatic) now could lead to other (nearly) asymptomatic infections in the bubble, and consequently still be contagious after lockdown, and start to spread again when bubbles coalesce.

The problem is that we only have 14 days left in level 4, unless it is extended. Also can't other people inside the bubble where a person who is self isolating from overseas, still go shopping or work in essential services, where bubbles have the potential to merge? Quarantine prevents that occurring.
IMO this quarantine needed to be put in place before the level 4 lockdown started,otherwise each returning person that goes into self isolation inside an existing bubble has the potential to reset the 4 week clock.

Fred99

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#2458475 9-Apr-2020 15:49

frankv:

Fred99:

Most confirmed or probable cases in the community were already in an isolation "bubble" (as we all are) with extra requirements to try to reduce spread to others in their bubble - but not expected to be 100% effective.
New arrivals introduced to an (almost certainly disease-free) bubble is higher risk for "new" cases amongst family members.

Ah, I see. So it's about ensuring that uninfected bubbles stay uninfected, and infected bubbles get "clean" within this month. So a newly-arrived infection, especially (nearly) asymptomatic) now could lead to other (nearly) asymptomatic infections in the bubble, and consequently still be contagious after lockdown, and start to spread again when bubbles coalesce.

Ummmm... yes I think I agree. I had to edit my post because on reflection I wasn't sure if I agreed with what I first said. I've *definitely* been locked up too long.

dejadeadnz

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#2458479 9-Apr-2020 15:54

bmt:

Oh ok, so you know what advice the government is receiving on the issue of mandatory quarantine for arrivals? And you are then able to weigh up what those non-public experts are saying vs the "experts" in the media? Or you're just clutching straws and assuming the government is making the decision based on ideology rather than facts and advice presented to them..

I've got a quite apparent record on here of being quite balanced in my assessment of the government's response. Against the background of essentially all reputable experts (I am referring to actual medical experts like a former Chief Science Advisor for the government and other medical experts) calling for the action that the government has finally decided to take in publicly accessible forums holding the government's response to account (e.g. the parliamentary select committee) for at least 10+ days before the government responded, I drew the quite reasonable inference that the refusal to follow this course is not entirely reasonable.

But hey keep your potshots going.

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#2458491 9-Apr-2020 16:02

dejadeadnz:

I've got a quite apparent record on here of being quite balanced in my assessment of the government's response. Against the background of essentially all reputable experts (I am referring to actual medical experts like a former Chief Science Advisor for the government and other medical experts) calling for the action that the government has finally decided to take in publicly accessible forums holding the government's response to account (e.g. the parliamentary select committee) for at least 10+ days before the government responded, I drew the quite reasonable inference that the refusal to follow this course is not entirely reasonable.

But hey keep your potshots going.

I agree with this however in her briefing the PM said that there were circa 40,000 Kiwis wanting to return in the first week and if they had all the Hotel rooms in NZ available to them it would not have been enough. I have no idea if that is accurate or not but on face value it would seem to be quite a problem. I had an out of the box thought that they could have used the currently idle school halls and class rooms as temporary if not ideal accommodation.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2458501 9-Apr-2020 16:10

frankv:
Any Republican will tell you that CNN is a socialist channel that deliberately makes Trump look bad. And therefore it can't be trusted.

That's actually true. When Bloomberg published a report quoting a medical study that Trump's miracle cure was at best a gamble, at worst doesn't work, my Trump-fan friend said that Bloomberg, specifically Bloomberg Business News, was a far-left socialist something something news source and you couldn't trust them. As far as I can tell every news source in the world except Fox News and Russia Today are part of a global anti-Trump conspiracy intent on making him look bad. As a caller to a religious-right talkback show in the US that I once listened to for a laugh said, "at least we've got Fox to tell us the truth".

frankv

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#2458506 9-Apr-2020 16:14

dejadeadnz:

I view it certainly as one that's not based on expert's views and evidence and where the government has unwisely resisted the step for too long despite the overwhelming evidence of its benefits.

Whilst it *might* have been a good idea epidemiology wise, I don't think it would have been practical. Where exactly would you have had the government incarcerate all these people?

That decision seems to be driven off a worldview that people who were still gallivanting around the world when all reputable authorities were calling for people to return home (I fully acknowledge that some would have actively sought to return ASAP but were stymied in their efforts) can be trusted on faith to respect any voluntary quarantine. I view that as pretty idealistic.

As a single anecdotal data point, I have an Australian niece who had been gallivanting around the USA in a motorhome for several months. She was in one of the Arizona National Parks at the time of the urgent "return home now" message. She reported that in Arizona, no one was concerned, and she certainly didn't get any summons from her government. Her mother spent some effort convincing her daughter that this was indeed deadly serious, and she should return home *now*. As it happened, she ended up going via Hong Kong and caught the last flight to Perth.

So, characterising late returners as reckless anarchistic renegades who would therefore willfully disregard self-isolation rules is unwarranted (at least in this one case). Reputable authorities simply don't have a reliable way to communicate with their citizens. She, and I'm sure thousands like her, have given up their dream holiday, or dream job, and paid an enormous price, to escape a terrible illness, and have seen first-hand the effects of it. They understand the danger, and demonstrably have more motivation than the rest of us to suck it up.

Therefore, I would like to see your evidence for wanting enforced quarantine. How many people have returned home since the lockdown, AND actually spread the virus outside their bubble? Are you trying to solve a problem that didn't even exist? Who are these experts that wanted the government to put arrivals into enforced quarantine?

tdgeek

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#2458509 9-Apr-2020 16:18

mattwnz:

Apparently it was all to do with not having the resources / accommodation for them based on the huge incoming flow, so self isolation was seen as the only option, even though you only need a few to not do it properly , for leaks to occur. But I would have thought they could have restricted that incoming flow, to a level that they could cope with it. Closing the borders should have provided that ability to control in incoming numbers of NZers returning from overseas, so all could be quarantined properly. It would have led to delays and inconvenience for travelers. But if all countries were doing this, then it could have been managed.

I suspect huge changes will come to international travel in the future, similar to what occurred after 9/11.

It would be a logistical nightmare to have to decide when Kiwis can come back to their own country. Richer last as they can afford to stay? When they all came back at rapid numbers they went to isolation, and I expect vastly less leaks per capita than what we are seeing leaking all over the place right now.

tdgeek

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#2458512 9-Apr-2020 16:22

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

We can always repeat the Level 4, no worries.

I don't think that is going to be very popular. IMO it is better to extend level 4 to say 6-8 weeks to make sure we eliminate it, than to repeat it. If we repeat it, then IMO it will mean that we have failed to eliminate it, and by that time the tracing will be nearly impossible, and we are just buying time until a vaccine or cure comes along. But the fact that this is a coronovirus and we have never come up with a cure for the common cold, it could be years off.

My post was on context of Batmans concern over enforcing the rules, as doing that is bad. Its what dictators do, apparently. The context was, if we dont enforce anything, allow leaks freely, then the consequence is extended Level 4. I agree with what you say. Some want to eliminate it, others dont seem to, but thats what we need to do. The growing instances of flouting, will probably mean that there will be avoidable periods where some locations go to Level 4.

neb

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#2458513 9-Apr-2020 16:22

frankv:
She reported that in Arizona, no one was concerned,

One of the US friends I've cited, the one who mentioned that local shops had been asked to remain open so as not to lose out on tourist dollars, is in Arizona. When they finally went into "lockdown" it was more of our stage 3, with essential businesses like nail salons and the like remaining open. After intense public pressure nail salons are now no longer classed as essential businesses, but I suspect an awful lot of everything else still is, meaning they're not really in lockdown at all.

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#2458514 9-Apr-2020 16:23

I went to the Porirua "Pak 'N Save" a couple of days ago. They stopped anyone from bringing in bags. I'd guess it was to get people outside the grocery store ASAP. Naturally there was one angry customer who stormed off.

I picked up a box of gloves, conventionally stocked at the front entrance, and put a pair on (Yes I paid for the box at checkout)

I remember hearing the radio announcer saying they were encouraging people to use contactless card payments.

My grocery bill was over $80, and I had to use the pin pad.

I'd guess licking the bathroom seat would be healthier than using the EFTPOS pin pad, since at least the bathroom seat gets disinfected every so often.

Stuff: Coronavirus: Contactless payments limit to increase to $200

By Anuja Nadkarni

The pin limit for contactless card payments will increase from $80 to $200 to reduce the need for pin pads and limit the spread of the coronavirus.

Payments NZ chief executive Steve Wiggins said there had been overwhelming support and commitment from across the payments industry to implement the increase as soon as possible.

Wiggins said the new temporary limit would be introduced by most New Zealand banks, card providers and be available at an increasing number of retailers. It will remain in place for as long as necessary.
...

dejadeadnz

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#2458516 9-Apr-2020 16:23

frankv:

Therefore, I would like to see your evidence for wanting enforced quarantine. How many people have returned home since the lockdown, AND actually spread the virus outside their bubble? Are you trying to solve a problem that didn't even exist? Who are these experts that wanted the government to put arrivals into enforced quarantine?

You can have a look at the news media for yourself. The likes of Sir David Skegg's POV has been all over the media - it's not my job to make your life easy. An example is here. My argument for wanting a compulsory quarantine is simple: 4.5+ million people have already made extraordinary sacrifices to help stop the spread of the disease. Against the background of people who know much better than you and I calling for a compulsory quarantine as a final step to buttress our generally very good response, I don't see a small minority of people being deprived of their liberty in a limited degree, whilst still being housed, fed, and generally treated with dignity, in order to protect the interest of the majority and to ensure that their sacrifices are not in vain, to be an unwarranted imposition.

In any event, you're crying over spilt milk. The government has lawfully and legitimately made this decision.

neb

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#2458517 9-Apr-2020 16:25

kingdragonfly: I went to the Porirua "Pak 'N Save" a couple of days ago. They stopped anyone from bringing in bags.

Mrs.Neb reports this at the local New World too. Does anyone know the thinking behind this? I know they try and wipe down the trolley handles between customers but people touch all other parts of the trolleys as well, and using your own bags means there's no risk of cross-contamination. It seems like a really counterproductive move.

frankv

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#2458519 9-Apr-2020 16:26

tdgeek:

If you feel that enforcing on these idiots, while the rest of us do our best for the common good, is tantamount to a dictatotship, or a communist state, well I'm gobsmacked. If you prefer not to have Courts, or laws or the preference of safety, I guess that's an opinion

I'm concerned about the labeling of people as "idiots". This kind of "obvious" division between them ("idiots who break the rules") and us ("well-behaved, clean-living, good guys") is precisely the kind of thing that authoritarians of either left- or right-wing persuasion thrive on.

In the words of someone famous: "They are us". Let's keep it respectful. People are people.

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