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A couple of interesting plots from Singapore showing:
1. an explosion of local cases following a spike in cases in the second half of March. Quite different from the Taiwanese plot of imported and local cases that I posted previously. Not increase in local cases following a spike in imported cases. (Presumably the spikes in imported cases in both cases is people returning home to escape overseas hotspots & travel restrictions?)
2. Average number of days from onset of symptoms to isolation for 'Local Unlinked' cases. Average for the last 10 days or so looks to be around 5 - 5.5 days. Note it is to 'isolation' not test confirmation. Possibly add on another ~2 days for that?
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Now the decrease in NZ new cases does look for real.
About 13 days from lockdown to start of drop in cases. Close to expected.
Question now is whether NZ cases will continue to trend down over the next 3 - 4 days or whether they will flatted out as per AU?
No drop off yet for Chile.
Edit: updated test numbers (per mil) and CFR-7 to 8 Apr (so easy to forget the details!)
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Update of plot comparing trajectories for selected high income European, Asian and Pacific countries (cropped to 100k cases).
Taiwan now significantly out performing other 'similar' Asian countries (well outperforming almost every country)
Japan & Singapore show worrying recent upticks in total cases.
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He also commented:
My updated graph, averaged over 5 days now. If I had to give guidance for Western countries then 1.00e-05 deaths per capita per day would be the threshold that they shouldn't cross. It seems that above that the health system crashes. In the case of the US one would have to look at the numbers for NY separately on the other hand it's also true that they managed to move many doctors and equipment to where they are needed so the country value still makes sense.
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Comparison between new cases per million population (pm) in Australia, NZ, South Korea and Taiwan
New cases per capita in NZ and AU for 11 April very similar. AU cases started to drop earlier but have near flat lined for the last five days at 3 - 4 pm.
The spike in cases occurred earlier in S. Korea but at its peak was similar to the peak rate for NZ & AU. Drop from peak to 3-4 per million was similar to what we have now seen in NZ & AU but continued down to ~2 pm, then stabilised for 3 wks before slowly decreasing over the last week and a half to under 1 pm yesterday. Showing a long tail at around 1 - 2 pm daily infections (many imported though).
I will be interesting to see if NZ flattens out a 3-4 pm as per AU or, with its more restrictive lockdown, continues down to levels similar to S. Korea or below?
Regardless of lockdown, likely to be a reasonably long tail if only because of imported cases.
Taiwan is still getting occasional local cases after many weeks of very low levels of infection (despite no general lockdown) but the large majority of their infections are imported.
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