tdgeek:It seems likely we will go to Level 3 on April 22. That worries me and Im sure the Govt is worried also.
It worries me too. The current number of daily cases is where we were at around March 20th prior to lock down. But we're really don't know how this has spread in the last 14 days of lockdown due to the long incubation period and we don't appear to have been doing as much testing as many other countries as per World O meter.
Most badly affected countries that acted slowly appear to still be in lockdown with no indication as to how long they will stay in lockdown for. It appears in other countries social distancing may become the norm until a vaccine comes out. IMO it will be a huge mistake for the future of NZ to waste this level 4 lockdown by leaving it too early. We could end up joining those other countries with no chance of eradication if we leave to early. As we are still getting new cases after 14 days and as discussed in the media conference, there is transmission occurring inside people's bubbles. Some bubbles are large and made up of 10 or even 20 people so inside those bubbles the virus could remain active and transfer slowly between people in that bubble for a long time, which IMO may have been an error in not having a maximum bubble size. . I hope they are getting a international expert advice including those that managed the SARS outbreaks, as to when and how NZ should relax the lockdown. The tail shouldn't wag the dog. The worst thing IMO would be having to go back into lockdown in a month due to us making the error of going out of lockdown without having either eradicated it, or knowing where all the people are who have the virus. To use the Bluff wedding cluster as an example, as per the media conference today, many of those cases are spread throughout the country. While we are in lockdown it can only spread to other people in the bubble , which appears to have occurred. But once we leave lockdown it has the potential to mobilise the virus again, and we then risk a second wave which is occurring in some other countries like Singapore who were previously doing well.
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