2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2459912 12-Apr-2020 14:50

ezbee: ... Looking at our pitiful non brand name anemic mask collection. Focused on simple DIY protection.
Some harmony restored by finding plans for home made cloth and making a few with little suitable fabric we had, a win on its own. ...

Make your own

Local suppliers

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Please keep this GZ community vibrant by contributing in a constructive & respectful manner.

shk292

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#2459914 12-Apr-2020 14:52

Sideface:

Except he wasn't sacked by a Naval Officer, but by a civvy who left the Navy 30 years ago to attend business school. Probably attained the rank of Ensign before leaving and was then loving lording it over senior officers

freitasm

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#2459930 12-Apr-2020 15:16

Interesting short video documentary of two days in a NYC hospital:

neb

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#2459955 12-Apr-2020 15:34

iamaelephant:
I really do fear for America.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-antibiotics-coronavirus-white-house-briefing-brilliant-enemy-genius-idiot-a9460636.html

Insert the obligatory quote about the jawbone of an ass being just as deadly now as it was in biblical times... there's another quote, unfortunately probably true in the case of the US, from a SF book, possibly one of the Dune series, where some depostic ruler talks about how he'll abuse his people, lie to them, deceive them, and they'll worship him for it. That's still the case in around 50% of the US, if anything the Trump supporters have become even more rabid in defending him, or at least attacking everything but him.

Just realised this is the Covid19 forum not the Trump forum, no easy way to cross-post to there but if necessary please continue this over in the other forum.

neb

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#2459957 12-Apr-2020 15:37

frednz:
Also, another surprising survey finding is that 52 percent of people are still uneasy about the country's food supply (a drop in concern down to 52% from 62%). Is this a reasonable concern? Is there are a chance, for example, of rationing coming up in future weeks? I think most people have so far been able to buy most of the food they want and I hope this continues to be the case.

Seems a bit odd, went to the supermarket yesterday for the first time since the lockdown (we tend to buy in bulk so don't go shopping much) and noticed two things, firstly people being a lot more polite towards each other than usual, and secondly packed shelves for everything except hand sanitiser, including the standard amount of perishables, veges, fruit, bread. It was totally business as usual from the supply side.

neb

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#2459959 12-Apr-2020 15:39

Paul1977:
So the USA is three countries now; US East, US West, and US Central?

Not quite, it's the People's Republic of California to the west, the United States of Canada to about the level of the Mason/Dixon line, and Jesusland to the south of that.

frednz

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#2459960 12-Apr-2020 15:43

neb:
frednz:

Also, another surprising survey finding is that 52 percent of people are still uneasy about the country's food supply (a drop in concern down to 52% from 62%). Is this a reasonable concern? Is there are a chance, for example, of rationing coming up in future weeks? I think most people have so far been able to buy most of the food they want and I hope this continues to be the case.

Seems a bit odd, went to the supermarket yesterday for the first time since the lockdown (we tend to buy in bulk so don't go shopping much) and noticed two things, firstly people being a lot more polite towards each other than usual, and secondly packed shelves for everything except hand sanitiser, including the standard amount of perishables, veges, fruit, bread. It was totally business as usual from the supply side.

The report quoted from can be seen here:

https://www.researchnz.com/pdf/Media%20Releases/2020/Covid19Concerns2.pdf

The latest report from Research NZ indicates that the percentage of people still uneasy about the country's food supply has increased slightly from 52% to 54%.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018742392

See also this article about the latest report.

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kingdragonfly

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#2459961 12-Apr-2020 15:44

For Fox News hosts, the hydroxychloroquine controversy is fuel for the culture war

Washington Post, by Paul Farhi

...Fox News’s opinionated prime-time hosts were among the earliest and most enthusiastic cheerleaders for the potential of the drug and its variant, chloroquine, to stem the coronavirus crisis — a viewpoint echoing and frequently prompting the president’s endorsement of it in his daily briefings, despite questions from the scientific community about its safety and effectiveness.

But lately their promotion has taken on a form familiar to longtime viewers — as a another front in a long-running culture war against an array of supposed enemies, who are again allegedly standing in the way of what they hold to be righteous and true.

“After hearing all of the stories where hydroxychloroquine is credited with saving lives, it is amazing that the left and the medical establishment is still in total denial about the potential of these decades-old drugs,” Laura Ingraham said on her program Thursday night.

To be sure, much of the reporting and commentary on hydroxychloroquine in the mainstream media isn’t so much “reckless” as it is cautious and hedged. That’s because the scientific knowledge surrounding hydroxychloroquine is nuanced and unsettled.

The drug has been in use as an anti-malaria treatment for decades and more recently as a treatment for lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. But it’s not clear whether it works for covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. Among the few preliminary studies was one showing promise, although that result was subsequently questioned by the study’s publisher. Experts have cautioned about side effects, such as heart arrhythmia, which can be fatal.
...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/for-fox-news-hosts-the-hydroxychloroquine-controversy-is-fuel-for-the-culture-war/2020/04/10/0ec604d6-79a4-11ea-b6ff-597f170df8f8_story.html

kingdragonfly

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#2459988 12-Apr-2020 16:12

African Americans' difficult situation gets even worse.

Prison rates in the US are the world's highest, at 724 people per 100,000. New Zealand rate is almost 5 times less.

In the States, while 13% of the US population is African American (about 1 in 8), but make up

33% of those hospitalised for coronavirus

37% of prison population

Internal US prison guard email contradicts government’s claims to judges about containing coronavirus at federal detention center

"The intercept" by Nick Pinto

Officials at the New York Metropolitan Detention Center are transferring incarcerated people who have tested positive for the novel coronavirus out of quarantine and back into general housing units with scores of other people only days after they’ve tested positive, according to a guard union official who works at the jail.

The report stands in stark contrast to assurances by the Bureau of Prisons, which runs the detention facility, and federal prosecutors from the U.S. Attorneys’ Offices for the Southern and Eastern Districts of New York in recent weeks that the jail is taking appropriate precautions to protect against the spread of the disease.
...

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/10/prison-coronavirus-mdc-bop/

frankv

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#2460047 12-Apr-2020 16:43

Technofreak:
In the current climate the more tests you do it stands to reason the more infections or probable infections you will find. If you're doing fewer tests then it's highly probable that number is going to be less.

Worldometer says we have 276 infections per million population. Whilst that number depends on the amount of testing, let's assume it's in right ballpark, since we don't have large numbers of hospitalizations or deaths due to covid-19. Let's about double it to, for round numbers, 500 per million as the actual number of infected people. So random testing, you would expect to get 500/1000000 = .05% positive. So doing more tests at random won't significantly change the number of infections found, unless we do 100 times as many tests. You need to do 10,000 random tests to find 5 cases. What *will* increase the number of infections found is targeted testing based on contact tracing.

And that low infection rate also means that herd immunity isn't going to happen here, or anywhere else. Herd immunity requires something like 40% infection (or vaccination) rates. Given a best case fatality rate of about 1% (assuming plentiful ICU beds and ventilators), a 40% infection rate means 40% * 4,500,000 * 1% = 18,000 deaths in NZ. The most infected country (ignoring outliers like San Marino) is Iceland with about 5,000 cases per million population (I.e. about 0.5% infection rate). No one anywhere wants to have 100 times as many cases.

neb

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#2460049 12-Apr-2020 16:49

frankv: The most infected country (ignoring outliers like San Marino) is Iceland with about 5,000 cases per million population (I.e. about 0.5% infection rate). No one anywhere wants to have 100 times as many cases.

A bit nitpicky here, but you can't use Iceland as an example, that's such a special case that it's in a class by itself. Also, the most infected country is Vatican City, which also has the highest number of popes per square kilometer.

markhodgeNZ

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#2460056 12-Apr-2020 17:06

Interesting seeing the CCP propaganda machine starting to spread interpretations of research based on 160 samples (mostly from China) from a team of researchers from Cambridge, UK, and Germany as showing the virus started in the US: https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins

Propaganda sites like the one below cater to this narative and of course the CCP is happy to spread similar claims through WeChat and other state controlled propaganda platforms while at the same time soft banning and hard banning accounts that discuss any naratives they don't want to spread. https://blog.hiddenharmonies.org/2020/04/11/interesting-study-published-in-pnas-tracing-the-evolution-and-migration-of-sars-cov-2-i-e-the-coronavirus/

You can get a good feel for how biased these 'news' sites are by checking out their other articles. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before there is a bit of analysis and push back on this.

kingdragonfly

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#2460057 12-Apr-2020 17:10

China is re-opening live animal markets / "wet markets."

CDC scientists estimate 3 out of every 4 new or emerging infectious diseases in people come from animals.

“Zoonotic diseases” include Ebola, HIV, bird flu, swine flu, SARS, and COVID-19.

Economic Times: Wet markets important risk factor for disease spread: UN biodiversity chief

United Nations: The wet markets, such as the Huanan Seafood Market in China's virus-hit Wuhan city, are an important "risk factor" for disease spread, the UN biodiversity chief has said as she called for scaling up stricter controls on the sale and consumption of wild species globally.

Wild animals sold in the Huanan Seafood Market are believed to be the source of the novel coronavirus pandemic that has claimed more than 82,000 lives worldwide so far. The Huanan market was closed after the virus outbreak in China in December last year.

"Live animal markets (also known as 'wet markets' in parts of Asia, such as the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan China, in which live fish, meat and wild animals are sold) are an important risk factor for disease spread as is the global wildlife trade," Acting Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Elizabeth Maruma Mrema said on the occasion of World Health Day on Tuesday.

She said measures taken by countries to reduce the number of live animals in food markets have the potential to significantly reduce the risk of future disease outbreaks and "stricter controls on the sale and consumption of wild species must be scaled up globally."

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/wet-markets-important-risk-factor-for-disease-spread-un-biodiversity-chief/articleshow/75041828.cms

frankv

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#2460062 12-Apr-2020 17:23

neb: [quoted] frankv: The most infected country (ignoring outliers like San Marino) is Iceland with about 5,000 cases per million population (I.e. about 0.5% infection rate). No one anywhere wants to have 100 times as many cases.
[/quoted] A bit nitpicky here, but you can't use Iceland as an example, that's such a special case that it's in a class by itself.

Highlighted for you. ;)

But, yes, I cogitated on Iceland. But the key concept is that no country, anywhere in the world, including Vatican City, ;) is near the 40% "herd immunity" threshold.

Also, the most infected country is Vatican City, which also has the highest number of popes per square kilometer.

Coincidence? I think not! I smell a heretic plot!

FineWine

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#2460063 12-Apr-2020 17:25

[Mod edit (MF): post removed. Read my next reply]

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

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