2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2461398 14-Apr-2020 20:53

Rikkitic:
frankv:

Because she's not telling us the whole truth.

OK, the obvious question then becomes what is the whole truth? What is it that she's not telling us?

She's covering up the role of 5G in spreading Covid19.

(For those who don't want to click on the link, it's to another GZ thread on 5G/Covid19 conspiracy theories).

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#2461399 14-Apr-2020 20:56

MadEngineer:
wholey mholey that article has been edited up the wazoo! It originally had this whole section downplaying the potential death rates of our grandparents. I nearly quoted it here with a few nasty words of my own added in but thought otherwise. Wishing I had now.

From the article:

Thornley said the risk to most working people was low and likened it, for most people, to a seasonal influenza virus.

Nb: working people. Apparently the risk to non-working people doesn't merit consideration. That despite the consequences being vastly more serious. So I guess that Thornley doesn't think those lives have any value. They can be sacrificed so that money can be made.

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#2461406 14-Apr-2020 21:07

@frankv:

freitasm:

Dear Flying Spaghetti Monster, if this is not a loaded, conspiracy statement.

Ok, how about because she's "managing" the information she communicates to us.

Still not good enough.

You either know "the truth", have evidence of "the truth" and will show this evidence or you are just another crazy conspiracy theorist.

And no, "Do your research" is not the answer.

If you have no evidence, then you can stop posting here.

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#2461425 14-Apr-2020 21:33

Ge0rge:
Rikkitic:

Why not believe the PM? She's the one in charge and the one able to command the best resources and information.

When you've got Dr Skegg saying its behind, Dr Bloomfield unable to answer the select committee this morning as to why its behind, and a politician saying it's ok?

I think I'm going with the Drs.

seems like we have an answer. in a later article (5pm+) ... https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121013428/coronavirus-expert-says-faster-contracttracing-is-needed-or-leaving-lockdown-would-be-a-huge-gamble

"As soon as the lockdown is lifted the epidemic will take off again unless we have the other measures in place," Skegg said.

other measures = "high rates of testing and rapid contact tracing of any known cases."

Skegg was also keen on seeing "surveillance testing" up and running, something the Government has been talking about for weeks but is yet to formally begin.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said she agreed with Skegg that New Zealand's contact tracing had to be "second-to-none" and it would be ramped up.

Earlier in the select committee Health Director General Ashley Bloomfield had been unable to say exactly how fast all contact-tracing for each case could be carried out.

The Government has asked Dr. Ayesha Verrall to review its contact-tracing practices.

neb

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#2461428 14-Apr-2020 21:39

Batman:
seems like we have an answer. in a later article (5pm+) ...

And that's the thing with this, if different people say different things at different times it's not a conspiracy or a coverup, it's that (a) not everyone agrees on everything and (b) what we know about this, and therefore what seems to be the best course of action, changes over time. If you want a clearer answer on some point, wait two to three days until everyone has had time to weigh in and initial misunderstandings/misconceptions have been cleared up.

And if you're reading Stuff, make sure you refresh the article several times a day to see what it's been rewritten into now.

DS248

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#2461475 14-Apr-2020 23:02

tdgeek: ... I would assume that our cluster sizes are much higher than elsewhere, per capita. But if you have a low base to begin with, a cluster of 87 is very large. So it makes your %'s non comparable.

Apologies for the delayed reply. My highlighting (bold)

It would help though if you checked facts first rather than just assume/speculate then draw conclusions based on speculation ("... makes your %'s non comparable").

As at 5:30 pm 14 April NZ has 15 'significant' clusters (10+ cases), the largest Marist College (now 93 cases = 18.7 pm). The total for all 15 clusters is 498 cases (100 pm).
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-significant-clusters

As at 13 Apr, Singapore (5.84 m population vs our 4.97 m) had one cluster of 586 confirmed cases (100 pm), another with 157 cases (26.9 pm), and two others with 84 & 83 cases respectively (as well as multiple smaller clusters).
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/26-more-cases-discharged-386-new-cases-of-covid-19-infection-confirmed

In Australia, more than 700 passengers (>27.6 pm) from the Ruby Princess ship have tested positive for COVID-19 (& 18 deaths). That is ~11% of total cases in Australia (around 1200 cases in Australia are cruise ship related). The 700 figure does not include around 900 passengers from other countries who left Australia or cases among the 1000 crew still on the ship (currently anchored in Australia). Nor from what I can gather, people subsequently infected in Australia by passengers from the ship. The Ruby Princess cluster in Australia is significantly bigger than the Marist College cluster, per capita or otherwise. Moreover, the total number of cases per capita is lower in Australia (250) than in NZ (275).
https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-ruby-princess-two-more-passengers-die/77402b59-bdf7-4c13-b4db-b7834b4a36b0

And one last example, South Korea. As of April 14, 5,211 cases (101 pm) were related to Shincheonji Church, accounting for over 49% of cases there (so five times the Marist cluster on a per capita basis). Cluster cases make up over 81% of the South Korean total. Data as published on April 14. And yes, the total number of cases per capita in South Korea (205) is lower than in NZ (275).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103080/south-korea-covid-19-cases-related-to-shincheonji-church/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1100121/south-korea-coronavirus-cases-by-exposure-location/

From the above our cluster sizes are far from being "much higher than elsewhere", per capita or otherwise. And in two of the three examples given, the total cases per capita is less than in NZ, so the 'low base' argument does not stand either.

pm = per million population

Edit: removed repeated comment

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#2461482 15-Apr-2020 00:04

This is fxd up, yo https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/14/1127726/contrarian-academics-oppose-nz-lockdown

Let those that are going to die anyway within the 12 months suffer a death akin to waterboarding?

You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

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#2461484 15-Apr-2020 00:22

MadEngineer: This is fxd up, yo https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/14/1127726/contrarian-academics-oppose-nz-lockdown

We live in a democracy where everyone gets to have a say, and getting lots of different opinions is a good thing even if we disagree with them. We have decent leadership, and eventually they'll take us down a reasonable path, maybe not the best one with later hindsight, but good enough. So let them have their say, you don't have to listen to it.

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#2461487 15-Apr-2020 00:43

MadEngineer: This is fxd up, yo https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/14/1127726/contrarian-academics-oppose-nz-lockdown

Let those that are going to die anyway within the 12 months suffer a death akin to waterboarding?

Firstly it goes against the WHO, who says countries need to get rid of the virus. If we learn to live with it, it means that anyone older than 60 or 70 or someone who has underlying health issues essentially may have to live in self isolation for potentially years until a vaccine comes out that is safe. They use Sweden as an example, but Sweden aren't doing very well. Based on NZs population vs Swedens, it would mean we would have around 500 deaths already, and I am guessing based on the number of ICU beds we have, that our health system would be overwhelmed at this point.

Also Australia shouldn't be looked at as an example. They have a far higher proportion of people hospitalised than NZ. This could indicate that they have a lot of cases that haven't been detected in the community. Especially as they had community transmission well before NZ.The problem NZ has is that our contact tracing has been manual and it is very slow. They also aren't looking at getting an app developed for it until mid may, which in terms of this virus, is a long way off.

neb

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#2461488 15-Apr-2020 00:45

neb: We live in a democracy where everyone gets to have a say, and getting lots of different opinions is a good thing even if we disagree with them.

Another point, from reading the entirety of that article, is that having someone come out and propose the wrong thing is helpful because it then gets publicly shot down where everyone else who may have been thinking the same wrong thing can see it. Without Thornley saying that and getting shot down at every point of the way, many others would have thought that and never been corrected. So again, publishing that was a good thing because it provided public insight into why that thinking is wrong.

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#2461490 15-Apr-2020 02:03

Rikkitic:
FineWine:

In todays BoP Times paper edition (has not appeared in the online edition yet) there is an article in the "World" section titled: Scientists find virus attacks immunity. This article is an abbreviated reprint from of an article that originally appeared in the South China Morning Post - Coronavirus could attack immune system like HIV by targeting protective cells, warn scientists.

It makes for interesting reading with caveats regarding its source. But apparently the article is a layman's explanation of a peer reviewed article published this week in the Cellular & Molecular Immunology publication.

Synopsis

* Researchers in China and the US find that the virus that causes Covid-19 can destroy the T cells that are supposed to protect the body from harmful invaders

* One doctor said concern is growing in medical circles that effect could be similar to HIV

I read the article (not the research paper). This damned virus just gets scarier and scarier. As a high risk individual, I may never dare leave home again. How does it help me that most young people get mild cases? How does it help them, for that matter? The virus will probably just keep coming back until it finally gets them, too.

@Rikkitic. Popular science summaries of research papers are notoriously inaccurate in the bigger picture. I'd wait longer before worrying about this one in detail. In the worst case, NZ is in a very good position for elimination and future ingress testing as new and pending test technologies come online. Too early to worry.

Btw, anyone replying to my posts in this topic please use @.

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#2461492 15-Apr-2020 02:28

Tinkerisk:

Batman:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/120971169/recovered-coronavirus-patients-in-south-korea-test-positive-for-a-second-time

When this becomes confirmed ... "Houston we have a problem."

Coming back to that point:

"Can people who have already had Covid 19 disease contract the virus again? Professor Christian Drosten, Head of Virology at the Charité in Berlin, addresses this question.

According to him, there are currently too few precise scientific studies on this. Drosten could see from Covid-19 patients from Munich that the virus was still present after her recovery. "The virus jumps above and below the detection limit," says Drosten. The test could not always detect the virus. Proof of recovery in recovered patients is more of a chance finding of pathogens."

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#2461494 15-Apr-2020 02:46

gzt: Popular science summaries of research papers are notoriously inaccurate. I'd wait longer before worrying about this one in detail. In the worst case, NZ is in a very good position for elimination and future ingress testing as new and pending test technologies come online. Too early to worry.

The SCMP summary appears to be fairly competently written, but the original paper is pretty heavy going. It may not be as bad as the article makes out, for example it only says that "T-cell lines were significantly more sensitive to SARS-CoV-2 infection when compared with SARS-CoV", and the conclusion is "Thus, the questions of SARS-CoV-2 infection and replication in primary T cells and whether the infection induces apoptosis (= cell death - neb) in T cells still need further research".

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#2461495 15-Apr-2020 03:47

Doesn't sound good to me ... https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52275823

Batman

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#2461498 15-Apr-2020 06:36

Tinkerisk:
Doesn't sound good to me ... https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52275823

Isn't that the same with the US?

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