2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2465449 19-Apr-2020 15:15

Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

My prediction is Level 3 after Anzac weekend. Just because the Monday is a stat, so kindof a freebie... an extra day of lockdown with no additional hit on the employers. Maybe only for DHB districts with no new cases for 3 days.

Level 3 isn't a free-for-all... it's still social distancing, no large gatherings, no pubs, no malls, work from home if able, no unnecessary travel.

vexxxboy

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#2465453 19-Apr-2020 15:24

Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.

Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.

the government has to be careful here , for weeks they have been saying we have to do this so we dont over run the hospitals and people die , we know its hard etc . Then just when people think that the end Level 4 is in site as cases drop etc, say sorry you can do even better we are going to extend it a for a couple more weeks. will people be willing to do it for a couple more weeks .

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Paul1977

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#2465454 19-Apr-2020 15:28

frankv:
My prediction is Level 3 after Anzac weekend. Just because the Monday is a stat, so kindof a freebie... an extra day of lockdown with no additional hit on the employers. Maybe only for DHB districts with no new cases for 3 days.

Level 3 isn't a free-for-all... it's still social distancing, no large gatherings, no pubs, no malls, work from home if able, no unnecessary travel.

Schools are the biggest problem in my opinion. Enforcing social distancing in young children doesn’t sound all that plausible to me.

And you can bet plenty of people will send their kids back to school even if they are still unable to go to work themselves - just to have a break from them.

Paul1977

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#2465459 19-Apr-2020 15:36

vexxxboy:
the government has to be careful here , for weeks they have been saying we have to do this so we dont over run the hospitals and people die , we know its hard etc . Then just when people think that the end Level 4 is in site as cases drop etc, say sorry you can do even better we are going to extend it a for a couple more weeks. will people be willing to do it for a couple more weeks .

True, but they have been pretty clear the entire time that the 4 weeks wasn’t a definite date.

Also, at some point the goal posts seemed to shift from slowing the spread to eliminating it entirely.

If elimination truly is the goal, then I think we need to stay the course until we aren’t getting any unexplained cases.

A short extension of level 4 now might result in a big reduction in the time we’ll require at level 3.

neb

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#2465463 19-Apr-2020 15:50

Paul1977: they have been pretty clear the entire time that the 4 weeks wasn’t a definite date.

They may have been clear, but is the public clear on it as well? The impression I got from chatting to neighbours is that the expectation is that once four weeks are up, that's it. Meaning not back to level 0, but at least level 4 is over.

cshwone

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#2465467 19-Apr-2020 15:53

Paul1977:
vexxxboy:

the government has to be careful here , for weeks they have been saying we have to do this so we dont over run the hospitals and people die , we know its hard etc . Then just when people think that the end Level 4 is in site as cases drop etc, say sorry you can do even better we are going to extend it a for a couple more weeks. will people be willing to do it for a couple more weeks .

True, but they have been pretty clear the entire time that the 4 weeks wasn’t a definite date.

Also, at some point the goal posts seemed to shift from slowing the spread to eliminating it entirely.

If elimination truly is the goal, then I think we need to stay the course until we aren’t getting any unexplained cases.

A short extension of level 4 now might result in a big reduction in the time we’ll require at level 3.

Like today?

Batman

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#2465469 19-Apr-2020 15:59

take it easy. level 3 is just like level 4, but with KFC. except for maybe the schools bit. they really just need to up the contact tracing.

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mattwnz

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#2465470 19-Apr-2020 16:04

vexxxboy:
Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.

Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.

the government has to be careful here , for weeks they have been saying we have to do this so we dont over run the hospitals and people die , we know its hard etc . Then just when people think that the end Level 4 is in site as cases drop etc, say sorry you can do even better we are going to extend it a for a couple more weeks. will people be willing to do it for a couple more weeks .

There has been a lot of chatter that it will be after ANZAC weekend. Doesn't really make sense for it to be before then, and buys the government a few extra non working days. Interesting that polls I have seen , the majority of NZers want it extending which gives me the impression that they are concerned that it is still spreading and they don't want to see any new cases before we go out of lockdown

We don't appear to be yet down to the level needed for elimination. Especially as we are still getting random new cases popping up, one which may involve someone who is working and involves contacting other people in his workplace. Workplaces and schools, like resthomes will be a place where bubbles merge and it could spread.
They also say that they are going to start doing some of the previously delayed work, which when mixed with a potential rise in cases under level 3 could be an issue. But didn't I hear the health minister on yesterdays one news saying that they have enough PPE for a couple of weeks. I jwould hate to know what would have happened with supplies if NZs cases did spike and we had delayed level 4 lockdown by a few weeks.

Going down to level 3 will no doubt increase the R0, due to more people potentially coming in contact with one another with both work and school, but hopefully it will still be a lot less than 1.

But I don't think we have done enough community testing to go down to level 3 yet, as we need to know exactly where all cases are. 1000 odd tests of supermarket shoppers had a very low chance of finding a case as per my previous post. It is like finding a needle in a haystack. The contract tracing system also needs improving which they are aware of.
The other interesting thing is that it appears that the country as a whole may move to level 3, as there hasn't been any recent discussion about only bringing some areas out of it. IMO This all goes to show that if we hadn't gone into level 4 lockdown when we did, which also gave us the chance to take stock of the systems, and improve them, we could have been in big trouble.

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#2465472 19-Apr-2020 16:08

frankv:

Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

My prediction is Level 3 after Anzac weekend. Just because the Monday is a stat, so kindof a freebie... an extra day of lockdown with no additional hit on the employers. Maybe only for DHB districts with no new cases for 3 days.

Level 3 isn't a free-for-all... it's still social distancing, no large gatherings, no pubs, no malls, work from home if able, no unnecessary travel.

I agree allow another week before Level 3 as that allows:

The MoH to get in place their full tracing capability (which at today's media conference today was stated won't be in place for another week and is one of the 'requirements' to exit level 4)
More random testing
The Ministry of Education to refine the voluntary back to school requirement
Business more time to prepare for level 3
Another week of data

If they extend a week these will be the reasons cited esp. #1. The vast majority of the public won't have an issue with an extra week (or 6 days)

Batman

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#2465484 19-Apr-2020 16:16

xlinknz:

I agree allow another week before Level 3 as that allows:

The MoH to get in place their full tracing capability (which at today's media conference today was stated won't be in place for another week and is one of the 'requirements' to exit level 4)
More random testing
The Ministry of Education to refine the voluntary back to school requirement
Business more time to prepare for level 3
Another week of data

If they extend a week these will be the reasons cited esp. #1. The vast majority of the public won't have an issue with an extra week (or 6 days)

eh what were we doing for the last 3 weeks?

but if that's the case then yeah we won't be coming out of level 4.

Oblivian

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#2465486 19-Apr-2020 16:21

The 'this week'

Referred to a centralised national tracing ability. At present they need the individual data from dhbs submitted. And to then collate. That adds delays ~3 days.

14:20

https://youtu.be/8rUkVDghtNw

kingdragonfly

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#2465489 19-Apr-2020 16:26

Just for future reference, not specific to corona virus.

An examples of passive immunity is rabies, a viral disease usually caused by a bite. You get rabies shots after you're infected. Passive immunity is not preferred because it tends to be expensive and difficult to scale. It diminishes with time, somewhere between few weeks and a year maximum.

Four Types of Immunity

Dr Matt & Dr Mike
In this video, Dr Mike looks at the four types of adaptive immunity:

Active (natural)
active (artificial)
Passive (natural)
active (artificial)

FineWine

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#2465495 19-Apr-2020 16:36

Elimination is the big chilli in the ice cream here and TRACING is the key.

My thoughts are drop to Level 3 for 14 days plus really ramp up random testing NZ wide. Then go to Level 2 if no new clusters or CT cases.

In level two the likes of Mitre10/Bunnings/Office Works can open but treated like supermarkets are now - controlled numbers and queue spacing. Small Restaurants can have pick-up take a ways but no smorgasbord service. Large restaurants can have distanced setting with max of 2 person bubbles. Hair salons and barbers can open with appropriate chair spacing but the stylists and barbers must wear masks and face shields. (masks will reduce their likelihood of hairdresser lung anyway). BUT shopping malls are still closed.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

frednz

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#2465500 19-Apr-2020 16:40

I like to compare how NZ is doing compared to other countries. I think the table inserted below is a very useful aid to seeing just how we are doing. Apologies if this table has already been posted, I haven't been able to keep up with all the posts here!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325831

From the above:

New Zealand has the most stringent Covid-19 policy restrictions in the world, matched only by Israel and India, according to Oxford University's coronavirus government response tracker.

The links between the stringency index, the number of confirmed cases and case mortality, are complex. In the case of New Zealand, good health outcomes are largely the result of stringent policy. In Italy, the reverse is the case as policy stringency followed rapidly deteriorating health outcomes.

NZ has only 20 confirmed cases per 100,000 and a very low case mortality of 0.1%. Compare this, for example, with the UK which has 83.1 confirmed cases per 100,000 and a case mortality of 11.1%. So, overall, I think NZ is doing pretty well, but as people keep pointing out, let's not relax too much too early.

Photo / Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker

nzkc

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#2465504 19-Apr-2020 16:45

Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.

Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.

I think we will. Today's press conference has made me think this. Especially the fact the random community testing being done has, so far, yielded zero positive results. I got the impression they've target cities/areas where they have some potentially unexplained case(s) to see if there is community transmission there. With zero positive results its very encouraging. If not on Wednesday, then quite soon I think. Or if delayed, it might be a case of something like: "we'll come out of lockdown on Friday if no new cases are found from our random testing in the community by then".

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