2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Master Geek
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#2465815 20-Apr-2020 08:25

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

Yes it is. It was never decreed to eliminate all, the plan was always to mop up the odd case as they turned up. If it was to be full on eliminate, Level 4 would have no end date, as the end date would be unknown, we would stay in it, until some target, say 15 days with zero cases after massive testing was achieved, that could be months

Jacinda Ardern repeatedly advised that Alert level 4 meant "eliminate" here is but one example

https://www.thehits.co.nz/the-latest/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-raises-new-zealands-covid-19-response-to-alert-level-3-level-4-in-48-hours/

Yes I agree, and I understood it like that too.

Coming out of Level 4 if we still have to 'mop up' is a failure in my mind because then we have not achieved what level 4 was set out to achieve.

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#2465816 20-Apr-2020 08:30

tdgeek:

Thats not correct, these active cases are in lockdown, they are to remain is self isolation until 10 days after symptoms and 2 days clear of symptoms, so there are not 550 people wandering around the community or supermarkets. Yes, there are vagaries with the virus, some of these may be infective after that, but its low numbers. Hopefully Level 3 will raise that threshold.

Except that one was caught in a supermarket this week, so how many others are doing it? We go back and we have 10% of those 550 going out for a "stretch" and we are back to the same starting point we were a month ago.

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#2465820 20-Apr-2020 08:40

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

Yes it is. It was never decreed to eliminate all, the plan was always to mop up the odd case as they turned up. If it was to be full on eliminate, Level 4 would have no end date, as the end date would be unknown, we would stay in it, until some target, say 15 days with zero cases after massive testing was achieved, that could be months

Jacinda Ardern repeatedly advised that Alert level 4 meant "eliminate" here is but one example

https://www.thehits.co.nz/the-latest/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-raises-new-zealands-covid-19-response-to-alert-level-3-level-4-in-48-hours/

Under What Level 4 means

"If we flush out cases we already have, and slow down transmission, areas could move out of level 4, she said."

This tells me that level 4 is the method to eliminate the virus, which is different from having zero virus anywhere in NZ . It was for a minimum term of 4 weeks, now no one on this Earth would see complete removal in 28 days. Its a method not a result IMO. If it was the result we would not be having any announcement at 4pm. One day in maybe 3 months, when cases are zero everyday, then that conversaton would start to be discussed, and after 100,000's random tests

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#2465822 20-Apr-2020 08:44

NumPy:

Yes I agree, and I understood it like that too.

Coming out of Level 4 if we still have to 'mop up' is a failure in my mind because then we have not achieved what level 4 was set out to achieve.

Why did Dr Ashley mentions this weeks ago? And as I just posted, when CT is reduced. Why are we discussing what happends at 4pm today when its patently obvious its not eliminated? Why are we having that announcement? With your interpretation, there is nothing to announce as we get cases every day still

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#2465825 20-Apr-2020 08:46

I have a mate who hates this lockdown, if I ask him, as I have, what he thinks will happen today, he tells me Alert level 3 for 2 weeks them 2. Thats what he wants, whuch is not the same as what he thinks is wise.

MikeB4

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#2465828 20-Apr-2020 08:47

tdgeek:

Under What Level 4 means

"If we flush out cases we already have, and slow down transmission, areas could move out of level 4, she said."

This tells me that level 4 is the method to eliminate the virus, which is different from having zero virus anywhere in NZ . It was for a minimum term of 4 weeks, now no one on this Earth would see complete removal in 28 days. Its a method not a result IMO. If it was the result we would not be having any announcement at 4pm. One day in maybe 3 months, when cases are zero everyday, then that conversaton would start to be discussed, and after 100,000's random tests

I am sorry did you even read this. "Alert level Four: Eliminate"

These are the words the PM used countless times. It is what was intended in level 4 and advised a gazillion times. I don't believe you understand what the term eliminate means in this context, the MOH has detailed information. I am not going to engage in semantics. The PM and the MOH has been very clear and that is where I take my information from.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2465830 20-Apr-2020 08:50

Linux: @Batman please provide links off to these reports please!

Melinda Gates under fire after speaking to CNN https://www.thezimbabwemail.com/world-news/i-see-dead-bodies-on-african-streets-soon-melinda-gates-predicts/

NumPy

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Master Geek
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#2465832 20-Apr-2020 08:53

tdgeek:

NumPy:

Yes I agree, and I understood it like that too.

Coming out of Level 4 if we still have to 'mop up' is a failure in my mind because then we have not achieved what level 4 was set out to achieve.

Why did Dr Ashley mentions this weeks ago? And as I just posted, when CT is reduced. Why are we discussing what happends at 4pm today when its patently obvious its not eliminated? Why are we having that announcement? With your interpretation, there is nothing to announce as we get cases every day still

Um what does "level 4 - Eliminate" mean to you? Read the link Mike posted.

tdgeek

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#2465833 20-Apr-2020 08:54

freitasm:

tdgeek:

Thats not correct, these active cases are in lockdown, they are to remain is self isolation until 10 days after symptoms and 2 days clear of symptoms, so there are not 550 people wandering around the community or supermarkets. Yes, there are vagaries with the virus, some of these may be infective after that, but its low numbers. Hopefully Level 3 will raise that threshold.

Except that one was caught in a supermarket this week, so how many others are doing it? We go back and we have 10% of those 550 going out for a "stretch" and we are back to the same starting point we were a month ago.

Yes, that happened, as well as well over 1000 known flouts, plus probably 5 times as many unknown flouts. Extending Level 4 (which I have no issue with) for 1 or 2 weeks won't help that much. Either we say its really low now, we can manage it, as it pops up in the odd location, or we continue with level 4 for at least two more months if we wish to use Level 4 as full elimination. I have a feeling that flouting will explode with much more Level 4. I'd be happy with another month of it, that wont eliminate it, but it will be lower than now, which I feel is already pretty low. Three more months, that makes 4, and its sorted. But thats very severe to the economy. Right now we have a great result and we can manage it, IMO. Easy enough to put one or more areas back to 4

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#2465839 20-Apr-2020 09:00

MikeB4:

I am sorry did you even read this. "Alert level Four: Eliminate"

These are the words the PM used countless times. It is what was intended in level 4 and advised a gazillion times. I don't believe you understand what the term eliminate means in this context, the MOH has detailed information. I am not going to engage in semantics. The PM and the MOH has been very clear and that is where I take my information from.

I have already told you that I take that as the method, you take it as the 100% Govt guaranteed result. Irts not semantics. Why has Dr A stated many times that when we have it under control we can engage in ring fencing local outbreaks? Why did thre PM in your link state that reduced transmission we can move out of level 4. No, its not semantics at all. If it was there would not only be no announcement today by PM and MoH there would be no reason to even schedule it yet. And if Level was Eliminate in the absolute, there is no need for Levels 3, 2 or 1. You would just need a policy on border policy

clinty

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#2465840 20-Apr-2020 09:00

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

Under What Level 4 means

"If we flush out cases we already have, and slow down transmission, areas could move out of level 4, she said."

This tells me that level 4 is the method to eliminate the virus, which is different from having zero virus anywhere in NZ . It was for a minimum term of 4 weeks, now no one on this Earth would see complete removal in 28 days. Its a method not a result IMO. If it was the result we would not be having any announcement at 4pm. One day in maybe 3 months, when cases are zero everyday, then that conversaton would start to be discussed, and after 100,000's random tests

I am sorry did you even read this. "Alert level Four: Eliminate"

These are the words the PM used countless times. It is what was intended in level 4 and advised a gazillion times. I don't believe you understand what the term eliminate means in this context, the MOH has detailed information. I am not going to engage in semantics. The PM and the MOH has been very clear and that is where I take my information from.

That graphic is now out of date - it was put up four weeks ago :) The govt has been moving the goal posts as newer inforamtion has come to hand

the latest definitions (as at 16/4) are on the Covid website

Level 4 Lockdown
Likely that disease is not contained.

Risk assessment
Community transmission is occurring.
Widespread outbreaks and new clusters.

Level 3 Restrict
High risk the disease is not contained.

Risk assessment
Community transmission might be happening.
New clusters may emerge but can be controlled through testing and contact tracing.

Level 2 Reduce
The disease is contained, but the risk of community transmission remains.

Risk assessment
Household transmission could be occurring.
Single or isolated cluster outbreaks.

Level 1 Prepare
The disease is contained in New Zealand.

Risk assessment
COVID-19 is uncontrolled overseas.
Isolated household transmission could be occurring In New Zealand

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tdgeek

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#2465842 20-Apr-2020 09:05

NumPy:

Um what does "level 4 - Eliminate" mean to you? Read the link Mike posted.

Um? You can re read my post if you didnt comprehend the difference between a method and an absolute result. Why is there an announvement today to decide if we go to Level 3? We can't if we are still getting cases, can we?

NumPy

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Master Geek
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#2465845 20-Apr-2020 09:09

tdgeek:

NumPy:

Um what does "level 4 - Eliminate" mean to you? Read the link Mike posted.

Um? You can re read my post if you didnt comprehend the difference between a method and an absolute result. Why is there an announvement today to decide if we go to Level 3? We can't if we are still getting cases, can we?

I don't know I am not part of the goverment. To be honest I am surprised there is an announcement today because we have not yet eliminated this thing. Maybe the announcement is just going to confirm we stay at level 4. I hope so.

MikeB4

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#2465851 20-Apr-2020 09:20

@tdgeek please show me precisely where I stated " you take it as the 100% Govt guaranteed result"

If you are going to assert and attribute to people please be accurate.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

tdgeek

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#2465853 20-Apr-2020 09:22

NumPy:

I don't know I am not part of the goverment. To be honest I am surprised there is an announcement today because we have not yet eliminated this thing. Maybe the announcement is just going to confirm we stay at level 4. I hope so.

I feel elimination will take a few months. Level 4 was the elimination "method" IMO, its now manageable, so with no thousands of travellers arriving every day and upsetting matters, and more testing, we are well placed to mop it up over time. Just my opinion. Im good to extend L4 if they decide that.

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