2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2466535 20-Apr-2020 18:51

frednz:

Further to my post above, the PM in today's 4pm announcement gave some clarification of how the Government views the term "elimination". The PM said this:

"Elimination doesn't mean zero cases, it means zero tolerance for cases, it means when a case emerges, and it will, we test, we contact trace, we isolate, and we do that every single time with the ambition that when we see covid we eliminate it. That is how we will keep our transmission rate under "one" and it is how we will keep succeeding."

So, the Government is pointing out to journalists around the world that NZ's interpretation of the term elimination doesn't mean zero cases. I'm pleased the PM gave this clarification because many people are of the view that it's far too early yet to know whether this virus can in fact be completely "eliminated".

I think there is a lot of confusion around the what the words elimination and eradication actually mean, when it comes to this. But it is clearly defined as below, and elimination does mean the zero incidence as a result of deliberate effort, but continuing intervention is needed. Professor Skegg said at the select committee early on that we could eliminate it while in level 4 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12321119

My understanding is elimination is

Elimination of disease: Reduction to zero of the incidence of a specified disease in a defined geographical area as a result of deliberate efforts; continued intervention measures are required. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su48a7.htm

My understanding is eradication is

Eradication: Permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts; intervention measures are no longer needed. Example: smallpox. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su48a7.htm

So it appears we can really only talk about eliminating it from NZ, because it will continue to exist in the rest of the world, until a vaccine is introduced, but even then I do wonder it if can be eradicated from all parts of the world long term. I suppose if we talk about eradicating it from NZ, then we have to then say that NZ will have to rely of quarantining to make sure no new cases get into NZ.

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#2466536 20-Apr-2020 18:51

The absurd case against the lockdown.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-crisis-case-against-lockdown-absurd/

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#2466541 20-Apr-2020 18:58

My Daughter who is a Doctor(not working as a GP or hospital) now working as a researcher working on cures for several conditions tells me that the thinking that schools could open is insane. Children are not immune and the transmission of diseases occurs and at a high rate at schools and the school environment makes it very hard to avoid it. She says if it were safe then we would not see Measles, Mumps, Chicken Pox, Flu , Cold etc etc transmission occurring. She believes the opening of schools should occur when it is deemed safe to open commerce.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

mattwnz

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#2466545 20-Apr-2020 19:05

tdgeek:

Rise 0.48 to over 1? Because of workplaces and schools?

.

The modeling that was commissioned does give some indication to what different infection rates are at different levels, and based on how long we remain in level 4 for. But I didn't say that infection rates would rise to over 1 in level 3, just that they have said that the infection rate will likely rise, as there is more opportunity for people to come in contact with one another and bubbles will grow. But if it does rise to over 1, then cases will go up. We don't know what it will rise to, that is the unknown. Some of the modeling though for level 3 shows it to be over 1.

But the modeling does show that the longer one stays in level 4 for, the better the odds of potentially eliminating it earlier.

The modeling under level 4 however doesn't appear to have tracked to the modeling. It appears we have done significantly better than the modeling shows. One of the models showed 90 days of level 4 to get it down to very low levels, but we seem to be tracking a lot better than that. That is why I think at least two experts have suggested 2 extra weeks based on current data. But the data is still not great, and we are still largely relying on people who are sick going to get tested.

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#2466568 20-Apr-2020 19:34

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Rise 0.48 to over 1? Because of workplaces and schools?

.

The modeling that was commissioned does give some indication to what different infection rates are at different levels, and based on how long we remain in level 4 for. But I didn't say that infection rates would rise to over 1 in level 3, just that they have said that the infection rate will likely rise, as there is more opportunity for people to come in contact with one another and bubbles will grow. But if it does rise to over 1, then cases will go up. We don't know what it will rise to, that is the unknown. Some of the modeling though for level 3 shows it to be over 1.

But the modeling does show that the longer one stays in level 4 for, the better the odds of potentially eliminating it earlier.

The modeling under level 4 however doesn't appear to have tracked to the modeling. It appears we have done significantly better than the modeling shows. One of the models showed 90 days of level 4 to get it down to very low levels, but we seem to be tracking a lot better than that. That is why I think at least two experts have suggested 2 extra weeks based on current data. But the data is still not great, and we are still largely relying on people who are sick going to get tested.

Sorry my mistake.

Need to be careful with modeling.It needs 3 months to work, we are down to single digit cases in 1. The modelling doesn't work here. I suspect that our situation is unique. Our infectors all arrived by plane. other countries they can swan in anywhere. This is probably why we have very very few CT, I heard 9 today, in total. We also locked down sooner than most, so it never really got traction here . I feel thats why modelling overrates the virus here, it under rated our situation. Imagine if infectors arrived by boat at any of 30 locations in NZ, every day. Tough. At least here they all went through Arrivals. And even then in a small handful of airports.

Going early really paid off, it never got out of second gear. Now its really low, we have tests to spare.And plenty of contact tracing finally, its now electronic and integrated.

Im also less pessimistic about workplaces exposing us. Supermarkets have no cases. Not even one. Businesses will be careful as if they get one case, they will be shut. We have flouters, but the key people, i.e. supermarkets, lots of exposure, crowded, has stayed clean. The advantage now is there would appear to be very few infectors wandering around now. Perfect for level 3. Businesses can recover, people get some retail therapy in a far less risky environment then 28 days ago.

That's my feeling.

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#2466570 20-Apr-2020 19:38

From a discussion with a neighbour yesterday whose son is a plumber: People are focusing on medical workers (quite deservedly so) and supermarket workers, but perhaps omitting another group of workers who have to go out and (potentially) face Covid19 every day, tradespeople. Every day when he goes out to work he has to wear PPE, carefully disinfect himself between jobs and when he's finished for the day, then put all of the clothes he's worn through the wash, and sleep in a separate room to reduce the risk of contact with his family. So when you see a sparkie or plumber or builder or whatever working during level 4, thank them for the work they're doing alongside medical and supermarket workers.

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#2466597 20-Apr-2020 19:44

@mattwnz I agree with pretty much everything you’ve said.

But the decision has been made, so all we can do now is to do our part and encourage others to do their part as well. That is the only way we can eliminate it.

If the reality of Level 4 tracked better than the models, then hopefully Level 3 will track better as well. We may still be able to eliminate it if everyone does their part.

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#2466601 20-Apr-2020 19:52

I've reinforced a number of times today to others what Lvl4 vs lvl3 means to joe bloggs (it's not like malls are going to be open anyway..)

Feel free to also remind them Again.

frednz

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#2466606 20-Apr-2020 20:00

Paul1977: @mattwnz I agree with pretty much every you’ve said.

But the decision has been made, so all we can do now is to do our part and encourage others to do their part as well. That is the only way we can eliminate it.

If the reality of Level 4 tracked better than the models, then hopefully Level 3 will track better as well. We may still be able to eliminate it if everyone does their part.

Perhaps the only way of completely locally eliminating or world-wide eradicating this particular virus is the use of a vaccine. The PM also said in today's statement:

"We believe that decisive action of going hard and going early, gave us the very best chance of stamping out the virus, and it has. We have done what very few other countries have been able to do, we have stopped a wave of devastation."

I agree, NZ has done really well and I'm pleased I'm living here and not, for example, in the UK. But, now, the PM has introduced another term "stamping out" the virus. I guess there's nothing wrong with this as long as people take note of the PM's other statement that "elimination doesn't mean zero cases, it means zero tolerance for cases".

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#2466615 20-Apr-2020 20:29

1426 new cases in Singapore https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-new-cases-1426-foreign-workers-dormitory-citizen-pr-moh-12658250

Virus likes crowding, virus don't like separation

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#2466620 20-Apr-2020 20:41

Bloomberg: ‘We Needed to Go’: Rich Americans Activate Pandemic Escape Plans

Interest in New Zealand bunkers has surged.

...For years, New Zealand has featured prominently in the doomsday survival plans of wealthy Americans worried that, say, a killer germ might paralyze the world. Isolated at the edge of the earth, more than 1,000 miles off the southern coast of Australia, New Zealand is home to about 4.9 million people, about a fifth as many as the New York metro area. The clean, green, island nation is known for its natural beauty, laid-back politicians and premier health facilities.

In recent weeks, the country has been lauded for its response to the pandemic. It enforced a four-week lockdown early, and today has more recoveries than cases. Only 12 people have died from the disease. The U.S. death toll stands at more than 39,000, meaning that country’s death rate per capita is about 50 times higher.

The underground global shelter network Vivos already has installed a 300-person bunker in the South Island, just north of Christchurch, said Robert Vicino, the founder of the California-based company. He’s fielded two calls in the past week from prospective clients eager to build additional shelters on the island.

...Rising S Co. has planted about 10 private bunkers in New Zealand over the past several years. The average cost is $3 million for a shelter weighing about 150 tons, but it can easily go as high as $8 million with additional features like luxury bathrooms, game rooms, shooting ranges, gyms, theaters and surgical beds.

...Some Silicon Valley denizens have already made the move to New Zealand as the pandemic has escalated. On March 12, Mihai Dinulescu decided to pull the plug on the cryptocurrency startup he was launching to flee to the remote country.

...Dinulescu said he has connected with about 10 people in New Zealand who made the jump before the shutdown, but “a lot of venture capital people I know were not afraid enough in time for the border close,” Dinulescu said. “And now they can’t get in.” After the shutdown was announced, however, local press reported a slight increase in private plane landings in the country.

Dinulescu is now working for Ao Air, a small startup that's designing an air filtration mask to rival the N95. Its co-founder, New Zealander Dan Bowden, said he’s fielded inquiries from about a dozen hopeful employees from the U.S. tech industry since the start of the pandemic, but that generally he’s wary of these requests.

"Some people are scared and reaching out just because they want a visa," Bowden said. One potential U.S.-based investor even asked if he would be eligible for New Zealand residency if he boosted his investment in the startup. Notably, New Zealand does offer an investor visa for about $6 million for three years.

The current travel restrictions complement another order, passed in August 2018, banning foreigners from buying Kiwi homes, partly in response to Americans gobbling up swaths of the country's prime real estate. That’s been a hurdle for New Zealand luxury real estate agent Graham Wall, who said that in recent weeks he’s gotten about half a dozen calls from wealthy Americans hoping to buy up properties on the island.

"They have all said it looks like the safest place to be is New Zealand right now,” he said. “That’s been a theory since before Covid-19.”
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/-we-needed-to-go-rich-americans-activate-pandemic-escape-plans

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#2466623 20-Apr-2020 20:44

question: I thought Americans can't buy property here (other than investments and new apartments)?

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#2466629 20-Apr-2020 20:56

From Stuff:

Takeaway hamburgers and pizza and subs are back on the menu as McDonald's, Domino's and Subway get ready to reopen next Tuesday.

McDonald's is confident the majority of its restaurants with drive-throughs will open across the country when lockdown lifts next Tuesday, while Domino's is ready to deliver pizzas across the country without any contact.

But what is the eta for Flour and Yeast at the Supermarket?

Paul1977

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#2466630 20-Apr-2020 21:00

Other members will be more informed than me...

How does our Level 3 compare with lockdowns other countries are implementing?

I hope the media starts referring to it as a Level 3 lockdown to drive home the point that it’s still very serious. As others have pointed out, the talk of the “lockdown being lifted” by the media sends the wrong message.

mentalinc

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#2466640 20-Apr-2020 21:32

Paul1977:
tdgeek:

One News just said that we will be in knockdown for another 5 days, thats a poor thing to tell people. We are in lockdown in L3. Sends the wrong message.

I was thinking the same thing myself.

Agree still lockdown but lets all count together

Going from the 5 days in your post (I really hope they said 7)

All day Tuesday - 1 day

All day Wednesday - 2 days

All day Thursday- 3 days

All day Friday - 4 days

All day Saturday - 5 days

All day Sunday - 6 days

All day Monday - 7 days (well technically 2 minutes short)

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