2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2466642 20-Apr-2020 21:35

mentalinc: Agree still lockdown but lets all count together Going from the 5 days in your post (I really hope they said 7) All day Tuesday - 1 day All day Wednesday - 2 days All day Thursday- 3 days All day Friday - 4 days All day Saturday - 5 days All day Sunday - 6 days All day Monday - 7 days (well technically 2 minutes short)

ou are 2 days off. it is extended from the original date

Paul1977

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#2466644 20-Apr-2020 21:38

Batman:
mentalinc: Agree still lockdown but lets all count together Going from the 5 days in your post (I really hope they said 7) All day Tuesday - 1 day All day Wednesday - 2 days All day Thursday- 3 days All day Friday - 4 days All day Saturday - 5 days All day Sunday - 6 days All day Monday - 7 days (well technically 2 minutes short)

ou are 2 days off. it is extended from the original date

Yes; 7 days from today, so a 5 day extension to the 4 weeks.

Geektastic

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#2466728 21-Apr-2020 01:00

Batman:

question: I thought Americans can't buy property here (other than investments and new apartments)?

They can if the have citizenship or PR, of course. They can also rent.

There are also probably ways of doing it using corporate structures but I have not investigated.

Also, if you have a great deal of money, you can come under the investor category which may allow purchase.

Sidestep

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#2466745 21-Apr-2020 02:07

Batman:

question: I thought Americans can't buy property here (other than investments and new apartments)?

O/T but..

Non Residential Investment includes "Farms" and "Tourism operations"

Property preferred by 'prepper' type US investors is remote and scenic, in the mountains or coastal.
Think a Far North Coastal Peninsula for an 'exclusive lodge' or large grazing property bounded by National Parks.

If you aren’t a New Zealand citizen, don’t ordinarily live here - or are an entity, such as company, trust or joint venture, with more than 25 per cent overseas ownership or control, you'll likely need your lawyer to pass it by the OIO - that theoretically includes 'associates' (New Zealanders) buying for overseas investors.

Residential's tougher, you'll need to get consent from the Overseas Investment Office, and commit to spending some time in NZ.

Tinkerisk

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#2466750 21-Apr-2020 03:38

Paul1977:

vexxxboy:

The pm did mention the 1000 random tests that were all negative as proof that we are doing things right.

With a population of 5 million, you'd need 5000 community cases to pick up just one with that small number of tests. Unfortunately that isn't proof of anything, so I REALLY hope they didn't base any decisions on that.

You could use dices instead. Crazy math.

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#2466759 21-Apr-2020 07:48

Batman: question: Regarding bunkers, I thought Americans can't buy property here (other than investments and new apartments)?

Money always finds a way. I'm sure there's plenty of Kiwis willing to buy on the orders of a billionaire.

TeaLeaf

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#2466760 21-Apr-2020 07:56

If we had the ability to test like South Korea or germany and know who is asymptomatic or is now non contagious with anti bodies we really could get this economy back into full swing real fast.

But hoping that we have starved the virus out and then jumping on hotspots could see us just fluctuating out of level 2 and 4 every 4 weeks.

What are the chances of NZ getting its hands of the test kits South Korea is using? I know Germany was developing an ultra fast kit that can give results in approx 30 minutes.

That is the real answer for Britain as well. They have no excuses being an island. Yes they have a lot more people in and out. But they should have been on top of the threat more diligently than NZ, ie closing borders and lock down 2 weeks before NZ did. As for the USA. Trump is the same as sausage Johnson, he doesnt actually have a plan and is winging it hoping a vacine will be made in the USA within weeks, which it will, but will only be available for front line medical staff first, so any mass vaccinations could still be 6 months off for him.

But the reality is he will be hated if the economy gets below the great depression and he will be hated if millions of elderly people die. So being a money Man, Im picking hes going with the economy first and public health second.

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cshwone

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#2466761 21-Apr-2020 07:59

Time for a change in reporting

As we now know when we move to Level 3 I believe it is also time for a change in emphasis by both MoH and the media on how they are reporting the numbers. At the moment all the data, info and graphics are all geared around the headline number of the total number of cases. ie after the "It's x number of new cases today" the next bit then references a new total of cases. All the MoH and media graphics show the total number of cases.

To me, and I hope people agree, referencing the total number of cases at this stage is meaningless and largely irrelevant.

What we need, I would suggest, is a change to the emphasis to what will drive us forward. It should be along the lines of:-

"Today NZ has 210 active cases which are derived from 4 new cases today and a reduction of 46 since yesterday"

And change all the graphics to show the active cases per region. That's the important number coupled with daily new cases and should act as a motivator. At the moment when we announce the new cases and a new total it's just more numbers and a slight increase on some other numbers which doesn't really do anything.

If we announce active cases and new cases everyone can get on board with that. Use it to motivate people because after all the whole aim is to drive that number to zero.

Hope I have explained that successfully. It's a simple change of emphasis which could do a lot to motivate.

Ge0rge

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#2466763 21-Apr-2020 08:15

Pretty sure I brought this up about 3 or so weeks ago - we'll never get to zero, because they keep reporting every case in an increasing tally.

Active only means so much more and is much easier for people to comprehend - if you've recovered you are, for all intents and purposes, irrelevant.

tdgeek

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#2466764 21-Apr-2020 08:16

cshwone:

Time for a change in reporting

As we now know when we move to Level 3 I believe it is also time for a change in emphasis by both MoH and the media on how they are reporting the numbers. At the moment all the data, info and graphics are all geared around the headline number of the total number of cases. ie after the "It's x number of new cases today" the next bit then references a new total of cases. All the MoH and media graphics show the total number of cases.

To me, and I hope people agree, the total number of cases at this stage are meaningless and largely irrelevant.

What we need, I would suggest, is a change to the emphasis to what will drive us forward. It should be along the lines of:-

"Today NZ has 210 active cases which is derived from 4 new cases today and a reduction of 46 since yesterday"

And change all the graphics to show the active cases per region. That's the important number coupled with daily new cases and should act as a motivator. When we announce the new cases and a new total it's just more numbers and a slight increase on some other numbers which doesn't really do anything.

If we announce active cases and new cases everyone can get on board with that. Use it to motivate people because after all the whole aim is to drive that number to zero.

Hope I have explained that successfully. It's a simple change of emphasis which could do a lot to motivate.

Agree fully. I have no interest in hearing there are 9 cases today if they are in same family, rest home etc. Yes they do matter, but the only ones that matter for L3 is any cases in this town that we cant see how they got it. Bubble to another bubble is what matters and how and why

GV27

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#2466813 21-Apr-2020 08:52

Yes I have had this comment from others as well, it's pointless knowing how many total cases we had and how many recoveries as a running total when some of those will be weeks old now.

frankv

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#2466817 21-Apr-2020 09:00

cshwone:

What we need, I would suggest, is a change to the emphasis to what will drive us forward. It should be along the lines of:-

"Today NZ has 210 active cases which are derived from 4 new cases today and a reduction of 46 since yesterday"

Blowing my own trumpet, but for those who don't follow it, I've been graphing these daily over in the COVID-19 Data Analysis thread.

PolicyGuy

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#2466827 21-Apr-2020 09:13

cshwone:

Time for a change in reporting

As we now know when we move to Level 3 I believe it is also time for a change in emphasis by both MoH and the media on how they are reporting the numbers. At the moment all the data, info and graphics are all geared around the headline number of the total number of cases. ie after the "It's x number of new cases today" the next bit then references a new total of cases. All the MoH and media graphics show the total number of cases.

To me, and I hope people agree, referencing the total number of cases at this stage is meaningless and largely irrelevant.

What we need, I would suggest, is a change to the emphasis to what will drive us forward. It should be along the lines of:-

"Today NZ has 210 active cases which are derived from 4 new cases today and a reduction of 46 since yesterday"

And change all the graphics to show the active cases per region.

MoH has been doing this for some time. You will find the graph below at https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases#dhbs

That's the important number coupled with daily new cases and should act as a motivator. At the moment when we announce the new cases and a new total it's just more numbers and a slight increase on some other numbers which doesn't really do anything.

If we announce active cases and new cases everyone can get on board with that. Use it to motivate people because after all the whole aim is to drive that number to zero.

Hope I have explained that successfully. It's a simple change of emphasis which could do a lot to motivate.

The graphs you seem to want have been published on the Geekzone COVID-19: Data, analysis, research links & related discussion thread, for example this one

frednz

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#2466831 21-Apr-2020 09:26

frednz:

Perhaps the only way of completely locally eliminating or world-wide eradicating this particular virus is the use of a vaccine. The PM also said in today's statement:

"We believe that decisive action of going hard and going early, gave us the very best chance of stamping out the virus, and it has. We have done what very few other countries have been able to do, we have stopped a wave of devastation."

I agree, NZ has done really well and I'm pleased I'm living here and not, for example, in the UK. But, now, the PM has introduced another term "stamping out" the virus. I guess there's nothing wrong with this as long as people take note of the PM's other statement that "elimination doesn't mean zero cases, it means zero tolerance for cases".

Just an update on the above post about whether it's possible for NZ to eliminate or "stamp out" Covid-19 before a vaccine is available.

On “Seven Sharp” on TV1 on 20 April 2020, Professor Graham Le Gros, from the Malaghan Institute of Medical Research, was asked: “Can we stamp out Covid-19 without a vaccine?”. He replied:

“The short answer is no we cannot and the Prime Minister more or less admitted that. It’s a tricky little virus, it’s very hard to stamp out. It’s around the world it’s overseas, it’s always just sitting at our borders waiting to get in and even stamping it out is an impossible situation because it’s out there creeping around in the community staying silent right now, I’m afraid that’s the nature of this tricky little virus.”

Professor Le Gros also said that we really are stuck with having to live with this virus although he likes the words the PM used of “zero tolerance” rather than “zero cases”. He concluded that we need a vaccine because relying on lockdown will not solve the problem.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/seven-sharp/clips/how-close-are-we-to-stamping-out-covid-19-and-is-that-even-possible

MikeB4

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#2466838 21-Apr-2020 09:37

The number new cases reported and advised is important for several reasons. 1.They are people and they matter. 2. It shows the outbreak is still active and the risk of blowout is a real and present danger. 3. If they are not highlighted then the Muppets will decide it's all over and go and party. 4. These are people who have contracted an illness and face a lonely, painful death.

I know that low numbers takes away they excitement and drama to some but these numbers matter and matter a lot.

I also believe that the world has only seen the start of this so far, there is a long way to go and its going to be horrific. The complacency that early easing of restrictions risk means that second and third waves are inevitable.

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