2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2429007 28-Feb-2020 17:59

Fred99:

Well it's clearly completely out of control in Iran - but the extent of how bad the situation there is hasn't been known for long.

I'd hoped we'd be clear for longer too - but that's the luck of the draw. It's in at least 60 countries now - so it was inevitable we'd have cases.

The NZ dollar has taken a direct hit when this was announced. https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/103844/our-currency-takes-hit-rumours-covid-19-has-arrived-wholesale-swap-rates-sink-well

I wonder if the government are going to be looking at complete travel bans, as the source of it is coming through the airports. I had heard in some areas they are having to do tests for this in peoples cars, because many health centres don't have isolation areas, and they don't want people waiting in the waiting rooms where they may pass it on. NZ does tend to be a 'she'll be right', and an 'ambulance at the bottom of the cliff' country, rather than being proactive to prevent problems occurring. So I hope that they will be acting on the side of caution to reduce the risk to people in NZ getting this. Id do wonder if the WHO shouldn't have class this as a major problem , so countries introduced travel bans sooner, and there was a set standard that all countries should follow, to minimise the risk of it spreading between countries. I wonder if NZ will also do what they have done in China, and prevent a lot of internal travel. It is just a really bad time of the year in NZ as we head into winter.

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#2429021 28-Feb-2020 19:01

cshwone: The sheer magnitude of the internal restrictions imposed within China makes me doubt the accuracy of their reporting, particularly the mortality rate

Id wait while this spreads globally, then look at population, infections and deaths. NZ has allowed everyone to saunter in here, except Chinese nationals, but tourists from China are ok. My mates gf came back from Japan, all ok, straight back to work, and the gym, etc. You will probably find that some countries will all under report, as now its an ego thing, globally. Every Govt wants to be seen as "good".

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#2429023 28-Feb-2020 19:05

mattwnz:

But was it picked up because he was so ill that he needed hospitalization. It appears they have been in NZ for at least a few days. Anyone on that flight should probably be quarantined, as that was the process for those who were on the Wuhan flight, and those people hadn't necessarily been in intensive contact with anyone with the illness, whereas those people on this flight have been in contact with that person who has tested positive. I don't think self isolation for people on that flight is enough in this case.

I didn't think NZ would get it's first case this quickly, based in the precautions in place, so looks like they fell through the gap.

What precautions? IMO there are next to none. My workplace has a policy of if you came back from these countries or you have been in contact (all those with infections) you need to work from home for 14 days. That FAR exceeds NZ precautions. NZ precautions has been cross fingers and hope for the best, thats our Stage 1 "Keep It Out" policy

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#2429026 28-Feb-2020 19:08

mattwnz:

Fred99:

Well it's clearly completely out of control in Iran - but the extent of how bad the situation there is hasn't been known for long.

I'd hoped we'd be clear for longer too - but that's the luck of the draw. It's in at least 60 countries now - so it was inevitable we'd have cases.

The NZ dollar has taken a direct hit when this was announced. https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/103844/our-currency-takes-hit-rumours-covid-19-has-arrived-wholesale-swap-rates-sink-well

I wonder if the government are going to be looking at complete travel bans, as the source of it is coming through the airports. I had heard in some areas they are having to do tests for this in peoples cars, because many health centres don't have isolation areas, and they don't want people waiting in the waiting rooms where they may pass it on. NZ does tend to be a 'she'll be right', and an 'ambulance at the bottom of the cliff' country, rather than being proactive to prevent problems occurring. So I hope that they will be acting on the side of caution to reduce the risk to people in NZ getting this. Id do wonder if the WHO shouldn't have class this as a major problem , so countries introduced travel bans sooner, and there was a set standard that all countries should follow, to minimise the risk of it spreading between countries. I wonder if NZ will also do what they have done in China, and prevent a lot of internal travel. It is just a really bad time of the year in NZ as we head into winter.

Nailed it.

We are small, so stats wise, its in our favour. If we enacted more severe (but more prudent) restrictions, whatever Govt was in place would be seen as stupid. Over reacting, always goes back to the dollar.

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#2429027 28-Feb-2020 19:08

tdgeek:

What precautions? IMO there are next to none. My workplace has a policy of if you came back from these countries or you have been in contact (all those with infections) you need to work from home for 14 days. That FAR exceeds NZ precautions. NZ precautions has been cross fingers and hope for the best, thats our Stage 1 "Keep It Out" policy

That sounds like common sense. According to the news conference, the go are only contacting people within a few rows of the confirmed case, rather than all travelers on the plane. But they have already done analysis after SARS, that random seats on a plane outside of a few rows can also get it. I recall seeing this on a BBC piece about it?. I wonder what standards they are working to.

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#2429028 28-Feb-2020 19:14

tdgeek:

Nailed it.

We are small, so stats wise, its in our favour. If we enacted more severe (but more prudent) restrictions, whatever Govt was in place would be seen as stupid. Over reacting, always goes back to the dollar.

I am thinking back to the Swine flu, when it came in and cases grew, they weren't able to contain it, and they just gave up and let it spread. But this is significantly worse than that, so hope they aren't going to follow that approach, and they will start putting in travel restrictions within the country, and isolationg towns and cities. I think it comes down to how much is someone life worth, as they will have a good idea of the number of people that will be affected and will die as a result of it. Economic problems are going to occur no matter what, because this is a global problem. I don't think the Olympics will be going ahead now, as that is a just a big breeding ground for this sort of thing.

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#2429030 28-Feb-2020 19:23

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Nailed it.

We are small, so stats wise, its in our favour. If we enacted more severe (but more prudent) restrictions, whatever Govt was in place would be seen as stupid. Over reacting, always goes back to the dollar.

I am thinking back to the Swine flu, when it came in and cases grew, they weren't able to contain it, and they just gave up and let it spread. But this is significantly worse than that, so hope they aren't going to follow that approach, and they will start putting in travel restrictions within the country, and isolationg towns and cities. I think it comes down to how much is someone life worth, as they will have a good idea of the number of people that will be affected and will die as a result of it. Economic problems are going to occur no matter what, because this is a global problem. I don't think the Olympics will be going ahead now, as that is a just a big breeding ground for this sort of thing.

What REALLY winds me up is a mate. His gf came back from Japan, then they had a hit of cases. Her workplace doesn't care. he actually doesnt either as if some people dont do a self quarantine, "its pointless".

Be sensible, its not just YOU its all of us. This virus is such that if we can all bear some inconvenience, it will make a difference. It helps to put a roadblock that the virus cannot traverse. Humans being humans, it won't happen to me. Say most of us are in the safer demographic, we all have elders that we contact with.

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#2429034 28-Feb-2020 19:30

What concerns me is the two failed tests on the kiwi from Iran. The doctors suspected he had the virus so they tested him a third time. I now have no confidence on the results on all the other negative tests that have been carried out in NZ.

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#2429037 28-Feb-2020 19:32

It's not just elders at risk there are thousands of young/middle aged/elderly who are at risk due suppressed immune systems or disabled or chronically I'll.
Statistics mean squat, lives do. The economic cost falls way behind the lives of New Zealanders.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2429039 28-Feb-2020 19:40

tdgeek:

This virus is such that if we can all bear some inconvenience, it will make a difference. It helps to put a roadblock that the virus cannot traverse. Humans being humans, it won't happen to me. Say most of us are in the safer demographic, we all have elders that we contact with.

People are going to need help/support with that. If it's (likely IMO) needed that schools will need to be closed etc, then two parent households with both parents working to service the mortgage have a problem and will need help, from employers (if they can afford it - some will need support) or from government. If schools close - the kids won't be able to be sent to daycare.

There will also be a lot of casualised workers that simply won't be given hours. It'll go far beyond the tourism/hospitality sector, but for example in France, tourism is 8% of GDP. Only about 3% of tourists were from China, but their finance minister stated that they'd seen a 30-40% fall in tourist numbers even by a week ago. I'd be surprised if it isn't the same here - maybe insulated somewhat by distance where people on trips to NZ usually book well ahead, but eventually tourism will probably collapse here too. It has potential to get very very ugly.

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#2429042 28-Feb-2020 19:44

MikeB4: It's not just elders at risk there are thousands of young/middle aged/elderly who are at risk due suppressed immune systems or disabled or chronically I'll.
Statistics mean squat, lives do. The economic cost falls way behind the lives of New Zealanders.

Fully agree Mike, I thought of you when I posted, vulnerable, which includes elderly, but many others as well. Apologies.

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#2429044 28-Feb-2020 19:45

Apparently it's now in NZ. From Iran.

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#2429046 28-Feb-2020 19:48

debo:

What concerns me is the two failed tests on the kiwi from Iran. The doctors suspected he had the virus so they tested him a third time. I now have no confidence on the results on all the other negative tests that have been carried out in NZ.

This isn't new - false negatives because of sampling is typical for this disease. The infection is often deep in the lungs - it'll be a real problem getting samples from there if you need to test a lot of people - you need a trained surgeon to get in with a bronchoscope to take a sample. Swabs from the throat or nose - no problem - anybody could do it - then send the sample to a lab. Those "easy" samples tested negative with the NZ patient.

Hopefully there'll be a immunoglobulin test available very soon. That would mean a blood test should be able to confirm diagnosis quickly.

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#2429047 28-Feb-2020 19:48

Fred99:

tdgeek:

This virus is such that if we can all bear some inconvenience, it will make a difference. It helps to put a roadblock that the virus cannot traverse. Humans being humans, it won't happen to me. Say most of us are in the safer demographic, we all have elders that we contact with.

People are going to need help/support with that. If it's (likely IMO) needed that schools will need to be closed etc, then two parent households with both parents working to service the mortgage have a problem and will need help, from employers (if they can afford it - some will need support) or from government. If schools close - the kids won't be able to be sent to daycare.

There will also be a lot of casualised workers that simply won't be given hours. It'll go far beyond the tourism/hospitality sector, but for example in France, tourism is 8% of GDP. Only about 3% of tourists were from China, but their finance minister stated that they'd seen a 30-40% fall in tourist numbers even by a week ago. I'd be surprised if it isn't the same here - maybe insulated somewhat by distance where people on trips to NZ usually book well ahead, but eventually tourism will probably collapse here too. It has potential to get very very ugly.

100%. My employer, who I wont name, will be a major player with support. Others will too. Some occupations wont have that available, and the Govt, should it get big will need to step up. Not easy, but that does need to be the backstop. Im just cringing about the media boom that will occur. I just want real facts, and direction, not the media frenzy that will happen.