2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2476420 4-May-2020 15:41

Handle9:

No it's nonsense because it's nonsense. Anyone who thinks that this is digital is either obtuse or simple.

There is massive, long term societal damage being done by the lockdown. There are huge health risks due to the virus. They have to be balanced. It is pretty clear that there was no need to stay in Level 4 for any more time but if it was just eradicate the virus then the country would still be in level 4.

Ok, I can now see what you are being nasty and name calling. I went back to my full post. I said there are two camps. Essentially all health and all economy. I didnt mean thats the way I think it should be, I meant (poor grammar) that is what is out there.

No, its not digital, there is a point in between both extremes (which is a soundbite I used in another post about the same thing), where there is balance. But when I read articles, posts, many of them are side A or side B, which was my point.

Apologies for the grammar

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#2476421 4-May-2020 15:43

Instead of faffing about with returning to level 4 or 3.5 or anything else like that if people ignore the rules, why not just actually enforce the rules with a zero tolerance approach? No more warnings and any transgression, however slight, immediately gets stomped on with fines, home detention (with monitoring bands), supervised isolation, even jail. Some people really are thick and just need to have the message hammered home. This is the level, here are the rules, these are the penalties. Put out a massive police presence, round up a few kids who think it doesn't apply to them, and compliance will go up pretty quickly.

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tdgeek

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#2476423 4-May-2020 15:46

Paul1977:

tdgeek:

I thought I was the optimistic one here! It's L0 for the flouters and the socialisers now. When there was a few as in L4 that was manageable, I feel it's way up on that now. We had better hope that none of the handful of cases we get every day have never stepped foot outside.

Doesn't worry me if we go to L2, its L2 or less any way for many, that will grow. I will be laying low

You are the optimistic one. I've been pretty pessimistic as I thought we were coming out of Level 4 too early, but that was when I thought the goal of elimination actually meant 0 cases in NZ.

It became clear by the number of reported cases that after the first 3 weeks of Level 4 that the rule breaking was rapidly rising (still a small minority though). Just as we have seen over the past week a small minority of people flouting the Level 3 rules.

Being a realist, I think the Level 3 restrictions are just too much for a lot of people after 5 weeks at Level 4 (Level 3 is meant to be Level 4 but with a few more people able to go to work - so for most not that different).

I just think with the numbers we are seeing now we need to find a better balance. Rules that will dramatically slow the spread and keep it well under R0 1, but not so strict that people feel oppressed and unable to live their lives.

Level 4 was absolutely necessary, but those sorts of restrictions will only be tolerated for so long.

If you tell people they can't do 9 out of 10 things they would normally do, many will just give up and do them all anyway. If you say they can't do 2 things, but there are 2 things they can do as normal, plus another 6 things they can do within reasonable guidelines; you will get higher overall compliance.

I think it will be a long time before most people will be resorting to the pre-covid way of living. Handshakes will be a thing of the past, as will hugging and kissing hello and goodbye. People will stand further apart while conversing. All of these things give me hope that we won't see the another spike of the sort you'd get with pre-covid everyday behaviour.

I agree with what you say. My concern is that the level of non compliance now is higher. The Level is lower, so thats a double effect. Double edged sword. Compounding. While there is much less chance of a community infection, if there was, its non traceable if it involved a flouter/socialiser. Then we go back to another 13 cases in Whanganui, another 19 cases in Whanganui. Flouters are non traceable

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#2476425 4-May-2020 15:49

Rikkitic:

Instead of faffing about with returning to level 4 or 3.5 or anything else like that if people ignore the rules, why not just actually enforce the rules with a zero tolerance approach? No more warnings and any transgression, however slight, immediately gets stomped on with fines, home detention (with monitoring bands), supervised isolation, even jail. Some people really are thick and just need to have the message hammered home. This is the level, here are the rules, these are the penalties. Put out a massive police presence, round up a few kids who think it doesn't apply to them, and compliance will go up pretty quickly.

Yep. The rules are there. I could not care less about the rules, its the rules that are being enacted by the people that matter, and that ranges from Level 3 to Level 0. Take a 24 second drive last weekend and see

Geektastic

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#2476488 4-May-2020 16:31

Rikkitic:

Instead of faffing about with returning to level 4 or 3.5 or anything else like that if people ignore the rules, why not just actually enforce the rules with a zero tolerance approach? No more warnings and any transgression, however slight, immediately gets stomped on with fines, home detention (with monitoring bands), supervised isolation, even jail. Some people really are thick and just need to have the message hammered home. This is the level, here are the rules, these are the penalties. Put out a massive police presence, round up a few kids who think it doesn't apply to them, and compliance will go up pretty quickly.

This generally applies to all rules. For example, using phones when driving, jumping red lights and so on.

Punishment is too lenient if it is administered at all. The slackness that engenders is like a societal malaise that permeates all manner of things.

mattwnz

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#2476512 4-May-2020 16:57

Handle9:

There is massive, long term societal damage being done by the lockdown. There are huge health risks due to the virus. They have to be balanced. It is pretty clear that there was no need to stay in Level 4 for any more time but if it was just eradicate the virus then the country would still be in level 4.

We also need to look at the long term effects in all areas if we don't eliminate it due to relaxing things too quickly, and we have to live between levels 1-4 for 2 years or more. What will NZ be like in a years time, if we are living with the virus still and in L1-4, and haven't eliminated it from the shores, compared to a shorter period of more intensive lockdown without any domestic restrictions? We have been given the chance of a mulligan, and rolling back time, with what we have achieved with level 4, with getting cases down to nearly zero. We don't want to repeat rising cases again and repeat history. We also need to remember the a the numbers today are actually the effect of level 4, and not level 3, due to the long incubation period of the virus, which for most people seems to be about a week delay.

Eradication is globally getting cases down to zero, so there are no new cases on earth. This is impossible until a vaccine, due to countries reacting to late and some allowing it to spread to try and get herd immunity. Elimination is NZ getting it's cases down to zero, if zero is the elimination definition they are using, which I believe it is. eg then stamp it out and trace any rogue cases that appear and ring fence contacts. https://vaccine-safety-training.org/elements/articles/eradication-difference.html
Elimination is entirely possible, as per what the experts have said. Several top ones I have heard said NZ needed 6-8 weeks of L4 to ensure elimination. 5 weeks therefore relies on level 3 being very strict if we want to ensure elimination, and as the DG said today, it won't be until the end of this week when we should discover any undetected cases in the community. I really hope there aren't.

Ge0rge

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#2476517 4-May-2020 17:07

"Weve done it! Zero cases of Covid-19 reported in NZ today!" - Radio preview of TV3 news headlines at 1800 tonight.

Now, tell me again why you are surprised people aren't taking lvl3 as seriously as they should be?

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neb

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#2476518 4-May-2020 17:09

Ge0rge: "Weve done it! Zero cases of Covid-19 reported in NZ today!"

That'll be the same people who will be saying "We've done it! It rained briefly in Auckland today, the water crisis is over!".

Ge0rge

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#2476521 4-May-2020 17:18

neb:
Ge0rge: "Weve done it! Zero cases of Covid-19 reported in NZ today!"

We've done it! It rained briefly in Auckland today, the water crisis is over!

I'm afraid if you're attempting to imply that I somehow believe TV3's headline, and thus educate me with your link, you've completely missed the point of my post.

neb

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#2476526 4-May-2020 17:31

Ge0rge: I'm afraid if you're attempting to imply that I somehow believe TV3's headline, and thus educate me with your link, you've completely missed the point of my post.

No, I'm agreeing with it, reinforcing what you're saying by drawing an analogy with the water crisis.

Ge0rge

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#2476529 4-May-2020 17:36

neb:
Ge0rge: I'm afraid if you're attempting to imply that I somehow believe TV3's headline, and thus educate me with your link, you've completely missed the point of my post.

No, I'm agreeing with it, reinforcing what you're saying by drawing an analogy with the water crisis.

Apologies, the way you quoted my message made it look like it was my statement.

neb

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#2476530 4-May-2020 17:40

Ge0rge: Apologies, the way you quoted my message made it look like it was my statement.

Sure, and I realised on re-reading that it's rather open to misinterpretation. Let me see if I can come up with a re-wording...

mattwnz

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#2476534 4-May-2020 17:49

neb:
Ge0rge: "Weve done it! Zero cases of Covid-19 reported in NZ today!"
That'll be the same people who will be saying "We've done it! It rained briefly in Auckland today, the water crisis is over!".

Ironic that the number one thing to fight this, is people washing their hands! How can they be having yet another water crisis? Don't they now have a pipeline supplying water to prevent this from happening? https://www.watercare.co.nz/Water-and-wastewater/Where-your-water-comes-from/Rivers

Surely they can just increase the amount they take, especially as we are in a National Emergency situation? This water crisis has got very little coverage.

neb

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#2476569 4-May-2020 18:25

mattwnz:
Ironic that the number one thing to fight this, is people washing their hands! How can they be having yet another water crisis? Don't they now have a pipeline supplying water to prevent this from happening? https://www.watercare.co.nz/Water-and-wastewater/Where-your-water-comes-from/Rivers

Complete speculation, but my guess would be they don't have the ability to process/purify and move much more water than they're doing already.

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#2476572 4-May-2020 18:43

tdgeek:

I agree with what you say. My concern is that the level of non compliance now is higher. The Level is lower, so thats a double effect. Double edged sword. Compounding. While there is much less chance of a community infection, if there was, its non traceable if it involved a flouter/socialiser. Then we go back to another 13 cases in Whanganui, another 19 cases in Whanganui. Flouters are non traceable

I agree, however if people are going to flout the rules in a 2 week Level 3, they are going to flout them in a 4 week Level 3 as well (if not more so).

If they extend Level 3 on the basis of flouters, they need to also introduce very strict penalties for non-compliance. Otherwise we'll be in Level 3 forever.

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