2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2489089 22-May-2020 08:49

dejadeadnz:

People gallivanting around the world during an active pandemic act all surprised when they can't re-enter, episode 13467888

I don't doubt that there are edge cases genuinely worthy of some sympathy and even exemptions but just from these some of these people's own-submitted stories alone, in many cases I have zero sympathy. Why should lots of others be put at risk just to do you a favour, especially after all the sacrifices already made?

I think "gallivanting" is prejudicial, judgmental and generally inaccurate... many of these people have returned home to visit families, and in the chaos of border closures and flight cancellations and fare increases in early March were unable to get back to NZ.

However, I do think that if you're actually intending to live in NZ (or any other country) then you ought to become a citizen or at least a Permanent Resident. If you think that becoming a citizen/PR isn't worth the effort (or even a disadvantage), then I question your commitment to NZ; it seems you were only here for the lifestyle or the money, gaining benefits that citizens have paid for, with no investment yourself. So, conversely, NZ has no responsibility to help you, and I too have limited sympathy for work visa holders who are stuck outside NZ. You made your bed...

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#2489103 22-May-2020 09:44

frankv:
Fred99: There's no evolutionary pressure for it to become less severe because it's not lethal enough initially (~98-99% survive)

I think you're wrong there. From the (anthropomorphic) virus's point of view, it doesn't want to kill its host, it wants the host to go on spreading the virus as much as possible. So it wants to be less lethal. Hence the common cold virus is much more successful than covid-19, only killing a few hosts who have other risk factors. So the human population lives with the virus (in both senses) and practically speaking doesn't even try to wipe it out.

Maybe. I should have said "not much" pressure. A virus doesn't "care" if it kills it's host once it's spread. If it's mutated to have a longer period where the host could pass on the infection - this would give it an advantage - so mutating to become more easily transmitted could be in slow steps but relatively quickly. I can't see why it would "need" to simultaneously become less severe in small steps - that's not going to change human behaviour to try to stop it.

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#2489287 22-May-2020 10:46

frankv:

dejadeadnz:

People gallivanting around the world during an active pandemic act all surprised when they can't re-enter, episode 13467888

I don't doubt that there are edge cases genuinely worthy of some sympathy and even exemptions but just from these some of these people's own-submitted stories alone, in many cases I have zero sympathy. Why should lots of others be put at risk just to do you a favour, especially after all the sacrifices already made?

I think "gallivanting" is prejudicial, judgmental and generally inaccurate... many of these people have returned home to visit families, and in the chaos of border closures and flight cancellations and fare increases in early March were unable to get back to NZ.

However, I do think that if you're actually intending to live in NZ (or any other country) then you ought to become a citizen or at least a Permanent Resident. If you think that becoming a citizen/PR isn't worth the effort (or even a disadvantage), then I question your commitment to NZ; it seems you were only here for the lifestyle or the money, gaining benefits that citizens have paid for, with no investment yourself. So, conversely, NZ has no responsibility to help you, and I too have limited sympathy for work visa holders who are stuck outside NZ. You made your bed...

It doesn't sound like either of you have gone through the process of trying to gain Permanent Residency. For some it is relatively straightforward if you have the qualifications, a high enough paying job and are the right age.

For many others, the first stage in the journey is to get a work visa. That's the start of a lengthy process to eventually get PR. Everyone on a Work Visa or who has PR pays New Zealand Tax.

So don't be so quick to pre-judge or attribute false facts to their commitment to this country.

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#2489758 22-May-2020 18:03

From the Reddit forum Because sometimes everything is just awful

dejadeadnz

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#2489860 22-May-2020 22:13

cshwone:

So don't be so quick to pre-judge or attribute false facts to their commitment to this country.

Maybe you can also be, err, not so quick to attribute another poster's views to me? It's just simple reading and basic courtesy. I have raised no questions around those people's commitment or otherwise to the country -- in fact, from my POV, it's irrelevant. My point is this and simply this: deliberately choosing to travel during an active and near-worldwide pandemic is utterly irresponsible and displays a dreadful lack of judgement and concern for their own well-being and the well-being of the community to which they intended to return in all but the absolute edge cases. These people played Russian Roulette and lost. They get no sympathy from me.

This is the 21st century -- almost everyone in a first world country has an almost unlimited supply of news. Certainly anyone who can afford to travel overseas does.

Fred99

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#2489900 23-May-2020 07:48

dejadeadnz:

This is the 21st century -- almost everyone in a first world country has an almost unlimited supply of news.

True - but with extremely variable accuracy, plenty of deliberately misleading politicised propaganda, and serious mistakes from official sources.

WHO were very slow declaring C-19 a global pandemic and were advising against closing borders, certain global leaders were stating that there wasn't a problem and the disease would just "go away" - and if it didn't then "who cares" as it was "only the flu".

Plenty of people would have had tickets booked and paid for before it became apparent to most that there really was a problem, no chance of refund, and an industry telling them not to worry - the risk is low, "it'll all be OK". Late Feb - early March before the proverbial really hit the fan - it may seem like forever but that was only 10 weeks ago.

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#2489979 23-May-2020 11:05

It looks like the police are applying a practical commonsense approach to church services.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/covid-19-police-give-green-light-large-church-services-contradicting-pms-stance

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#2490131 23-May-2020 17:30

Washington Post: Study estimates 24 US states still have uncontrolled coronavirus spread

The coronavirus may still be spreading at epidemic rates in 24 states, particularly in the South and Midwest, according to new research that highlights the risk of a second wave of infections in places that reopen too quickly or without sufficient precautions.

Researchers at Imperial College London created a model that incorporates cellphone data showing that people sharply reduced their movements after stay-at-home orders were broadly imposed in March. With restrictions now easing and mobility increasing with the approach of Memorial Day and the unofficial start of summer, the researchers developed an estimate of viral spread as of May 17.

...Some states have had little viral spread or “crushed the curve” to a great degree and have some wiggle room to reopen their economies without generating a new epidemic-level surge in cases. Others are nowhere near containing the virus.

The model ... shows that in the majority of states, a second wave looms if people abandon efforts to mitigate the viral spread.

“There’s evidence that the U.S. is not under control, as an entire country,” said Samir Bhatt, a senior lecturer in geostatistics at Imperial College.

The model shows potentially ominous scenarios if people move around as they did previously and do so without taking precautions. In California and Florida, the death rate could spike to roughly 1,000 a day by July without efforts to mitigate the spread, according to the report.

Other models released in recent days captured a similarly mixed picture. The PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia used county-level forecasts that found much of the country was in decent shape for reopening, but worrisome areas remain, including Houston, Dallas, South Florida and Alabama.

On this Memorial Day weekend, some people will visit areas that may not have had much exposure to the virus, said David Rubin, director of PolicyLab.

...The Imperial College researchers estimated the virus’s reproduction number, known as R0, or R naught. This is the average number of infections generated by each infected person in a vulnerable population. The researchers found the reproduction number has dropped below 1 in the District and 26 states. In those places, as of May 17, the epidemic was waning.

In 24 states, however, the model shows a reproduction number over 1.

..This has become a geographically complex pandemic, one that will evolve, especially as people increase their movements in coming weeks. Laws and health regulations vary from state to state, county to county and city to city. There are communities where wearing facial coverings is culturally the norm, while in other places it is rejected on grounds of personal liberty or as refutation of the consensus view of the hazards posed by the virus.

Political leaders have traded executive orders for appeals to individual responsibility and judgment. Even as they touted reopening water parks and beaches, some governors told their citizens not to enjoy their new freedoms too much.

...In a hotspot in western Iowa, “families need to make their own decisions,” said Matthew A. Ung, chair of Woodbury County’s board of supervisors. “You don’t have to act one way or another because of what the government says,” he said. “Look out for you and your family.”

...In Mississippi, where the Imperial College model predicts infections are on the rise, Gov. Tate Reeves (R) said he was ready to reopen the last few businesses that remain closed in the state — including racetracks and water parks.

“We will be out of the business of closing down anybody, I hope,” Reeves said.

...In a news conference Thursday, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) defended her decision to reopen concert venues, movie theaters and other businesses despite rising case numbers.

“We cannot sustain a delayed way of life as we search for a vaccine,” she said. “Having a life means having a livelihood, too.”

That said, she promised that “if we start going in the wrong direction, we reserve the right to come back in and reverse.”

...Experts in Tennessee are also concerned about people from other states beginning to flock to Nashville and Memphis on summer vacations.

...Local jurisdictions in Texas do not have the authority to issue more stringent restrictions than the state, which began aggressively reopening this month.

...Rebecca Fischer, an epidemiologist at Texas A&M University and part of a team partnering with the governor’s office, said the daily caseload was fluctuating, but “it looks like we’re not cresting a peak and coming down the other side.”

A week ago, Texas reported a single-day high in new cases as well as deaths — about 14 days after the beginning of the state’s phased reopening. The state has now reported more than 52,000 cases and nearly 1,500 deaths.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/study-estimates-24-states-still-have-uncontrolled-coronavirus-spread/2020/05/22/d3032470-9c43-11ea-ac72-3841fcc9b35f_story.html

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#2490141 23-May-2020 18:23

can someone with access give us the gist of this article?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12333986

Batman

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#2490167 23-May-2020 19:34

According to worldmeters, Brazil as of yesterday has the 2nd highest number of Covid cases :(

ANglEAUT

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#2490171 23-May-2020 19:37

Batman: can someone with access give us the gist of this article? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12333986

I don't have access to the article, but I do have access to The Spinoff.

10.20am: How close did we come to disaster?

Just how narrowly the country avoided disaster in the early days of Covid-19 has been highlighted by Herald investigative reporter Matt Nippert in his second epic long read in as many weekends. Today’s story, again based largely on the thousands of pages of government documents released earlier this month, reveals that at the start of lockdown New Zealand only had enough test kits to last six days. “The just-in-time deliveries of scarce swabs made while airfreight markets were collapsing are nothing short of miraculous,” Nippert tweeted.

If you feel as though last week I didn't give you enough dramatic Covid tension in 3500-word doses, I've doubled the dose and published Part 2 of my Pandemic Papers series today. https://t.co/Mr2FMDX0bU

— Matt Nippert (@MattNippert) May 22, 2020

Please keep this GZ community vibrant by contributing in a constructive & respectful manner.

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neb

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#2490178 23-May-2020 19:48

Batman:
According to worldmeters, Brazil as of yesterday has the 2nd highest number of Covid cases :(

Just checked and Russia just weighed in with their 10K-per-day new cases so it'll be a neck-and-neck race for awhile. However what's terrifying with Brazil is their testing rate, they're doing almost no testing but have the second-highest-equal number of cases in the world. Russia is doing ten times the testing to get their figures.

Interesting news from elsewhere, up to half of all Twitter accounts pushing for reopening the US are bots. Theory: Russia wants to make sure the US has a second, and third, and forth wave to ensure that Russia doesn't end up in the #1 infections position.

neb

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#2490182 23-May-2020 19:59

ANglEAUT:
Today’s story, again based largely on the thousands of pages of government documents released earlier this month, reveals that at the start of lockdown New Zealand only had enough test kits to last six days. “The just-in-time deliveries of scarce swabs made while airfreight markets were collapsing are nothing short of miraculous,” Nippert tweeted.

I don't have access to the story either but it sounds like its sensationalising something that may not be that exceptional. In particular, "just-in-time delivery" is a deliberate inventory management strategy in many industries. If Covid19 had been a fizzle then this miracle wouldn't even have made the news. People judge luckiness based on how close they are to a catastrophe: It's better to be at a safe distance and survive, but it's luckier to be close up and survive.

Look at the opposite reports coming from some parts of the US, "we prepared for a disaster and now we have empty hospital beds". There's always some story to be extracted from it no matter which way things go.

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#2490194 23-May-2020 20:50

neb:
Batman:
According to worldmeters, Brazil as of yesterday has the 2nd highest number of Covid cases :(

However what's terrifying with Brazil is their testing rate, they're doing almost no testing but have the second-highest-equal number of cases in the world. Russia is doing ten times the testing to get their figures.

I don't know that testing rates are all that relevant when you're in uncontrolled growth.

Russia's testing rate is 57,000/million population, I.e. about 6%. If it was random, it would find 6% of infections. But about 10% of infections result in hospitalization, and perhaps 50%?? of cases are symptomatic. So, without testing you find 50% of cases. Russia's 6% test rate, if random, will find 6% of asymptomatic cases, I.e. another 3% of all cases. Targeted testing aimed at high risk individuals will find a much higher percentage. So contact tracing is crucial to the effectiveness of testing. And that depends on limiting interactions.

And both countries have Trumpesque presidents who are pretending that the disease doesn't exist.

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#2490198 23-May-2020 21:15

Technofreak:
It looks like the police are applying a practical commonsense approach to church services.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/covid-19-police-give-green-light-large-church-services-contradicting-pms-stance

Someone told me they went to a bar Friday night. Contact details taken at door, limited to 100 inside.

After that though there was no social distancing, all 100 people were going closer to others then 2 metres apart.

I’m not religious but this looks like way more interacting then a church service.

Miles well be level one already.

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