2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2490916 25-May-2020 10:16

floydbloke:
frankv:

...

But we did (and do) gamble with human lives. The only difference is that we put a higher value on human lives than some other countries. ...

A reasonably well informed and educated gamble I'd suggest. Studied the form and weighed up the odds.

A comparatively low number of 'direct' deaths from the virus. Unfortunately I don't think we'll ever be able to quantify the indirect impact on mental well-being and subsequent consequences of the lock-down. I personally know of two deaths (fortunately for me not close associates) that would arguably not have occurred if the pandemic had not triggered the requirement to lock down.

This. You give some you take some. You win some you lose some. You save some lives from virus you lose some lives to other things. I'm very sorry to hear of your (distant) losses.

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#2490953 25-May-2020 11:14

Batman:
msukiwi:Well the Chinese Consulate in Christchurch is as busy as normal (Pre-Covid-19) this morning.

I'm not sure if the significance of that? They may just be there for free food /buy stamps for example?

By the look of it (Paperwork in hand)- normal Visa Office stuff.

freitasm

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#2490970 25-May-2020 11:53

Press release:

Further support for New Zealanders affected by 1-in-100 year global economic shock
12-week payment will support people searching for new work or retraining
Work programme on employment insurance to support workers and businesses
The Government today announced a new temporary payment to support New Zealanders who lose their jobs due to the global COVID-19 pandemic to adjust and find new employment or retrain.

A new COVID Income Relief Payment is being introduced, alongside a wider work programme on possible future employment insurance as we rebuild our economy in a way that supports workers and businesses together.

The payment will be available for 12 weeks from 8 June for anyone who has lost their job due to the impact of COVID-19 since March 1. It will pay $490 a week to those who lost full-time work and $250 for part-time. The payment will not be taxed.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson said the payment acknowledges that the global economy is facing a 1-in-100 year recession, which is impacting on New Zealand, and supports the Governments priority of protecting jobs where possible and supporting workers back into jobs where necessary.

“The Government’s priority is making sure people are in work and able to find new work if their job has been impacted by COVID. That’s why we made a $1.6 billion investment in the Budget to help people retrain. The Budget also invested to create practical jobs for New Zealanders through environmental work, construction and infrastructure. This payment will help Kiwis as they make these transitions.

“We’ve always acknowledged that we won’t be able to save every job or every business and we have not hidden the fact that this is a global economic crisis and things are likely to get worse. But the Government is investing to cushion the blow on households and businesses to make sure we’re in the best position to respond, recover and rebuild,” Grant Robertson said.

The scheme announced today is very similar to the Job Loss Cover payment introduced by the previous Government during the Canterbury earthquakes, and has a number of similarities to the ReStart package for workers who lost their jobs in the Global Financial Crisis.

“We know these schemes reduced the impact on people who lost their jobs due to those shocks. They show how important it is for people to have a safety net to support themselves and their families as they look for new work or retrain,” Grant Robertson said.

Grant Robertson confirmed that work is underway on the possibility of a more permanent unemployment insurance scheme in New Zealand. The Future of Work Ministers group has commissioned the work following a request from Business New Zealand and the Council of Trade Unions.

“As we move from the respond and recover phases of our COVID response, and towards rebuilding the economy, we have an opportunity to reset some of the foundations of the safety net for working New Zealanders.

“Around the world there are many examples of countries that created strong systems to cushion the blow of job loss through both income protection and retraining. These schemes ensure workers don’t suffer large income drops if they’re made redundant through no fault of their own, and save on redundancy costs for businesses going through restructuring.”

Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni said today’s announcement of extra support for those hit hard by redundancy will help cushion the blow for people who are looking for work, or taking the time to retrain.

“New Zealand is in a better position than many because we went hard and early to put support in place through the wage subsidy. Internationally countries are facing increased unemployment due to COVID-19 and New Zealand is not immune. As a response to this MSD will not only be delivering the COVID-19 income relief payment but have significantly bolstered employment support."

People with partners who are still working may be eligible for this payment, as long as their partner is earning under $2000 per week.

Receipt of the payment comes with expectations from the Government, and responsibilities. People who receive the COVID payment will be required to:

Be available for, and actively seeking, suitable work opportunities while they receive the payment
Take appropriate steps towards gaining new employment; and
Identify and take opportunities for employment, re-deployment and training.
Students who have lost part-time work as a result of COVID-19 may also be eligible for the part-time rate.

The 12-week scheme is forecast to cost about $570 million. This incorporates $1.2 billion of payments offset by $635 million of saved benefit payments, with small administrative costs. This fits with the Government’s intention for COVID response spending to be targeted, temporary and timely. It will be funded from the COVID Response and Recovery Fund.

“New Zealand is in a good position to use the Government’s strong balance sheet to invest to create jobs and support the private sector as we cushion the blow of COVID-19 on households and businesses,” Grant Robertson said.

“Last week, international credit ratings agency Moody’s reaffirmed our world-leading Aaa rating. Moody’s said the investments made in the Budget were affordable, and that New Zealand would continue to have some of the lowest debt and interest costs in the developed world due to our careful management of the Government books.

“We went hard and early with support to cushion the blow of COVID-19 on workers and the economy, through the wage subsidy, business tax refunds and interest-free loans for small businesses. Now we’re taking the next step in our plan to respond, recover and rebuild the economy,” Grant Robertson said.

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#2490995 25-May-2020 12:35

msukiwi:

By the look of it (Paperwork in hand)- normal Visa Office stuff.

They did put a full-page ad in the Chch Press this morning. It's certainly provoked some anti-Chinese comments on social media. Problem is that much of what they said seems quite understandable defence against some outrageous CT and misinformation about China's role in the emergence of the virus, their response etc. They also clearly got under the skin of some people by pledging support (with WHO) for impoverished nations which given the expectation that such support won't come without "conditions" is understandable - but where are the "good guys" when that support is needed. Bill Gates plus who else?
So many elephants in the room, it's such a mess.

neb

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#2491012 25-May-2020 13:10

Fred99:
It also bought time - much has been learned here and o'seas about C-19 epidemiology since March.

It's interesting, and in some cases depressing, to see where the lessons are coming from:

How to do it: Vietnam.

How to do it with minimal resources: Ghana.

How to do it in a dysfunctional country: Bulgaria

How not to do herd immunity: UK

How not to do lockdowns: Sweden

How not to do anything: USA

neb

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#2491015 25-May-2020 13:12

floydbloke:
A comparatively low number of 'direct' deaths from the virus. Unfortunately I don't think we'll ever be able to quantify the indirect impact on mental well-being and subsequent consequences of the lock-down.

We do have some initial data: In Japan, suicide rates are way down due to the lockdown due to less work-related stress. In the US road fatalities are way down in the states that went to full lockdown. We'll just have to wait for data to become available.

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#2491038 25-May-2020 13:30

The Swedish establishment keeps digging

I find it unbelievable that their state epidemiologist can in good conscience keep declaring that a more stringent lockdown would have made no difference. The results are well and truly in: it can no longer be reasonably argued that more stringent lockdowns and social distancing strongly correlates with much lower rates of death and critical illnesses. Frankly, I would actually argue that the link is basically beyond dispute causal.

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frankv

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#2491055 25-May-2020 14:03

neb: How not to do anything: USA

The country as a whole didn't do much, but that's not unreasonable given the geographic spread. Why should Alaska or Hawaii lock down if there's covid-19 in New York?

Many States did go into full lockdown, and most had/have some kind of spread-limiting measures.

However, the US labour system is a disaster on the same scale as their health system, as is their social welfare system, so this disease has turned into an economic disaster as well. Most employees have no sick pay, and 2 weeks (or less) paid annual leave, and practically no access to unemployment benefits. Their retirement savings are invested in the Stock Market, which is entirely based on confidence. So, 2 weeks into lockdown, everyone's leave is used up and they're no longer getting paid, maybe not even employed. A couple of weeks later, and their "rainy day" cash is gone. Retirement, however far away that is, is looking bleak to impossible. Suddenly there's fertile ground for *needing* the country to be open, citing a "Constitutional Right" to go back to normal, self-delusions that it's just like the flu, and prepping for doomsday. Public health decisions have turned into a political circus. And of course, their leader is only good at dividing, and incapable of seeing beyond November.

tdgeek

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#2491144 25-May-2020 16:02

Level 2 update about to start, video

freitasm

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#2491146 25-May-2020 16:09

From 12 noon this Friday gatherings can be up to 100 people.

freitasm

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#2491147 25-May-2020 16:10

Cabinet will check-in again on the current settings on the 8th June. On the 22nd June the Cabinet will consider the move to Alert Level 1.

wellygary

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#2491179 25-May-2020 16:34

freitasm:

From 12 noon this Friday gatherings can be up to 100 people.

I mean, seriously , we needed a whole press conference for just that....

What about the huge elephant in the room that is Social distancing on Public transport,...

If you want people to go back to shops (and offices) and go out and buy stuff they have to get there, and unless you want them all the drive..... they need to take the train and bus...,..

Unless there is a whole lot of COVID out there undetected, its becoming more and more likely that NZ could be in a situation in 2 weeks where we have no local active cases, and that is certainly likely to apply by June 22...

mattwnz

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#2491181 25-May-2020 16:35

I really see very little difference between level 1 and 2. Gathering limits seems to be the main one. But IMO when we still have active cases in NZ that aren't quarantined, we need to be cautious.

mattwnz

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#2491182 25-May-2020 16:39

wellygary:

Unless there is a whole lot of COVID out there undetected, its becoming more and more likely that NZ could be in a situation in 2 weeks where we have no local active cases, and that is certainly likely to apply by June 22...

Anyone returning to NZ could still be an active case, so I don't think we will ever get down to zero active cases that aren't at least in quarantine. The quarantining does seem to be working, as it is both catching cases, and those people are then being isolated and monitored properly. None of this self isolation rubbish. Also some active cases can potentially take several months to recover, so if there was a new case last week, then that adds to the period where we still have active cases. Not unless we start to quarantine all active cases to ring fence them,and prevent any risk of them infecting the community / people in their household.

wellygary

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#2491188 25-May-2020 16:51

mattwnz:

wellygary:

Unless there is a whole lot of COVID out there undetected, its becoming more and more likely that NZ could be in a situation in 2 weeks where we have no local active cases, and that is certainly likely to apply by June 22...

Anyone returning to NZ could still be an active case, so I don't think we will ever get down to zero active cases that aren't at least in quarantine. The quarantining does seem to be working, as it is both catching cases, and those people are then being isolated and monitored properly. None of this self isolation rubbish. Also some active cases can potentially take several months to recover, so if there was a new case last week, then that adds to the period where we still have active cases. Not unless we start to quarantine all active cases to ring fence them,and prevent any risk of them infecting the community / people in their household.

That's why I specifically used the term "Local active cases" which are those excluding quarantined arrivals,

But yes, as you say there will always be new actives arriving from offshore, but that's what the 14 quarantine is for...

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