2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2508932 20-Jun-2020 20:23

On2or3wheels:

Yeah, and all the members of the flight were in quarrantine as if they had Covid, so it's not quite the drama you're making out.

Nope. They should have been in isolation - but it's become increasingly apparent that in some cases this was a farce - the testing wasn't carried out as it was supposed to be, and there wasn't full isolation between the arrivals, nor between the arrivals and people working in the hotels.

So yes - it is a "drama".

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#2508934 20-Jun-2020 20:30

Fred99:

surfisup1000:

Todays 2 new cases were detected on the 12th day of quarantine right?

Doesn't that mean the 2 week clock resets on everyone they were quarantined with?

I don't understand either as to why their covid status wasn't detected in an earlier test. Did they pickup the virus while in quarantine?

Median incubation period from time of infection to onset of symptoms is ~ 5 days, most cases aren't infectious after 12 days from onset of symptoms, one test has approx 25% chance of being false-negative.

So 5 days plus 12 is 17 - longer than the 14 day quarantine period. So I don't think we're going to stop this at the border even if we follow the procedure we should have been doing. There are going to be "outliers" who get through. If we're increasing the numbers allowed to return, and the chance of people returning being infected is growing at the rate it probably truly is (ie not WHO or various country's "official" stats) - then we're doomed. We delayed the inevitable for a couple of months only.

No I don't think we're "doomed"!, many countries that have 10 fold proportionality the number of cases NZ had are doing ok e.g. Germany, France, Spain etc and they are now managing (despite high death tolls). Once more cases are detected at the NZ border or even in the NZ community the govt will double down even more just as they have as a result of Tues revelations.

Yes I agree its inevitable unless NZ puts in place appropriate controls to maintain elimination. Controls to maintain elimination one would think would be a lot stronger than ones for suppression. I am not yet convinced even the latest double down is enough to maintain elimination. Time will tell!

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#2508940 20-Jun-2020 20:43

xlinknz:

No I don't think we're "doomed"!

Well by doomed I mean to mitigate spread - to keep it manageable - we'll have to lock-down again. It'll still kill a lot of people - and maim many others.

I am not yet convinced even the latest double down is enough to maintain elimination. Time will tell!

I agree. The sad part about this is that now we're only testing very few in the community, when "time tells" it's going to be too late.

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#2508969 20-Jun-2020 22:15

Hmmmm. Source.

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#2508988 20-Jun-2020 22:57

maybe they are older

DS248

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#2508989 20-Jun-2020 23:04

Guess someone in ONS had a bit of time to spare!

That aside, Figure 4 presumably more relevant?

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#2508990 20-Jun-2020 23:09

Pretty meaningless . For example, what was the population breakdown in areas where clusters or concentrations of cases occurred? Etc, etc ...

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#2508994 20-Jun-2020 23:58

Fred99:

Not detecting any cases for 22 (?) consecutive days IMO seems very dodgy - especially given the incredibly stupid lack of testing.

...

Maybe you have a comment about the legality of people in quarantine refusing tests. From my quick look at the legislation, "treatment" for an epidemic notifiable disease can be enforced. I can't see specific mention of a diagnostic test - but it seems crazy if people can refuse. I believe compulsory treatment for TB is reasonably common - some people don't like the idea of taking antibiotics for > 6 months.

Well, I am glad that I am not the only one (along with my wife plus some of her hospital colleagues) who feel the same way about the previous supposed lack of cases. BTW, I am pretty sure it was 24 days.

I try to stay away from the details of some of the leading cases on what constitute "treatment" in the context of the protection under the NZBORA for the right to refuse medical treatment and the Health Act as I was once involved in some research for a case taken by a DHB against some parents who had some oddball/religious objection for certain essential treatment for their kid and these cases rile me. So what is about to come is more of a casual legal opinion. Whether the Health Act's provisions allowed people to refuse tests or not (I think they probably do), what should have been made abundantly clear long ago is the power to detain people for 28 days if they don't cooperate. Again it goes back to the magical thinking that I was complaining about a few pages back. We needed to see these incoming people as a genuine epidemiological threat -- this doesn't signify that they are necessarily terrible human beings or whatever. But instead the powers that be have spent all their time just shouting "Be nice! Be nice!" and giving people an at best way over-optimistic picture of how good our systems are to, at worst, just BSing everyone. And there's really not much point in having policies like testing people on their 3rd and 12th days of isolation when the MoH just doesn't bother to enforce them.

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#2509002 21-Jun-2020 00:28

frankv:
mattwnz: It is interesting that ours has cost over $80million. I wonder why ours is so high proportionally.

Yes, the figure mentioned was about $4k per person, which is about $300 per day, which seems pretty steep for a bed and 3 meals. Especially since the government is booking in bulk on a very flat hotel accommodation market. I'd have thought they ought to get it for about $100 per person-night, including meals. $150 tops. So I guess they're adding in the cost of airport transfers and testing and security and so on, up to and including Digby's salary.

Based on my experience of the corporate travel providers, they are probably paying MORE per night than you or I would, not less. They will also be charged a rate that reflects the costs of the deep cleaning that will be needed for all these premises in due course as well as increased sanitisation between guests and so on.

NZ hotels such as the ones being used are not cheap - I took my wife to the Sofitel for her birthday for 3 nights and we had 7 dinners as well (friends joined us one evening) and the bill was well north of $1500.

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#2509007 21-Jun-2020 01:05

Geektastic:

Based on my experience of the corporate travel providers, they are probably paying MORE per night than you or I would, not less. They will also be charged a rate that reflects the costs of the deep cleaning that will be needed for all these premises in due course as well as increased sanitisation between guests and so on.

NZ hotels such as the ones being used are not cheap - I took my wife to the Sofitel for her birthday for 3 nights and we had 7 dinners as well (friends joined us one evening) and the bill was well north of $1500.

Kind of begs the question why they aren't using cheaper hotels. Maybe due to access or quality of ventilation systems? If NZ gets community spread from Covid again, it will almost certainly be a result of what is occurring at these managed isolation facilities.

It is just so frustrating that our sacrifice and work to get rid of this virus, we may repeat similar errors we made at our borders prior to the lockdown.

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#2509014 21-Jun-2020 01:57

Fred99:

dejadeadnz:

Two new cases. Bloomfield trying to tell everyone that it's because the pandemic is getting worse overseas and more people are returning. It just couldn't have anything to do with the fact that there was incredibly inconsistent testing (or even non-existent testing) amongst the arrivals in isolation until very recently, could it? /Tui ad. The PR efforts are nauseating.

Not detecting any cases for 22 (?) consecutive days IMO seems very dodgy - especially given the incredibly stupid lack of testing.

Maybe you have a comment about the legality of people in quarantine refusing tests. From my quick look at the legislation, "treatment" for an epidemic notifiable disease can be enforced. I can't see specific mention of a diagnostic test - but it seems crazy if people can refuse. I believe compulsory treatment for TB is reasonably common - some people don't like the idea of taking antibiotics for > 6 months.

I do agree with Bloomfield about the pandemic getting worse overseas. Multiply the number of confirmed cases by the reported case fatality rate per country, then you get an approximation of how many undiagnosed cases there were a few weeks ago. For example the UK has a case fatality rate of 14% and 300,000 "confirmed" cases, so real cases a few weeks ago would have probably been at least 4 million. Similar in the US. These are "first world" nations with supposedly world-class health systems. The sh*t is going to hit the fan - C-19 is now totally out of control globally. >180,000 new cases "confirmed" yesterday - probably means a million actual new cases per day.

I think you are being conservative. Based on the experience we've had at work most people are, and remain asymptomatic.

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#2509019 21-Jun-2020 07:30

Batman:

maybe they are older

The first two words written in the title to the table are "age adjusted". So nope.

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#2509022 21-Jun-2020 07:57

Fred99:

Batman:

maybe they are older

The first two words written in the title to the table are "age adjusted". So nope.

maybe people who are sick believe there is god and people who are healthy believe there is no god

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#2509048 21-Jun-2020 09:40

mattwnz:
Geektastic:

Based on my experience of the corporate travel providers, they are probably paying MORE per night than you or I would, not less. They will also be charged a rate that reflects the costs of the deep cleaning that will be needed for all these premises in due course as well as increased sanitisation between guests and so on.

NZ hotels such as the ones being used are not cheap - I took my wife to the Sofitel for her birthday for 3 nights and we had 7 dinners as well (friends joined us one evening) and the bill was well north of $1500.

Kind of begs the question why they aren't using cheaper hotels. Maybe due to access or quality of ventilation systems? If NZ gets community spread from Covid again, it will almost certainly be a result of what is occurring at these managed isolation facilities.

It is just so frustrating that our sacrifice and work to get rid of this virus, we may repeat similar errors we made at our borders prior to the lockdown.

For $80 million, the government could probably have purchased a couple of hotels outright! At least the taxpayers would have assets to show for the expense.

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#2509061 21-Jun-2020 10:21

Fred99:

Hmmmm. Source.

A little clarity for those who can't be bothered reading the Source. These figures are deaths per 100,000 males and per 100,000 females.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

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