2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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896 posts

Ultimate Geek

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#2510602 23-Jun-2020 15:39

Batman:

so we should have been getting 1-2 cases a day when we had "zero" cases for the gazillion days prior to this week - would that be correct?

Based on the week past and the OZ experience this seems likely. The timeline is:

- prior to last week testing wasn't happening = 0 cases.

- last week start testing = immediately 1-2 cases per day.

DS248

1691 posts

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#2510605 23-Jun-2020 15:45

duckDecoy:

tdgeek:

Who do you believe? Take today, that was asked. The MAIN target is the 14 days, that also has some headroom he said. They will have symptoms in 14 days if they are infected. This is global guidance. Tests are an extra. If people have been there 14 days and no symptoms they are not infected.

This is flat out untrue. It has been mentioned in this thread that covid carriers can be totally asymptomatic. In a previous comment I gave a link to the two doctors aboard the infected cruise liner that reported 80% of positive cases were asymptomatic. Tests are not extra, they are essential.

Yes, and there other clear examples, including the Diamond Princess data I posted several days ago: ie. #2508299, #2508327

Recent data show that the majority (85/96) of asymptomatic confirmed cases transferred from the Diamond Princess to a hospital in Japan remained asymptomatic throughout the time they were quarantined in the hospital (Sakurai et al 2020, Letter to the Editor, NEJM 12 June).

These were cases under frequent medical monitoring in a hospital setting.

mattwnz

20141 posts

Uber Geek

#2510647 23-Jun-2020 15:58

Batman:

so we should have been getting 1-2 cases a day when we had "zero" cases for the gazillion days prior to this week - would that be correct?

This page explains it

"We had a long period when there wasn't routine testing of people who were asymptomatic – so that's one contributing factor."

"So that's all changed obviously with two tests which gives a much higher chance of detecting infected people.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121901812/coronavirus-why-were-suddenly-seeing-more-covid19-cases-coming-through-the-border

So it is likely we had other cases who came through the border, but they weren't tested as they possibly had no, or very minor symptoms that weren't contributed to it, so they didn't increase our numbers. So they just went through the 14 quarantine period. It seems that people wanting exemptions is what has brought this issue up, and means now everyone is being tested.

But anyone know why they are now not testing everyone upon entry into NZ? eg on day 1.

On2or3wheels

195 posts

Master Geek

#2510648 23-Jun-2020 16:00

duckDecoy:

This is flat out untrue. It has been mentioned in this thread that covid carriers can be totally asymptomatic. In a previous comment I gave a link to the two doctors aboard the infected cruise liner that reported 80% of positive cases were asymptomatic. Tests are not extra, they are essential.

It doesn't matter if they're asymptomatic, they're still in quarantine to wait out the 14 days (assuming watertight quarantine).

You're still only contagious at the beginning the same as a person showing symptoms.

When we had Covid in the general NZ population we didn't require a negative test at the end, we trusted the 14 days. That worked out fine.

mattwnz

20141 posts

Uber Geek

#2510650 23-Jun-2020 16:06

On2or3wheels:

When we had Covid in the general NZ population we didn't require a negative test at the end, we trusted the 14 days. That worked out fine.

Wasn't that when we were still under level 4,3 and then 2? So most people were isolated anyway. The problem we now have is that we are in level 1, which is essentially back to normal internally, so there is significantly more mixing going on.. I am guessing that is one reason they are now requiring more testing, to reduce the risk at the border even more, as these additional testing requirements appear to have come in as we moved down to level 1.

The should be zero cases getting through the border into the community. If one does, then that indicates a hole in the system.

duckDecoy

896 posts

Ultimate Geek

Subscriber

#2510657 23-Jun-2020 16:14

On2or3wheels:

It doesn't matter if they're asymptomatic, they're still in quarantine to wait out the 14 days (assuming watertight quarantine).

There is a bit of loss of context here, could there be CT from people who have been released. We now know isolation protocols were not great, so asymptomatic at release does not ensure they were not infectious. This is different to what may be happening now things have tightened.

Handle9

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#2510663 23-Jun-2020 16:24

Rikkitic:

I have avoided this discussion until now because I did not feel I have anything to contribute that others haven't already done to death. As the saying goes, I am not a lawyer and I am also not a medical expert or health care professional.

Anyway, here is my highly inexpert opinion on the matter at hand: As a vulnerable individual, I was, and remain, extremely grateful for the actions of our authorities in limiting the spread of Covid19. I believe they got a lot more right than they got wrong. The lax and incoherent 'she'll be right' actions at the border are inexcusable and deplorable, but they don't appear to have led to any new major outbreaks. Maybe we have just been lucky.

I don't think the authorities are lying through their teeth to cover their sloppiness. I think they made some big mistakes and have done their best to rectify those.

It is intriguing to see how quickly the PM and Dr Bloemfield went from hero to zero. The media, and some posters here, remind me of geese. Anyone who has ever walked past some will know what I mean. They scatter like cowards as you approach, then gang up and come after you honking bravely once you are safely past.

Of course things could still take a turn for the worst, but as of right now, we seem to be one of the few places in the world where the virus has been contained, with no sign so far of new community transmission. People are able to go shopping and participate in other daily activities without feeling they are taking their lives in their hands every time they go out. That is certainly worth something. Most of the world still sees New Zealand as an extremely desirable place to be.

Criticism is warranted where justified, and some bad mistakes were made. That shouldn't be glossed over. But who would we replace Jacinda Ardern and Ashley Bloemfield with? I am glad they are running the show and I can't think of anyone I would rather have in their place. They and many others are doing the best they can in extraordinary circumstances. Instead of honking at them, we should be thanking them. But that is just my opinion.

You are being exceptionally unkind to geese. Some of the posts on here are very revealing of peoples character. Fear, panic and anger does very strange things to people. The smug sense of superiority that New Zealand had has been burst quite dramatically.

Ardern is a politician, Bloomfield is head of a part of a large organisation. They aren't saints, they aren't the devil.Politicians lie and deflect blame, large organisations doing highly complex tasks have all sorts of coordination problems and screw ups.

Man bites dog, more news at 11.

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DS248

1691 posts

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#2510672 23-Jun-2020 17:13

Pandemic vs political spin? The Victorian example.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/victoria-coronavirus-neil-mitchell-analysis-amid-covid-19-spike/87600f22-74cc-414e-b4f4-263e537b08b8

...

"And too many people have been leaving quarantine and have to be tracked down by police.

In NSW the defence forces made sure the rules were followed in those facilities ... Sydney had far fewer problems and a far tougher approach

Then there's the spin. Early in this horror there was an outbreak at a meat processing works, Cedar Meats. The authorities didn't ask enough questions and didn't ask the right questions. They cited privacy for victims while the list of infected people grew."

As it got worse but the health minister and the premier both said: "this has been handled perfectly."

...

"And that is perhaps the ultimate danger and the ultimate message to the rest of the country. Trust your public, treat them like adults. Tell them the truth and if you make an error admit it. Everybody will understand that. These are unprecedented times and everybody is working under pressure. Mistakes will be made and pretending otherwise is offensive"

mattwnz

20141 posts

Uber Geek

#2510675 23-Jun-2020 17:17

duckDecoy:

On2or3wheels:

It doesn't matter if they're asymptomatic, they're still in quarantine to wait out the 14 days (assuming watertight quarantine).

There is a bit of loss of context here, could there be CT from people who have been released. We now know isolation protocols were not great, so asymptomatic at release does not ensure they were not infectious. This is different to what may be happening now things have tightened.

New issues are shown by his story

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/121917273/coronavirus-scotland-to-nz-and-two-weeks-quarantine-but-no-test

People in quarantine appear to be allowed to socialise when smoking. Some even allegedly arranged room parties, even though it was prevented. Why are these people even arranging parties in their isolation hotel? Seems some are just trying to get away with what they can, which imo shows we can't trust people to do the right thing.

We know that when the virus is in a facility like resthome, or cruise ship, that that virus has the potential spread amongst people, and stay active for months as it passes between people. My understanding is, that if someone has had the potential to infect someone else in the hotel, eg say on day 5, it essentially resets the 14 days for that person who has been exposed to the virus on day 5, when they get potentially infected from that person in the hotel Or am I wrong on this?

I thought they were all being kept totally isolated from one another in their rooms, and not allowed to socialise with other people, even on the same plane

tdgeek

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#2510760 23-Jun-2020 17:53

GV27:

Like I say, that's the real rub - if they're asymptomatic but were infected on day 7 then they could have conceivably got out there.

We won't know until it reaches a certain critical mass in the community given current testing is presumably mostly focused on inwards arrivals.

It's like having 10,000 parts on an F1 car and 99.9% of them being 100% reliable. It's the 0.01% that will leave you stranded (here's looking at you, McLaren Honda).

All I can say is they know more than we do. The way this thread has gone, MoH should be replaced by Geekzone! They know what they are doing, so far its gone supremely well. If we have 0.01% CT that was always the plan, to lift the lockdown, ring fence anything that pops up. We can't expect all of this from day one to now to be super easy and no issue. The easy option was Level 4 for months and months. Also to ban Kiwis from NZ. But you cant do both those things, economically, and rights of Kiwi citizens. Where we are now, it's the best of both worlds IMHO. There are plenty here that wanted L4 ended after 2 weeks. Ban Kiwis. Then we want bubbles everywhere for the economy. How can all that reconcile? This approach has been conservative, one hit. Thats worked. Many other places deserved praise, now they are fighting it again. We should be happy where we are, IMHO

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#2510766 23-Jun-2020 18:07

Smoking, Sharing a Smoking Room ,Hmm maybe someone can sneak in and stick covid exchange zone stickers on the glass smoking room walls.

Might be a good time to give up , give them free nicotine patches ? ! Works in prisons.
Apparently South Africa and India banned sales of smoking products during their lockdowns.

Being cruel to be kind.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30239-3/fulltext

""""
Robust evidence suggests that several mechanisms might increase the risk of respiratory tract infections in smokers. Smoking impairs the immune system and almost doubles the risk of tuberculosis infection (latent and active) due to impairment of immune function; specifically, smoking affects the macrophage and cytokine response and hence the ability to contain infection. Similarly the risk for pneumococcal, legionella, and mycoplasma pneumonia infection is about 3–5-times higher in smokers. Users of tobacco and e-cigarettes have increased adherence of pneumococci and colonisation, as a result of the upregulation of the pneumococcal receptor molecule (platelet activating receptor factor); smokers are also 5-times more likely to contract influenza than non-smokers.
""""

tdgeek

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#2510767 23-Jun-2020 18:07

duckDecoy:

tdgeek:

Who do you believe? Take today, that was asked. The MAIN target is the 14 days, that also has some headroom he said. They will have symptoms in 14 days if they are infected. This is global guidance. Tests are an extra. If people have been there 14 days and no symptoms they are not infected.

This is flat out untrue. It has been mentioned in this thread that covid carriers can be totally asymptomatic. In a previous comment I gave a link to the two doctors aboard the infected cruise liner that reported 80% of positive cases were asymptomatic. Tests are not extra, they are essential.

Dont bash me, Im just the messenger. If you watched todays live broadcast thats what was said. 14 days is the big deal. You need to take the MoH to task on that one. And count the CT we have, which is zero. Count the CT we had which was next to zero. Count CT that Australia has, a tick over 10% of their 7400 cases they don't know where each one came from. Thats the difference.

Its been mentioned in this thread? No doubt. There are people here who have no knowledge, and some who do, we are not MoH or WHO or those that collectively based on world guidances, made calls. Those calls worked. How many NZ cases have we had on the last month? Zip. If we get 25 cases every day from aircraft, its still zip here. Results matter

If you look at the overall result, chime in on bungles which is deserved, when you analyse it all, we are here, where we want to be.

tdgeek

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#2510770 23-Jun-2020 18:12

Batman:

so we should have been getting 1-2 cases a day when we had "zero" cases for the gazillion days prior to this week - would that be correct?

Maybe. Most if not all travel in recent times has been with AUS. Safe. Doing better than us. NOW, travel is everywhere, from everywhere, so we see cases from UK, India, Pakistan, USA. Emirates are here soon too. Its not that surprising that cases from chiefly AUS were low, but yes testing was low on arrivals too. But no symptoms you can go. We have seen zero cases on the community. Now travel here is high 590 today, from all sorts of places now, it fits.

tdgeek

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#2510776 23-Jun-2020 18:18

mattwnz:

But anyone know why they are now not testing everyone upon entry into NZ? eg on day 1.

Why? I feel great, I still feel great 3.5 hours later. You need to allow it to incubate. I guess you could test 14 times in 14 days, but thats wasteful. The BOTTOM line is you test negative when you leave. As a bursary backstop they test on days 3 and 12. Id rather staff which are finite spend time managing the people, than testing every day. You didn't say every day but if you test when they arrive and its negate then what? Asymptomatic? Test later. The prime need is security from the other 5 million thats what matters IMO

ezbee

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#2510777 23-Jun-2020 18:19

Looks like we have odds of about 2 cases for every days 400-500 arrivals , very approximate measurement with thumb.
Someone versed in stats could make a more detailed analysis, based on entries on day of travel, and even by location.
As mentioned the probability of a case is diluted by Australia origin travelers with much lower likelihood.

So quite a bit better than Lotto Division 6 ( 1 in 363 ) , odds that anyone arriving will have covid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotto_New_Zealand
If you are gambling sort.

Edit for lotto odds and average winning link.

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