Had a message from a friend telling me she wasn't tested in isolation either before she left. Yikes. 

But how long ago did she leave isolation? 

mattwnz:

 

The problem, and I haven't seen much  mention so far in the media, is what happens when we start getting 50, or 100 positive cases a day from incoming travelers? Or even more, as higher percentages on the plane test positive. This virus appear to be now rampant in high risk countries like India. We are not talking a million new infections a week, and the rate will only increase significantly. 

 

Could NZ cope with 20% or more of the plane being infected? We are also likely to end up with more requiring hospitisiation. Then when that happens there is the increased risk of it then getting into our community, like occurred with a previous hospital cluster, where nurses got it. 

 

I think a lot more needs to be done to try and bring in people who are clear of the virus. Fining airlines is one idea I have heard, which would likely mean requiring a big deposit from those traveling in.

 

Also I think we need any hospitalization to also be in the quarantine, rather than bringing these cases out into the communities hospitals. 

 

NZs expert Professor on this was  on TV tonight basically said that we are really only at the start of this virus, and 4 billion people could be infected eventually, and 10s of millions may eventually die. 

 

I imagine if that did happen, imports of 50-100 cases per day, that we would need to cease incoming flights. Given that this will build up, we would start to ration flights, so that expected incoming cases were capable of being managed/hospitalised. Drip feed planes if you will

DS248:

 

But how long ago did she leave isolation? 

 

A while ago, at least three weeks by my count. Maybe four? Returned from the USA. 

For clarity's sake, I know of two others in/just out of isolation and they both have been tested at least once. 

Handle9: This was posted on one of the expat groups I am on. Take it as you will...

Okay the one sided reporting coming out of the media is really starting to piss me off. I stayed two weeks at this hotel. I never once in that time came within two metres of any guest or staff member. ...

1. temporarily pissed off arrivals who then get to stay in a country unique in the world
   
   
2. arrivals killing innocents, creating a wave of nationwide economic instability, damaging our reputation worldwide, slowing down job creation, and burdening everyone with additional government debt

Europe is considering banning Americans! Wall, anyone?

Scott3:

Regarding the above, my take is that there must be significant variation between the different facilities, and possibly a few poorly behaving groups have been responsible for the negitive headlines.

I must say it makes a pleasant change from the barrage of negitive stories such as people in isolation having guests over, room parties, lobby birthday parties, people sneaking out of isolation to go to the supermarket for booze & snacks etc.

Sadly I think we need to move to management with a lower trust level. For example in Australia people in isolation aren't given room keys etc.

Rikkitic:

 

Europe is considering banning Americans! Wall, anyone?

 

 

 

Seems shares in "build a wall" Inc are due to skyrocket .   Get em while you can.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/ill-build-a-wall-sa-premier-escalates-border-war-with-victoria/news-story/89d339fe12de705b58e58625ace81bdf
The South Australia Premier has escalated the border war with Victoria, suggesting he’ll build a wall and send their neighbors the bill.

Australia is not looking at all ready for open boarders.  
Hopefully they can get control back of these outbreaks , problem is with very large population there are a lot more places for covid to hide.

@concordnz: I would like to see "Far More" Defence force involvement.
(Currently there is only 2 per facility & it is likely none are at any of the facilities - they are all the Air Commodore's staff or on a base somewhere.)

Ge0rge:

@concordnz: I would like to see "Far More" Defence force involvement.
(Currently there is only 2 per facility & it is likely none are at any of the facilities - they are all the Air Commodore's staff or on a base somewhere.)

I can categorically assure you that your assumptions are wrong. There are more than 2 per facility, they are actively in the facilities, they are not just the AC's staff, and they are not "on a base somewhere".

A few days agao, the defence force numbefs were 36, now 72, and AFAIK they worked at the centres alongside the Police. Police numbers have also been increased, unsure how much

Management of the centres and border is AC Webb, replacing Mike Bush. who I assume is still involved

tdgeek:

Ge0rge:
I can categorically assure you that your assumptions are wrong. There are more than 2 per facility, they are actively in the facilities, they are not just the AC's staff, and they are not "on a base somewhere".

A few days agao, the defence force numbefs were 36, now 72, and AFAIK they worked at the centres alongside the Police. Police numbers have also been increased, unsure how much

Management of the centres and border is AC Webb, replacing Mike Bush. who I assume is still involved

concordnz:

Thanks for clarifying @Ge0rge

Somewhere I had seen that there were 18 facilities.
If we now have 72 DFNZ staff on site
- that = 4 per facility, it still seems quite low to make things operate correctly/efficiently.

I'd feel way more comfortable if all the staff(apart from cleaners) at these sites were our defense force personal.

Well, they have been there a month at least, when it was leaking. I feel the increased numbers is a big help, but its more AC Webb/MP Woods thats made a stark change in the last few days. MoH is responsible but seems out of the loop. Police "appear" not to have done well. But when its multi centres in multi locations, a few thousand at any one time, and hundreds per day, its not a cakewalk

mattwnz:

 

The problem, and I haven't seen much  mention so far in the media, is what happens when we start getting 50, or 100 positive cases a day from incoming travelers? Or even more, as higher percentages on the plane test positive. This virus appear to be now rampant in high risk countries like India. We are not talking a million new infections a week, and the rate will only increase significantly. 

 

Could NZ cope with 20% or more of the plane being infected?

 

No country has even approached 20% infection rate. The highest in the world according to Worldometer is Qatar at 31,904/1M population = 3.2%. Infection rates are much lower in other countries (e.g. USA overall = 0.7%, New York = 2.1%, India = 331/1M = 0.03% (although these are all likely significantly under-reported)).

20% infection rates would change the whole ball game in a very bad way, because hospitals would be overwhelmed and death rates would increase tenfold. As per Italy & Spain & New York, anything above about 1% is a full-fledged disaster. So 20% isn't going to happen... long before that, harsh lockdowns would be applied, and few people would resist them. And incoming flights from that area would certainly be banned by NZ.

Some potentially concerning news is coming in.
Until more is known it would be best not to get this even if you are a gambler and in the most survivable age range.

""
Tens of thousands of people will need to be recalled to hospital after a serious Covid-19 infection to check if they have been left with permanent lung damage, doctors have told the BBC.
Experts are concerned a significant proportion could be left with lung scarring, known as pulmonary fibrosis.
The condition is irreversible and symptoms can include severe shortness of breath, coughing and fatigue.
""

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53065340

With this virus being so recent we have had barely 6 months to see long term implications for survivors.
The original SARS ( not having the spike structure that supercharges this one ) was contained quickly , so not much research done then.

While preserving our boarder is difficult to do 'forever' , we can do this for a time, its the course that gives us most options in future too.
Once you go down a different track there is no turning the clock back on doing a Sweden or Brazil.

We are buying time to have better information before setting any course there is no turning back from.
Better treatments, even Boris Johnson would have benefited greatly from refinement in treatment over the months.

Sweden is having trouble with its neighbors not wanting to open or be very open to them, and still suffering economically and may be years away from their goal.
Even in Australia things are getting fractious between states on boarder controls.
Who would want to join our party if we went this way prematurely ?
Then there is value of our export industries that could suffer if we can't get the premium we have built for our brand.