2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2512639 26-Jun-2020 10:17

GV27:

Could be some fun bits and pieces today - another round of cabinet papers relating to the response released.

Given the last one was released Friday afternoon and this has been released in the morning, I'm not expecting anything politically explosive compared to the last one.

Always interesting to see who was saying what and when.

A late-May paper from the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet shows that Health Director General Ashley Bloomfield wanted the country to spend quite a lot longer at alert level 2.

Bloomfield was keen to spend 28 days at "the full version" of alert level 2, with gatherings restricted to 100 people.

This only began at 29 May - meaning Bloomfield wanted most of June itself to be in level 2.

But amid many days with no new cases and a big push from business, National, and NZ First, New Zealand ended up moving to alert level 1 much sooner on June 8.

I hope it was worth it - moving to level 1 despite expert opinion not to rush it.

Oblivian

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#2512709 26-Jun-2020 10:43

freitasm:

Breaking news! People coming from disease hotspot may have positive results when tested for disease.

Folks... We are past this. We know there was some stupid people doing stupid things. The hole is plugged (it seems). Whatever shows up now, if not in the community, would be expected.

That's what I was getting at. We're all prepared for it. Yet media keep on bashing out those headlines as if it wasn't.

Beyond a joke what they are doing for clicks only to give you 'please support our great reporting' popups.

1101

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#2512717 26-Jun-2020 10:59

Oblivian:

That's what I was getting at. We're all prepared for it. Yet media keep on bashing out those headlines as if it wasn't.

Beyond a joke what they are doing for clicks only to give you 'please support our great reporting' popups.

The same media that were heavily pushing for early releases on compassionate grounds .
Some in the media were rabid in their opinions on this . Strangely they have now gone quiet about early release .

KrazyKid

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#2512719 26-Jun-2020 11:04

Bloomfield was keen to spend 28 days at "the full version" of alert level 2, with gatherings restricted to 100 people.

This only began at 29 May - meaning Bloomfield wanted most of June itself to be in level 2.

I hope it was worth it - moving to level 1 despite expert opinion not to rush it.

You would have to say that the right result has probably happened given we have now managed 28 days without a local case since starting level 2.
You could argue we were lucky and playing with fire, or accept the MoH was playing it overly save and the economic health of the country also effects personal heath outcomes.

Either way it looks like we have most likely eliminated it for now in NZ.

ezbee

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#2512757 26-Jun-2020 11:43

Air transport group calls for end to quarantine measures
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121940759/coronavirus-air-transport-group-calls-for-end-to-quarantine-measures

Maybe it should be in the poorly written pres release category.
The article seems to be mixing things that 'could/might' be done in the future , with a call to end quarantine now/soon?

""The longer we have quarantine measures in place, the more international airline connections we will lose," Tighe-Umbers said.
"New Zealand will be left behind as the rest of the world opens up."

Um behind who ?

Taiwan , Hong Kong ,Singapore and a very long list of countries are not taking people in without isolation.
Though if they are willing Taiwan has been clear of local transmission for a very long time.
They can even supply very high quality Masks and PPE to support, perhaps along with testing technology they have.
Relatively high incomes to spend on tourism ? But politically this would be unacceptable for us.
Australia well um , and they still have interstate restrictions that might get tougher.
Even fellow Europe countries have restrictions also , travel from Sweden to its neighbors is not free.
USA, South America ready to send us people soon anyone ?
Its a bit different perhaps if you have highly invasive contact tracing and real time tracking, CCTV surveillance everywhere , but not a silver bullet as we have seen.

So it seems a bit early to be left behind ?

The new measures, new accurate fast tests, infrastructure needs to exist and then be put in place in departing Airports/Locations.
Plus 'test and go' can't ever seem to work, as you need to have some isolation time to be sure that the person is not too early in infection.

So we are back to hurry up and wait for rest of world and technology to exist and be proven.

With problems re travel insurance, higher flight costs , job insecurity world wide, the tourism market would still be greatly depressed.
IATA did mention some good ideas like booking flexibility/insurance was needed , etc and given its in its own members hands maybe they can sort that themselves first.

Fred99

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#2512761 26-Jun-2020 11:50

KrazyKid:

Either way it looks like we have most likely eliminated it for now in NZ.

I hope you're right, but absence of evidence (of local CT) isn't evidence of absence - I get a bit anxious about the possibility that there's hidden CT.

freitasm

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#2512766 26-Jun-2020 12:00

People complaining should take a pause, breath and THINK... From CNN:

Florida and Texas announced Wednesday that they had recorded more than 5,000 new Covid-19 cases the prior day, a new daily record. California reported more than 7,000 cases, obliterating a record hit a day earlier.

Hospitals in California have seen a 32% increase in patients with the coronavirus over the last 14-day period, reaching an all-time high since the pandemic began, Newsom said. The number of patients in intensive care units has reached a record high after increasing 19% over the last two weeks.

Florida passed 5,000 again on Thursday, according to new state data.

Florida, Texas and California account for 27.4% of the 328 million people living in the US, according to the latest US Census Bureau estimates.

Sharesies

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

freitasm

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#2512767 26-Jun-2020 12:01

Fred99:

KrazyKid:

Either way it looks like we have most likely eliminated it for now in NZ.

I hope you're right, but absence of evidence (of local CT) isn't evidence of absence - I get a bit anxious about the possibility that there's hidden CT.

As above - if we aren't seeing positive results and no hospitalisation spikes...

ezbee

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#2512774 26-Jun-2020 12:18

Fred99:

KrazyKid:

Either way it looks like we have most likely eliminated it for now in NZ.

I hope you're right, but absence of evidence (of local CT) isn't evidence of absence - I get a bit anxious about the possibility that there's hidden CT.

I am sure there are some numbers on this that statisticians have.
I can't recall an article with specific graphs of days clear with % likelihood of total elimination.

Given various assumptions on R rate , and % of cases that are asymptomatic.
To get time till symptomatic case causes a test and warning.
You might get a range of confidence for X days clear.

If someone can point to that ?

28days seemed to be a goldish standard ?

Taiwan has been 74 Days clear .
Just double checking all past contacts of a Japanese student who tested positive sometime after returning to Japan.
To isolate if they got it in Japan, which is very likely, vs Taiwan very low chance.
Clear so far but still a few more tests to come in.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3954227

What ever happened to the sewer testing , if this works as well as was said this should start to show ?

Fred99

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#2512777 26-Jun-2020 12:20

freitasm:

The number of patients in intensive care units has reached a record high after increasing 19% over the last two weeks.

Houston ICU beds are now at 100% capacity - they've got a big problem.

"Now on to good news - the DJIA surged 300 points on hopes reopening the economy may boost 3rd quarter profit forecasts"

GV27

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#2512842 26-Jun-2020 13:21

Seems like we ran a record number of tests through labs yesterday? Almost 10K apparently. That's comforting.

PolicyGuy

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#2512845 26-Jun-2020 13:31

GV27:

Seems like we ran a record number of tests through labs yesterday? Almost 10K apparently. That's comforting.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases#lab

23-June    9,174
24-June   10,436
25-June    9,825

Edit: Formatting

frankv

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#2512856 26-Jun-2020 13:44

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300043095/coronavirus-border-breach-uncertainty-traced-to-it-oversight

There are two databases, one containing information about people in managed isolation, such as their date of arrival, the country they came from and when they departed or are scheduled to depart. The other database contains medical information, the most important points of which are whether people were tested and what the test results were.

When people were tested for Covid-19, Bloomfield said, their National Health Index (NHI) number wasn't collected. That number, which is used to coordinate different medical databases and is a unique health identifier for every New Zealander, would have been crucial to aligning the two databases.

In the absence of the NHI number, Ministry of Health staff have had to personally compare different entries in each database one-by-one, making sure that names, dates of birth and other identifying information match up in order to ensure the two entries are for the same person.

Maybe it's been misreported or there's a Chinese whispers between what's happened and what the DG is told. Maybe it's scapegoat time, and IT is always convenient. But if any of it is true, it again indicates the total incompetence of the MoH. It is absolutely appalling.

It seems to me to be impossibly stupid to NOT record the NHI for a patient. This is NZ Health Care 101. Lab orders *must* have a patient identifier. Think about how worthless a lab result is if it doesn't belong to a patient. Where a hospital patient's NHI is unknown (e.g. arrive unconscious in an ambulance), a temporary NHI is assigned, which will later be linked to their actual NHI. Surely the DHBs that were administering the tests must have known the importance of NHIs.

Even assuming that the results didn't have NHIs, it's not hard to do a JOIN on surname and firstname and DoB and gender, and use that to update the NHI on the lab results. You might get a couple of discrepancies due to data entry or typos, but 99% will match. So surely the "personally compare different entries in each database one-by-one" is nonsense.

freitasm

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#2512875 26-Jun-2020 14:08

When I was tested I was asked for the number and if I log into my practice's system I can see the results there since it came out... So not sure when/where the numbers were not being collected.

freitasm

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#2512893 26-Jun-2020 14:12

ezbee:

Air transport group calls for end to quarantine measures

""The longer we have quarantine measures in place, the more international airline connections we will lose," Tighe-Umbers said.

"New Zealand will be left behind as the rest of the world opens up."

Self-serving group wants to make money despite the threat to citizen's health. News at 6pm...

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