2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2526087 20-Jul-2020 16:11

I think that with the known/observed mutations, then no problem so far.
With 5 million confirmed active cases (probably in truth many multiples of that) on the planet and growing exponentially, then tomorrow - who knows?

frankv

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#2526088 20-Jul-2020 16:12

Fred99:

You might be able to get reinfected and not get sick, but test positive for viral RNA - so that gets confusing / hard to measure

How sensitive is that test anyway?

I wonder if you could get enough viral RNA in your nasal cavity to test positive just from someone coughing/sneezing on you. So you would test positive even though you weren't actually infected (i.e. it hadn't started replicating in your lungs)? This way, someone who was immune might test positive.

jarledb

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#2526104 20-Jul-2020 16:49

There has been a lot of talk about the economic problems with closing down for Covid-19.

Turns out that keeping everything open did not help the economy, at least not for Sweden.

From an article in Aftenposten (behind paywall, so can't link to it). Google translated:

A major disadvantage of shutting down societies in the fight against the pandemic has been that the countries' economies have been hit very hard. Several have presented the countries' choices as a choice between health and economics. If it is not shut down, more people will die. If it closes, the economy will bottom out.

Norway and Denmark chose an almost total closure of society. Sweden chose a different strategy where much was kept open. So far, 254 have died in Norway, 610 in Denmark and 5619 in Sweden.

Then one would think that the Swedish economy was less affected than in neighboring countries. But new figures suggest that Sweden will be hit twice by the corona crisis. Thousands have died, at the same time the country is being hit at least as hard financially.

Many unemployed Swedes after the corona

Preliminary figures from the central banks in Norway, Sweden and Denmark show the following unemployment figures and calculations for how the economy will shrink:

Denmark: According to the Danish central bank, the economy will shrink by 4.1 per cent this year. Unemployment is unchanged (from 4.9 per cent in February to 5 per cent in May).
Norway: The economy will shrink by 3.9 percent this year, according to calculations from the Central Bank. Unemployment was 4.1 percent in April. That is up from 3.5 percent in February.
Sweden: The economy will shrink by 4.5 percent. Unemployment has risen from 7.1 per cent in February to 8 per cent in May.

Unemployment figures are taken from Eurostat.

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DS248

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#2526119 20-Jul-2020 17:32

Victorian hotel quarantine inquiry examines errors that could have caused 'every case' now in the state

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-20/victoria-coronavirus-hotel-quarantine-inquiry-day-1-in-melbourne/12471916

kingdragonfly

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#2526128 20-Jul-2020 18:10

New York Times: Inside Trump’s Failure: The Rush to Abandon Leadership Role on the Virus

The roots of the nation’s current inability to control the pandemic can be traced to mid-April, when the White House embraced overly rosy projections to proclaim victory and move on.

...Over a critical period beginning in mid-April, President Trump and his team convinced themselves that the outbreak was fading, that they had given state governments all the resources they needed to contain its remaining “embers” and that it was time to ease up on the lockdown.

In doing so, he was ignoring warnings that the numbers would continue to drop only if social distancing was kept in place, rushing instead to restart the economy and tend to his battered re-election hopes.

Casting the decision in ideological terms, Mr. Meadows would tell people: “Only in Washington, D.C., do they think that they have the answer for all of America.”

For scientific affirmation, they turned to Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the sole public health professional in the Meadows group. A highly regarded infectious diseases expert, she was a constant source of upbeat news for the president and his aides, walking the halls with charts emphasizing that outbreaks were gradually easing. The country, she insisted, was likely to resemble Italy, where virus cases declined steadily from frightening heights.

On April 11, she told the coronavirus task force in the Situation Room that the nation was in good shape. Boston and Chicago are two weeks away from the peak, she cautioned, but the numbers in Detroit and other hard-hit cities are heading down.

A sharp pivot soon followed, with consequences that continue to plague the country today as the virus surges anew.
...

freitasm

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#2526133 20-Jul-2020 18:19

Comparing Dr Birx and Dr Fauci is unfair to him.

She never seemed to say anything that would contradict her boss, unlike Dr Fauci.

Batman

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#2526155 20-Jul-2020 18:34

the guardian (one liner) says melbourne is making masks compulsory let me see if i can find a proper link

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#2526156 20-Jul-2020 18:39

Batman:

the guardian (one liner) says melbourne is making masks compulsory let me see if i can find a proper link

That was announced on the weekend (and timeline expanded a few pages back)

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=161&topicid=265423&page_no=814#2525615

$200 fine in public

And stocks have all but run out. It happened very fast after another massive total

Fred99

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#2526158 20-Jul-2020 18:45

frankv:

Fred99:

You might be able to get reinfected and not get sick, but test positive for viral RNA - so that gets confusing / hard to measure

How sensitive is that test anyway?

I wonder if you could get enough viral RNA in your nasal cavity to test positive just from someone coughing/sneezing on you. So you would test positive even though you weren't actually infected (i.e. it hadn't started replicating in your lungs)? This way, someone who was immune might test positive.

I don't know enough about it, but when you amplify the DNA (PCR) - you can go through as many cycles as you like until you "find" what you're looking for - so it's kind of "infinitely sensitive" and you need very carefully prepared "negative" control samples to run in parallel - to reduce the chance of false positives from errors.
I'm guessing - but if someone infected and shedding lots of virions sneezed at you, then sure - a positive test from a swab could be the result, even with controls.

Batman

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#2526209 20-Jul-2020 19:48

Oblivian:
Batman:

the guardian (one liner) says melbourne is making masks compulsory let me see if i can find a proper link

That was announced on the weekend (and timeline expanded a few pages back)

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=161&topicid=265423&page_no=814#2525615

$200 fine in public

And stocks have all but run out. It happened very fast after another massive total

So if you have no stock then you can't wear mask right?

vexxxboy

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#2526211 20-Jul-2020 19:57

once a country starts making masks compulsory , you know the virus is out of control

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Oblivian

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#2526219 20-Jul-2020 20:55

vexxxboy:

once a country starts making masks compulsory , you know the virus is out of control

My exact thoughts when some states pulled that. Was too far gone, and since they couldn't control the habits that help the spread. Start to control the method it does. But shot them selves in the foot in doing so when they did.

At least Australia has had a taste of what happens when you don't. And with luck makes them take it in stride.

Re stocks

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/07/20/masks-mandatory-government-retailers/

About 30,000 boxes of 50 off the shelves before stock ran out.. (more than 1.5million sold)

Handle9

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#2526220 20-Jul-2020 21:01

jarledb:

There has been a lot of talk about the economic problems with closing down for Covid-19.

Turns out that keeping everything open did not help the economy, at least not for Sweden.

From an article in Aftenposten (behind paywall, so can't link to it). Google translated:

A major disadvantage of shutting down societies in the fight against the pandemic has been that the countries' economies have been hit very hard. Several have presented the countries' choices as a choice between health and economics. If it is not shut down, more people will die. If it closes, the economy will bottom out.

Norway and Denmark chose an almost total closure of society. Sweden chose a different strategy where much was kept open. So far, 254 have died in Norway, 610 in Denmark and 5619 in Sweden.

Then one would think that the Swedish economy was less affected than in neighboring countries. But new figures suggest that Sweden will be hit twice by the corona crisis. Thousands have died, at the same time the country is being hit at least as hard financially.

Many unemployed Swedes after the corona

Preliminary figures from the central banks in Norway, Sweden and Denmark show the following unemployment figures and calculations for how the economy will shrink:

Denmark: According to the Danish central bank, the economy will shrink by 4.1 per cent this year. Unemployment is unchanged (from 4.9 per cent in February to 5 per cent in May).
Norway: The economy will shrink by 3.9 percent this year, according to calculations from the Central Bank. Unemployment was 4.1 percent in April. That is up from 3.5 percent in February.
Sweden: The economy will shrink by 4.5 percent. Unemployment has risen from 7.1 per cent in February to 8 per cent in May.
Unemployment figures are taken from Eurostat.

The economy globally has huge problems. The questions isn't if the recession is happening it's how deep/long will it go, how many people will be effected and to what extent it can be mitigated.

Scott3

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#2526222 20-Jul-2020 21:06

vexxxboy:

once a country starts making masks compulsory , you know the virus is out of control

I don't think so. The evidence seems to be that masks are a fairly easy & low cost way to reduce spread of the virus.

I would think it would be one of the first things to do when you have cases of the virus wild in the community.

Oblivian

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#2526229 20-Jul-2020 21:28

Batman:
So if you have no stock then you can't wear mask right?

Not quite.

They're headlining it masks.

But the idea appears to be 'face covering'. Be it a bandana, bra, mask, stockings..

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