2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2432888 5-Mar-2020 07:26

We have a 3rd case here, I would assume No.2's husband. If so, that's expected as its known he is unwell. If a new one, that's a concern, one would hope its off the Emirates flight, at least thats a known source

heavenlywild

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#2432890 5-Mar-2020 07:30

tdgeek:
We have a 3rd case here, I would assume No.2's husband. If so, that's expected as its known he is unwell. If a new one, that's a concern, one would hope its off the Emirates flight, at least thats a known source

It's not the husband according to what I've heard.

tdgeek

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#2432891 5-Mar-2020 07:33

heavenlywild:
tdgeek:

We have a 3rd case here, I would assume No.2's husband. If so, that's expected as its known he is unwell. If a new one, that's a concern, one would hope its off the Emirates flight, at least thats a known source

It's not the husband according to what I've heard.

Yep, thanks, I need to read Newshub more and Stuff less!

heavenlywild

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#2432892 5-Mar-2020 07:42

The husband's result is due out later today or overnight.

The increase in cases shouldn't be surprising. Although let's remember the first case is now recovering well, the second case is not sick enough to be in hospital. So let's not panic NZ :)

Fred99

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#2432932 5-Mar-2020 09:03

I've got an amateur hypothesis about Covid-19:

When an epidemic presents with unusual population distribution patterns, then something unusual is probably behind it. Polio and HIV epidemics are good examples - and it took a long time to find out what was really going on.

Covid-19 is not showing expected patterns for progression of a respiratory virus epidemic/pandemic:

The high toll on the elderly/infirm is expected, but it should also be expected that there'd be a corresponding peak in severity and mortality in the young and vulnerable - but there is none at all.

The observed global distribution patterns for Covid-19 do not match prior epidemiological models based on travel of (infectious) people from China. Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam should have been hit very hard - but they haven't been. The major community outbreaks are in first-world countries - except perhaps Iran. Assumptions made that's because they "aren't testing enough" may be incorrect - first cases have been in Thailand and Vietnam for long enough so that with a high reproduction index, they'd be so overwhelmed with cases that it couldn't be ignored or attributed to "normal" flu etc. Assumptions that it's because the virus is heat sensitive so that transmission via fomite is reduced are also IMO unlikely, with related SARS Cov - 1, then lab tests showed that there was a large decrease in survival of the virus on warmer surfaces, but really only when they got quite hot - a big reduction from days the surfaces are infectious at 20c to hours at 40 degrees, but surfaces even in the tropics don't sit at 40c unless they're in the sun, and anyway if a likely mode of transmission is droplet and P2P contact, then even if that reduced things slightly, it's not likely to eliminate epidemic potential.

I think those two unusual patterns are related.

In the first world - the almost complete lack of cases in infants and children and zero fatalities could be due to cross-immunity from "childhood" infections. The low infection and CFR for young people could be due to lasting immunity, or due to reinfection of parents of children with those childhood bugs.

In the third-world with poorer sanitation, there may be a higher level of immunity in the population due to constant circulation of mild illnesses which are the same of similar viruses as cause "childhood" infections in the first world.

Please pick holes in my amateur hypothesis with amateur (or pro) peer review.

alexx

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#2432936 5-Mar-2020 09:21

After the harassment/cyberbullying of the family in the second case, it wouldn't surprise me if we don't hear a lot of details about the third case.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

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tdgeek

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#2432943 5-Mar-2020 09:30

alexx:

After the harassment/cyberbullying of the family in the second case, it wouldn't surprise me if we don't hear a lot of details about the third case.

One would assume its because they came back from a known risk country and didnt self isolate upon arrival. But yes, I expect we will just hear its a male or female and in xxx town. I hope we hear the source and whats going on with that source

Zepanda66

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#2432948 5-Mar-2020 09:37

Universal and MGM have delayed the new James Bond movie to November due to the virus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-51744374

http://www.speedtest.net/result/7315955530.png

wellygary

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#2432949 5-Mar-2020 09:44

Zepanda66:

Universal and MGM have delayed the new James Bond movie to November due to the virus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-51744374

Having the Title "No time to Die" probably was a factor in that decision.....

tdgeek

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#2432956 5-Mar-2020 09:54

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/03/coronavirus-the-airports-key-to-spreading-covid-19.html

Its not really about airports, its about handwashing. The more I read the more its about handwashing. Virus from eyes to hands as you rub your eyes, touch someone or something, its on soemone elses hands, who rubs their eyes or mouth or nose. Its theoretically very easy to vastly limit community spread, by doing what we should be doing anyway

I feel we need an ongoing TV campaign to reinforce this, as it doesnt require time, or money, to make a difference

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#2432963 5-Mar-2020 10:01

tdgeek:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/03/coronavirus-the-airports-key-to-spreading-covid-19.html

Its not really about airports, its about handwashing. The more I read the more its about handwashing. Virus from eyes to hands as you rub your eyes, touch someone or something, its on soemone elses hands, who rubs their eyes or mouth or nose. Its theoretically very easy to vastly limit community spread, by doing what we should be doing anyway

<
p>I feel we need an ongoing TV campaign to reinforce this, as it doesnt require time, or money, to make a difference

Agree, and it's a very good idea to have some hand sanitiser with you for when it's not practical to wash your hands with soap and water. Oh yes, that's right, even though it's very important, you can't buy hand sanitiser anywhere so you become reliant on dubious home brews, which may or may not be good for you!! Oh yes, NZ is really well prepared for this event!!!

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Fred99

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#2432965 5-Mar-2020 10:05

Zepanda66:

Universal and MGM have delayed the new James Bond movie to November due to the virus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-51744374

LOL - almost funny that something so banal hit the news.

Italy has closed all schools and universities until mid-March, the German Minister of Health has declared that Covid-19 is a global pandemic, and exponential growth in cases is occurring outside China, a doubling in case numbers every 4 days - and it's actually worse than that as a lot of cases are in the 80+ countries where containment has been effective - so far anyway.

Fred99

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#2432973 5-Mar-2020 10:22

tdgeek:

...handwashing...

I feel we need an ongoing TV campaign to reinforce this, as it doesnt require time, or money, to make a difference

Absolutely true. Start doing this regularly and habitually right now - do not wait until we have confirmed outbreaks in NZ.

tdgeek

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#2432976 5-Mar-2020 10:23

frednz:
tdgeek:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/03/coronavirus-the-airports-key-to-spreading-covid-19.html

Its not really about airports, its about handwashing. The more I read the more its about handwashing. Virus from eyes to hands as you rub your eyes, touch someone or something, its on soemone elses hands, who rubs their eyes or mouth or nose. Its theoretically very easy to vastly limit community spread, by doing what we should be doing anyway

<
p>I feel we need an ongoing TV campaign to reinforce this, as it doesnt require time, or money, to make a difference

Agree, and it's a very good idea to have some hand sanitiser with you for when it's not practical to wash your hands with soap and water. Oh yes, that's right, even though it's very important, you can't buy hand sanitiser anywhere so you become reliant on dubious home brews, which may or may not be good for you!! Oh yes, NZ is really well prepared for this event!!!

Yes, thats a fact unfortunately. Its a global issue, humans over reacted. MikeB4 had a recipe based in isopropyl alcohol a few pages back

MikeB4

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#2432982 5-Mar-2020 10:35

Home made sanitiser should be made with Isopropyl Alcohol greater than 90% proof alcohol. Mix with say Aloe Vera gel or similar, this will give it a consistency and "stickyness" to allow the alcohol to do its thing. The Aloe Vera will also have the benefit of helping stop your hands drying and cracking.

Edit: do it in the cooler evening to slow evaporation and don't smoke.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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