2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 889 | 890 | 891 | 892 | 893 | 894 | 895 | 896 | 897 | 898 | 899 | ... | 2423

20147 posts

Uber Geek

#2541254 14-Aug-2020 18:45

heavenlywild: This lock down method of any level is financially unsustainable. I don't have a solution but how many times can we afford to do this?

This is why keeping the borders water tight was so important. We need to throw everything at it, or we restrict the numbers entering at any one time substantially, and use proper quarantine facilities so it is run very securely. In Australia, they have an investigation as to how the virus escaped their managed isolation facility, but it appears they do keep people in their room. The financial and health costs by not going into lockdown, and trying to live with the virus won't work, because we don't have the health capacity and ICU beds that they have in other countries. So to live with it and try and control it, will be a terrible environment to live in. Mass death, businesses not being able to operate properly etc. NZ is in the position to eliminate it each time an outbreak happens, so why wouldn't we do this , especially if the costs are lower than living with it?.

Theoretically we shouldn't ave had to go into level 3 if cases had been picked up earlier, but this outbreak looks to be at least several generations old, based on someone having the virus at the end of last month. But it appears people have been ignoring advice, such as going to work and traveling when sick, and not getting tested if they have cold and flu symptoms. I could see this was going to happened unfortunately, as this is what happens with complacency and the narrative in level 1. At the moment it seems to be a 'wait and see' approach.

But I think ALL of NZ needs to start wearing masks when going into shops or public transport etc. Hairdressers for example should be using them, when at least some aren't. It has been proven to decrease the R0 rate in Victoria. Very few currently wearing them in my area.

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#2541299 14-Aug-2020 19:11

Its a balance of evils.
Certainly in Auckland we have a lot of people that are in vulnerable categories, pre-existing conditions like obesity.
Heart-murmuring much from a mild bout of rheumatic fever when you were a child, you may not even know yet.
Its a bit of a laundry list the pre-existing condition thing.
Its why insurance companies love it.
A young but enthusiastic vaper ?
You may not know this is starting to appear as a concern in USA now cases have moved to young and invulnerable.
There are many outcomes between asymptomatic infection with full recovery and death as well, which are damaging long term to economy and you.

I don't think NZers are the type to party like its 1999 while the country burns,( Its not Florida ) so don't count on a vibrant economy if you do nothing.
All this would drag on business over a long period of time as significant % of population who can remain indoors and stop spending.
Older people fall out of the economy completely, will hit local tourism opportunities.
Overseas tourism, its a long perilous trip, will you really see large volumes making the trip while we are burning bright.
Export industries would have constant threat as our case numbers accelerate and make overseas news, what happens to our primary clean and green value.
We have many markets that need little encouragement to engage in protectionism.

Its not easy to balance everything.

However while we do have money, a vibrant export economy, elimination buys us future choices, time for better exit options.
Either better treatments so we don't burn in and outbreak if we do the relax conditions thing, or vaccines of which there are many approaches.

Lets not Russian our decision. Prematurely give up.

Handle9

11386 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2541302 14-Aug-2020 19:17

Anyone who thinks this is the last lockdown under an elimination strategy is delusional. There are too many moving parts to this.

If this outbreak is eliminated there will be another one at some point. It's not possible to keep COVID out indefinitely so the country either needs to be prepared for sporadic lock downs or consider a different strategy.

ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#2541306 14-Aug-2020 19:30

antonknee:

heavenlywild:

I understand that but any day above L2 ruins livelihoods. Yes, we need to save lives but there needs to be a balance.

There'll be many more outbreaks unfortunately.

And what is that balance?

If it was your family member or friend who died from this virus, how would you feel?

Dead and sick people do not spend money either, and places without lockdowns or with weak lockdowns are suffering very, very badly economically.

Level 3 is a much higher rate of activity than at level 4 - a lot of business can still operate in some form, and it's likely this will give us the certainty of being back at level 1.

An 80 y/o dying prematurely would be worth $231,000. A 70 y/o dying prematurely $561,000. [Both relative to average life expectancy].

Shutting down Auckland to Level 3 currently costs more than $60m per day according to ASB.

How many QALY does it take to justify economic suicide?

Its not just health, as our "learned" Prime Minister claims, it is a balance of health and economics.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

meesham

973 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2541310 14-Aug-2020 19:37

[Mod edit (MF): the story quote and commented in this posted was recanted after more facts came to light.

PolicyGuy

1726 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Lifetime subscriber

#2541318 14-Aug-2020 20:10

Batman:

watching the news (TV1) and said a cook island GP tests positive in AKL - anyone knows if they have linked him to the cluster? the news said the only link so far is his clinic is near Americold

It seems he's the one case in hospital, who is "probably" linked to the existing cluster.

nzkiwiman

2585 posts

Uber Geek

Subscriber

#2541326 14-Aug-2020 20:16

Well I am glad that I was wrong and we don't go into a further lockdown; though things may come to light over the weekend or early next week which will change things.

Equinox IT

Cloud spending continues to surge globally, but most organisations haven’t made the changes necessary to maximise the value and cost-efficiency benefits of their cloud investments. Download the whitepaper From Overspend to Advantage now.

freitasm

BDFL - Memuneh
79263 posts

Uber Geek

Administrator

ID Verified

Trusted

Geekzone

Lifetime subscriber

#2541331 14-Aug-2020 20:20

@heavenlywild:

I understand that but any day above L2 ruins livelihoods. Yes, we need to save lives but there needs to be a balance.

There'll be many more outbreaks unfortunately.

Please nominate someone in your family that you would be ok with dying if the lockdown wasn't implemented.

No?

freitasm

BDFL - Memuneh
79263 posts

Uber Geek

Administrator

ID Verified

Trusted

Geekzone

Lifetime subscriber

#2541335 14-Aug-2020 20:23

[Mod edit (MF): the story quote and commented in this posted was recanted after more facts came to light.

Zepanda66

533 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2541341 14-Aug-2020 20:43

Handle9: Anyone who thinks this is the last lockdown under an elimination strategy is delusional. There are too many moving parts to this.

If this outbreak is eliminated there will be another one at some point. It's not possible to keep COVID out indefinitely so the country either needs to be prepared for sporadic lock downs or consider a different strategy.

Well the point of these lockdowns is to buy us time until a vaccine. With the first lockdown being a success we got 102 days closer to a vaccine without an outbreak than any other country. Thats a huge milestone to be proud of. We may not have to wait long for a vaccine either. Especially If the Oxford vaccine sticks to its schedule and completes phase 3 trials this month it could be ready as soon as September. So if we can get this outbreak under control which I think we can well be in a much better position to deploy the vaccine quickly without interruptions of dealing with a outbreak.

http://www.speedtest.net/result/7315955530.png

Scott3

3964 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2541356 14-Aug-2020 21:27

ockel:

An 80 y/o dying prematurely would be worth $231,000. A 70 y/o dying prematurely $561,000. [Both relative to average life expectancy].

Shutting down Auckland to Level 3 currently costs more than $60m per day according to ASB.

How many QALY does it take to justify economic suicide?

Its not just health, as our "learned" Prime Minister claims, it is a balance of health and economics.

When assessing QALY, we also need to consider the loss of quality of life of those that recover. sounds like some of the recovered have permanently damaged lungs.

We also need to consider that operating with the virus has a significant cost on the economy.

Have in laws in the Philippines. They basically gave up on their lock-down, and operated in a new-normal for a couple of month's. They (Metro manila) subsequently have had to go back into lock-down as their hospital system exceeded it's capacity

Even without lockdown in the Philipines economic activity is significantly reduced. People are scared, so minimizing their exposures to others, spending less money, slowing the economy.

Could look at the USA as well, Despite lockdowns ending, economic cost is high.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2541359 14-Aug-2020 21:37

Handle9: Anyone who thinks this is the last lockdown under an elimination strategy is delusional. There are too many moving parts to this.

If this outbreak is eliminated there will be another one at some point. It's not possible to keep COVID out indefinitely so the country either needs to be prepared for sporadic lock downs or consider a different strategy.

I'm comfortable with the strategy as it is at the present time.

We're hopefully 6 months from a vaccine, there's a reasonable compromise between the rights of residents to return, the understanding that if you want to go gallivanting around the planet putting NZ at risk for business or personal reasons, then you should pay the cost of quarantine yourself - but in some cases exemption from costs on compassionate grounds is available. The NZ economy is doing OK, a major outbreak would be detrimental to the economy regardless of mitigation measures.

Lets see how this lockdown for only 1/3 of the population goes. I'm reasonably confident that it'll be nailed, and we'll be back to level 1 / 2 soon.

freitasm

BDFL - Memuneh
79263 posts

Uber Geek

Administrator

ID Verified

Trusted

Geekzone

Lifetime subscriber

#2541360 14-Aug-2020 21:38

Press release:

Govt to protect jobs and businesses with extra support

The Government is taking action to support businesses and protect jobs following today’s decision to extend the existing public health measures across the country to stamp out COVID-19.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson said Cabinet has made an in-principle decision to extend the wage subsidy, and modify the COVID-19 Sick Leave Scheme to make it more accessible. Details will be finalised over the weekend and announced on Monday.

An extension to the mortgage deferral scheme has also been agreed in-principle as part of the plan to support households after the existing scheme expires on 27 September. Details, including the length of the extension, are being finalised and will be announced next week.

“The latest COVID-19 outbreak is obviously disappointing, especially for businesses that have just got up and running again. But we have a plan in place to deal with it. We have always said that the best economic response is a strong health response. We have moved quickly to identify cases and contact-trace as part of the resurgence plan announced by the Prime Minister in July,” Grant Robertson said.

“An important part of our plan is our decision in July to ring-fence the remaining $14 billion in the COVID Fund in case there were further outbreaks. This was so we could ramp up the health response quickly, and support affected businesses and protect jobs as we undertook the necessary public health measures to stamp out the virus. There is also money remaining in the existing wage subsidy allocation that will help meet the costs of this further extension.”

Grant Robertson said the Government has decided that the extended wage subsidy will apply nationwide, particularly given the significance of Auckland’s economy to the wider country, and due to the impact Alert Level 2 would have on sectors like hospitality and retail.

“These public health measures are affecting businesses around the country. This includes tourism operators who are expecting visitors from Auckland, companies that supply Auckland businesses, and the hospitality and retail sectors in other parts of the country now operating under Level 2.”

The criteria and eligibility requirements for the extension to the wage subsidy will be similar to previous criteria. Given the different nature of the latest outbreak, the Government is taking the weekend to finalise the details. The extension will be available to businesses that have already finished receiving the subsidy, as long as they meet the criteria, and it will cover the period that the current Level 3 restrictions stay in place.

Advice from MSD is that the extension to the scheme will be able to be operational within five days of the decision.

“This is also a reminder that the existing extension to the wage subsidy remains open to applications until September 1. Businesses that haven’t yet accessed that scheme should reassess if they now meet the criteria, following the recent increase in Alert Levels,” Grant Robertson said.

“Cabinet also agreed in-principle to look at modifying the COVID Sick Leave Scheme. We are very aware that those who are required to self-isolate may be concerned if they do not have any sick leave entitlements left or the business they work for is not eligible for the scheme under current settings.

“We want everyone to feel confident that if they return a positive test that they will be looked after. Final details of these modifications will also be decided on Monday,” Grant Robertson said.

freitasm

BDFL - Memuneh
79263 posts

Uber Geek

Administrator

ID Verified

Trusted

Geekzone

Lifetime subscriber

#2541361 14-Aug-2020 21:39

Press release:

More Police deployed for COVID efforts

More Police are being deployed to the frontline to help manage the COVID response, after the graduation today of 56 new officers.

“The ceremonies for the graduation of Wing 340 at the Royal New Zealand Police College were trimmed to take account of new Alert Level 2 restrictions in Wellington,” said Police Minister Stuart Nash.

“The newest officers to join the frontline took their constables’ oaths without the usual presence of family and guests, to observe limits on mass gatherings. Instead the ceremony was live streamed on a private YouTube link for whanau and loved ones.

“They will be deployed all over the country. Twenty-two new constables are posted to the greater Auckland/Tamaki Makaurau area. Reports from the first day of Alert Level Three indicate the vast majority of residents in our largest city have responded well to the new restrictions.

“As at 7.00am today, Police and other support staff had stopped 17,000 vehicles at ten checkpoints around the Auckland boundaries. Just 312 were turned around. Police advise that most people were co-operative and responded positively to requests.

“In the greater Auckland region, as at 7.00am, Police had carried out 852 COVID-related patrols and checks. These included reassurance patrols at essential businesses like supermarkets, responses to complaints about potential breaches, and checks on other businesses.

“Police enforcement of both Alert Levels Three and Two follows the same pattern as our earlier lockdown. Police take a graduated approach where they engage, encourage and educate people about the COVID restrictions, before moving to more formal warnings or even arrests.

“Wing 340 is the 38th Police recruit wing to graduate since the Coalition Government took office. In that time, 2,309 new Police officers have graduated and been deployed to the frontline.

“It takes the total number of full time Police, after turnover and attrition, to approximately 10,167 officers. It represents approximately 1,329 extra officers since the start of the 17/18 financial year, a 15 per cent increase.

“The rollout of new Police is changing the face of modern Policing and making it a more diverse organisation. There are more female officers, Maori, Pasifika and Asian officers, and officers with a wide range of skills and competencies.

“We are keeping up the momentum to train and deploy new Police to improve community safety and enhance the wellbeing of New Zealanders,” Mr Nash said.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2541362 14-Aug-2020 21:42

Zepanda66:

Handle9: Anyone who thinks this is the last lockdown under an elimination strategy is delusional. There are too many moving parts to this.

If this outbreak is eliminated there will be another one at some point. It's not possible to keep COVID out indefinitely so the country either needs to be prepared for sporadic lock downs or consider a different strategy.

Well the point of these lockdowns is to buy us time until a vaccine. With the first lockdown being a success we got 102 days closer to a vaccine without an outbreak than any other country. Thats a huge milestone to be proud of. We may not have to wait long for a vaccine either. Especially If the Oxford vaccine sticks to its schedule and completes phase 3 trials this month it could be ready as soon as September. So if we can get this outbreak under control which I think we can well be in a much better position to deploy the vaccine quickly without interruptions of dealing with a outbreak.

I think September is extremely optimistic, but if we nail this cluster, then maybe one or two similar events between now and a vaccine rollout, NZ will have led the world (and it's absolutely possible we will).

1 | ... | 889 | 890 | 891 | 892 | 893 | 894 | 895 | 896 | 897 | 898 | 899 | ... | 2423