2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2541829 15-Aug-2020 18:15

It is human nature to find heros and villains in this type of situation, and the media is also good at it.

The Mintier did say today, that at the moment they are concentrating at looking at the problem at hand and looking forward at this stage. NO doubt investigations of the border will occur, as is happening in Australia.

IMO we do need to find the hole where the virus appears to have come in, and that is fairly urgent. The Coldstore cases in Melbourne and the link to NZs is an interesting development.

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#2541874 15-Aug-2020 18:28

[Mod edit (MF): the story quote and commented in this posted was recanted after more facts came to light.

Hemi88

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#2541878 15-Aug-2020 18:30

mattwnz:
It is human nature to find heros and villains in this type of situation, and the media is also good at it.

The Mintier did say today, that at the moment they are concentrating at looking at the problem at hand and looking forward at this stage. NO doubt investigations of the border will occur, as is happening in Australia.

IMO we do need to find the hole where the virus appears to have come in, and that is fairly urgent. The Coldstore cases in Melbourne and the link to NZs is an interesting development.

with Melbourne americold case there must be a link

mattwnz

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#2541881 15-Aug-2020 18:34

Hemi88:

with Melbourne americold case there must be a link

Yes, it does seem a bit too coincidental, considering in NZ, it all seems to point to the coldstore being the centre of this outbreak. It is interesting how some experts think it is unlikely, but some others have said it is certainly possible. Even the MOH see it as a plausible possibility, and I haven't heard the DG say that it is very unlikely.

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#2541882 15-Aug-2020 18:36

mattwnz:

IMO we do need to find the hole where the virus appears to have come in, and that is fairly urgent. The Coldstore cases in Melbourne and the link to NZs is an interesting development.

At this stage I'd put is down as an interesting coincidence. At least with Aus cooperation, then we'll get genome matching. If it had been another country then much less likely they'd bother. Even if fomite transmission through chilled/frozen food turns out to be a thing, it won't be big thing in countries where the normal mode of transmission is as a respiratory virus. This quite different from Hepatitis A for example, where infection via contaminated food/water is a main mode of transmission, and the virus survives freezing.

I hate to say it because every time WHO or another authority states there's "no evidence that xyz happens", and it turns out that it does happen, then people accuse WHO of misinformation. There's no evidence that transmission as suggested happens. If the genomes do match, then it's "some" evidence, but equivocal.

As for the criticism of AB and the response. IIRC when border quarantine was set up the expectation was that the capacity needed was for a rolling ~3,000. So now it's ~7,000 at any given time. Someone made an incorrect assessment ("guess"). So what could possibly go wrong?

The solution would have been to close the borders / limit numbers, and not increase them until all systems were failsafe.

Given that as soon as someone couldn't get to a funeral on time - it was front page news, then there was immense pressure to not do what was probably the smartest thing to do if what's probably been the cause of the present cluster was to be avoided. I'm conflicted about it - but blaming the government and officials is pretty dumb. We've done extremely well by any comparison - even if perfect would have clearly been better.

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#2541904 15-Aug-2020 19:13

mattwnz:

Hemi88:

with Melbourne americold case there must be a link

Yes, it does seem a bit too coincidental, considering in NZ, it all seems to point to the coldstore being the centre of this outbreak. It is interesting how some experts think it is unlikely, but some others have said it is certainly possible. Even the MOH see it as a plausible possibility, and I haven't heard the DG say that it is very unlikely.

Thats been the theme all along on many fronts. As if there is another agenda. It does stay viable frozen. AB says its unlikely. Americold say there has been no staff or predict go MEL to AKL. The latter means its a no. Hard to know. If its a random case it seems unlikely that the cases we now have are only linked to that, but that seems to be what we have

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#2541932 15-Aug-2020 20:09

tdgeek:

It does stay viable frozen. AB says its unlikely. Americold say there has been no staff or predict go MEL to AKL. The latter means its a no.

If there's been no MEL-AKL link then if the genome matches they would have to look for supplier commonalities between the Australian and New Zealand branches but it seems unlikely. Worth checking out though as if multi-day refrigerated fomite transmission is possible then anti-transmission plans will have to be altered accordingly.

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#2541939 15-Aug-2020 20:31

B.1.1.1

"strong links" to the genomes of coronavirus in United Kingdom and Australia. And B.1.1.1 is also present in countries including Peru, Uruguay, South Africa, Switzerland and Bangladesh.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356833

From that list we have had known positives Australia (although no direct relation in the samples), Switzerland, India (not clear if that includes the neighbours) and Africa.

One would hope the genome cross-checks for the previous random samples they did go back and check, were still available from those. And not 'oops we missed a chance'

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#2541940 15-Aug-2020 20:32

tieke:

tdgeek:

It does stay viable frozen. AB says its unlikely. Americold say there has been no staff or predict go MEL to AKL. The latter means its a no.

If there's been no MEL-AKL link then if the genome matches they would have to look for supplier commonalities between the Australian and New Zealand branches but it seems unlikely. Worth checking out though as if multi-day refrigerated fomite transmission is possible then anti-transmission plans will have to be altered accordingly.

I'll just wait till they work it out. Genome doesn't yet match MIQ, Americold say its not them, it cant be existing CT

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#2541942 15-Aug-2020 20:37

Oblivian:

B.1.1.1
"strong links" to the genomes of coronavirus in United Kingdom and Australia. And B.1.1.1 is also present in countries including Peru, Uruguay, South Africa, Switzerland and Bangladesh.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356833

From that list we have had known positives Australia (although no direct relation in the samples), Switzerland, India (not clear if that includes the neighbours) and Africa.

One would hope the genome cross-checks for the previous random samples they did go back and check, were still available from those. And not 'oops we missed a chance'

B.1.1.1. is not the genome sequence for any coronavirus case in managed quarantine

Does tip the scales to Americold somewhat.

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#2541943 15-Aug-2020 20:47

tdgeek:

B.1.1.1. is not the genome sequence for any coronavirus case in managed quarantine

Does tip the scales to Americold somewhat.

I'm not sure if it's been made totally clear if ALL the tests from miq have/were forwarded. Or it's referring to new public found ones. It seemed a number of times asking about the details for the sample checks had been methodically dodged and reassured by the generic 'at this time there is no link'.

Would love the straight up answer if ALL samples were genome checked. For all we know, as their previous country of origin was known not every sample was kept or analysed in such depth. And at first when asked it seemed to sound like that was the case.

/edit and as of 12th. It was worded that not all could be. <no reasoning>

https://youtu.be/TccbsJD9k3A?t=913

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#2541945 15-Aug-2020 21:05

I thought Americold had been ruled out as the source as the infected person who works there isn't patient zero for this cluster. If this is the case the infection came from another source.

I'd be interested to know if Winston Peters was flying kite when he said it was a quarantine breach or whether he has some hard data. I haven't been watching the media all that closely but I'm unaware anyone has come out to refuse his claim.

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#2541947 15-Aug-2020 21:09

Technofreak:

I'd be interested to know if Winston Peters was flying kite when he said it was a quarantine breach or whether he has some hard data. I haven't been watching the media all that closely but I'm unaware anyone has come out to refuse his claim.

There is an in-depth 'this is how it happened' on socials. They felt the need to back up the claim with 'this is what Winston was talking about'. But it also pointed to a media coverup. So take it as you will.

As a result, they made this earlier