2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2557396 5-Sep-2020 11:21

shk292:

Where else could it possibly have come from? We have thousands of inbound travelers every week, law of probability says that we are going to get infections from this, it's just a matter of how often. Sure, total closure is problematic but maybe we could reduce that number significantly and in doing so, increase the time between outbreaks.

The first case was from Americold. They have it in Melbourne. While frozen contact was largely dismissed as unlikely, its known, and reported recently that it can stay very viable. While as Fred says, no matching genome is not 100% guaranteed you would have thought that you would get a clear match from the many infections we imported.

I think the incoming has dropped a lot, so that it matches those leaving MIQ

In any case, what we did in March worked, what we are doing now is working. Reduce the ability to find a host, that works.

freitasm

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#2557399 5-Sep-2020 11:35

Guess where the Sturgis motorcycle rally was two weeks ago? "South Dakota is nation's top hot spot for COVID-19; 2,143 test positive in last week"

Anyone saying New Zealand is doing wrong, is a covidiot.

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#2557401 5-Sep-2020 11:36

A big issue coming up will be when we're closer to vaccine being available, there's going to intense pressure to open things up, but if Phase 3 trials haven't been completed to the extent of knowing efficacy across the population, and with complications (such as now it's also known that some people can get infected twice), extreme caution is needed.

If a vaccine had high efficacy - say like measles vaccine, as well as high uptake, then that would be fantastic. But if efficacy is 50% (a figure that I believe FDA has indicated as a cutoff for approval), then there's still a big problem, with 50% immune then that's not enough to halt sustained community transmission unless other measures are maintained - especially with anti-vaxxers reducing that herd immunity from a possible 50% to say 40%.

They'll have to know efficacy of the vaccine in vulnerable groups (ie elderly, those with other health conditions).

Last I read about Phase II trials with the Oxford vaccine, reported side effects were more than with ie the annual 'flu shot - where side effects happen - but are relatively uncommon. That'll get the anti-vaxxers off side and ranting.

It won't be safe if everybody suddenly threw out all precautions and went out eating drinking and being merry in expectation that a soon to be released vaccine was about to solve the world's problems.

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#2557408 5-Sep-2020 11:55

freitasm:

Russian scientists have published the first report on their coronavirus vaccine, saying early tests showed signs of an immune response.

Russia has the same problem as the USA.

What the scientists say and what the politicians say aren't consistent - if you'd believed what presumably came from the Kremlin then in the media, Russia had the vaccine sorted and ready to roll out - leading the world.
Their scientists don't seem to agree.

I wonder who the stupidest will be. US leaders sideline experts like Fauci, bring in non-expert shills with "Doctor" in their title, and use them to wage a propaganda campaign against science.

Russian experts not supporting the Kremlin's line possibly face a worse fate than being ignored and verbally abused, but we'll see.

Scott3

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#2557411 5-Sep-2020 12:04

tdgeek:

shk292:

Better to close the international border and cancel all inbound flights than seal off Auckland. This is only happening in Auckland because that's where the vast majority of inbound passengers arrive.

You could do that and orphan 40,000 Kiwis and residents. Genome shows it didn't come from the border as it doesnt match the other border infections genomes.

It is widely thought that it did come from the border. Although there has been no genomic link to known cases in MIQ, there are plenty of other route it could have got past the border:

NZ based air crew - No isolation period of covid-19 test required on return to NZ with Low or medium risk. Only a single test and 48hours self isolation for high risk (but allowed to fly domestically prior to isolation). Link
Overseas based air crew - They take a crew bus to a normal (not managed isolation) hotel which may also have other guests. Plenty of chance to infect the bus driver, hotel staff, or other guests, especially in light of the maintenance worker getting sick suspected from using an elevator after a contagious person. Info as per above link.
Diplomats - exempt from isolation - have started clusters offshore
Marine crew going directly to a ship that is about to leave nz. - Exempt from requirements - could infect somebody on a taxi ride, domestic flight etc.
People in manage isolation who returned a positive test infected, but sufficient sample for genomic sequencing was not returned.
People in manage isolation who were non symptomatic, infected and refused a test, and as such spent 28 days in the hotel, but passed the infection on in that time.
People who were tested in managed isolation but had an incubation time in excess of 12 days (I think a 26 day incubation is the longest reported)
People who returned a false negitive result at day 12 (I think the PCR test is about 95% accurate, so one + such case would be statically expected)
Staff who entered managed isolation facilities some weeks ago, prior to the testing being rolled out. Antidotes of police officers being used to cover staff shortages, then going straight back to normal duties.
Airside workers & bus drivers who worked prior to the testing rollout.
Illegal border crossings - would be naive to assume we have had zero of these - We kinda rely on distance to prevent this, but distance is no barrier to the well resourced.
surface contamination on the likes of air freighted courier packages

I think the high trust setup we have for air crew poses the highest risk. Note that only recently have crew been required to wear masks while in passenger areas.

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#2557423 5-Sep-2020 13:05

Ministry of Health confirms second [in as many days] COVID-19 related death in Auckland

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/ministry-health-confirms-second-covid-19-related-death-auckland

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#2557430 5-Sep-2020 13:28

freitasm:
"Coronavirus: Russian vaccine shows signs of immune response"

Russian scientists have published the first report on their coronavirus vaccine, saying early tests showed signs of an immune response.

The report published by medical journal The Lancet said every participant developed antibodies to fight the virus and had no serious side effects.

Russia licensed the vaccine for local use in August, the first country to do so and before data had been published.

Experts say the trials were too small to prove effectiveness and safety.

The participants - aged between 18 and 60 - were monitored for 42 days and all of them developed antibodies within three weeks. Among the most common side effects were headaches and joint pain.

The trials were open label and not randomised, meaning there was no placebo and the volunteers were aware they were receiving the vaccine.

"Large, long-term trials including a placebo comparison, and further monitoring are needed to establish the long-term safety and effectiveness of the vaccine for preventing Covid-19 infection," the report said.

Quite easy to find out. Don't need to be a rocket scientist.

Vaccinate, send them to a covid party, half vaccinated half no vaccine, see who gets covid.

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#2557439 5-Sep-2020 14:24

The MOH cannot even get their update right!

From now on their website with the figures for today, but still yesterdays date!

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#2557448 5-Sep-2020 15:14

tdgeek:

shk292:Where else could it possibly have come from? We have thousands of inbound travellers every week, law of probability says that we are going to get infections from this, it's just a matter of how often. Sure, total closure is problematic but maybe we could reduce that number significantly and in doing so, increase the time between outbreaks.

The first case was from Americold. They have it in Melbourne. While frozen contact was largely dismissed as unlikely, its known, and reported recently that it can stay very viable. While as Fred says, no matching genome is not 100% guaranteed you would have thought that you would get a clear match from the many infections we imported...........

Question: Is it possible, however unlikely, for a mutation to of occurred here in NZ ? or do we just have to smaller a base (1400 positives) and not enough mixing ? [virology and epidemiology were not my nursing speciality]

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

dejadeadnz

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#2557451 5-Sep-2020 15:18

The thing that gets me with the current situation in Auckland is how some people just utterly refuse to modify their lifestyles to lower their risk of exposure. And the people who often refuse to do so are of the demographic who stand to be most affected. In terms of general observations, I consider most of the so called "social distancing" in a lot of eateries to be nothing short of illusory. Really everyone should be out in masks and minimise instances of going out for a few weeks. It's not that much to ask.

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#2557454 5-Sep-2020 15:38

tdgeek:

The first case was from Americold. They have it in Melbourne. While frozen contact was largely dismissed as unlikely, its known, and reported recently that it can stay very viable. While as Fred says, no matching genome is not 100% guaranteed you would have thought that you would get a clear match from the many infections we imported.

Only ~60% of border infections can be genome sequenced.

They don't know.

https://theconversation.com/genome-sequencing-tells-us-the-auckland-outbreak-is-a-single-cluster-except-for-one-case-144721

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#2557482 5-Sep-2020 16:08

dejadeadnz:

The thing that gets me with the current situation in Auckland is how some people just utterly refuse to modify their lifestyles to lower their risk of exposure. And the people who often refuse to do so are of the demographic who stand to be most affected. In terms of general observations, I consider most of the so called "social distancing" in a lot of eateries to be nothing short of illusory. Really everyone should be out in masks and minimise instances of going out for a few weeks. It's not that much to ask.

I'd wager they'd be a subset of the age group, but who rely on commercial radio "jock-news", Facebook, and NZ Herald "opinion pieces" for general news and information, and will claim that they're "well informed".

freitasm

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#2557527 5-Sep-2020 16:25

@msukiwi:

The MOH cannot even get their update right!

It looks fine for me. Are sure it's not a cached version on your computer? Press CTRL-F5 to refresh?

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#2557535 5-Sep-2020 16:35

Morons protesting again.

Kids, pay attention at school or you might become an idiot like these people.

msukiwi

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#2557536 5-Sep-2020 16:37

It was refreshed. They must have finally corrected it.

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