MH370 - Call for Search & Rescue Help

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#1030713 24-Apr-2014 16:56

I don't think they will ever find it now. Even if something washes up on a beach, it is only going to confirm a rough area that it may have crashed. The problem is that they have promised to never give up searching, but I think at some stage they may have to give up on actively searching unless new information comes to hand, due to costs. But without wreckage, it leaves so many things in the air, especially as to where the fault lies. But it has shown some major holes in the systems, which allows a plane to disappear in the 21st century, when we can send people to the moon, and track robots on mars.

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#1030714 24-Apr-2014 16:57

who pays for the costs?

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#1030719 24-Apr-2014 17:02

National governments.

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#1030725 24-Apr-2014 17:20

mattwnz: But it has shown some major holes in the systems, which allows a plane to disappear in the 21st century, when we can send people to the moon, and track robots on mars.

Yes, it's been a pretty good test of early warning/detection capabilities throughout Asia.

Who would have guessed what a mess most of their systems are.

That India's Andaman Islands Early warning Radar was turned off to save money? That Malaysians weren't monitoring in real time? That Indonesia likely didn't even see it, and China doesn't have the OTHR capability to see this happening, let alone how bad the sat coverage was...

It also shows that the Aussies push to enhance their Indian Ocean/Asia capabilities might have been a good idea.

I see they've just popped down to buy $12.4 billion of extra fighter jets and throw another billion at air defence bases in the NT.

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#1030728 24-Apr-2014 17:25

gzt: National governments.

Will only fund it so far though, and they don't want it to become a political issue.

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#1030832 24-Apr-2014 21:36

mattwnz: I don't think they will ever find it now. Even if something washes up on a beach, it is only going to confirm a rough area that it may have crashed. The problem is that they have promised to never give up searching, but I think at some stage they may have to give up on actively searching unless new information comes to hand, due to costs. But without wreckage, it leaves so many things in the air, especially as to where the fault lies. But it has shown some major holes in the systems, which allows a plane to disappear in the 21st century, when we can send people to the moon, and track robots on mars.

I disagree. I feel sure they'll recover the CVR and FDR. There will be a very strong desire to find these two items as they are the items most likely to reveal what went on. They have a known area to search.

Air France, AF 477 disappeared into the Atlantic Ocean in 1 July 2009 and even though they found some bits of wreckage a few days later the "Black boxes" were not found and recovered till nearly two years later on 1 May 2011. Other than some bits of wreckage they never got any locator pings to help them narrow down the search area.

sidestep: Yes, it's been a pretty good test of early warning/detection capabilities throughout Asia.

Who would have guessed what a mess most of their systems are.

That India's Andaman Islands Early warning Radar was turned off to save money? That Malaysians weren't monitoring in real time? That Indonesia likely didn't even see it, and China doesn't have the OTHR capability to see this happening, let alone how bad the sat coverage was...

I made a post about this earlier in the thread. Basically quoting what was said here

“Several nations will be embarrassed by how easy it is to trespass their airspace,” a retired British Royal Air Force pilot said. “You get what you pay for. And the world, by and large, does not pay.”

Other people saying similar things

David Learmont, an editor at aviation news site Flightglobal, doesn’t quite suggest that the plane landed somewhere, but he wonders if national governments involved are withholding information to hide their security vulnerabilities.

“Maybe these states’ air defences, like Malaysia’s, are not what they are cracked up to be,” he wrote. “And maybe they wouldn’t want the rest of the world to know that.”

Reuters found that maintaining full operation radar facilities can be “too expensive” for some countries, leaving gaps in their air systems.

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#1030837 24-Apr-2014 21:45

Technofreak:
mattwnz: I don't think they will ever find it now. Even if something washes up on a beach, it is only going to confirm a rough area that it may have crashed. The problem is that they have promised to never give up searching, but I think at some stage they may have to give up on actively searching unless new information comes to hand, due to costs. But without wreckage, it leaves so many things in the air, especially as to where the fault lies. But it has shown some major holes in the systems, which allows a plane to disappear in the 21st century, when we can send people to the moon, and track robots on mars.

I disagree. I feel sure they'll recover the CVR and FDR. There will be a very strong desire to find these two items as they are the items most likely to reveal what went on. They have a known area to search.

Air France, AF 477 disappeared into the Atlantic Ocean in 1 July 2009 and even though they found some bits of wreckage a few days later the "Black boxes" were not found and recovered till nearly two years later on 1 May 2011. Other than some bits of wreckage they never got any locator pings to help them narrow down the search area.

sidestep: Yes, it's been a pretty good test of early warning/detection capabilities throughout Asia.

Who would have guessed what a mess most of their systems are.

That India's Andaman Islands Early warning Radar was turned off to save money? That Malaysians weren't monitoring in real time? That Indonesia likely didn't even see it, and China doesn't have the OTHR capability to see this happening, let alone how bad the sat coverage was...

I made a post about this earlier in the thread. Basically quoting what was said here

“Several nations will be embarrassed by how easy it is to trespass their airspace,” a retired British Royal Air Force pilot said. “You get what you pay for. And the world, by and large, does not pay.”

Other people saying similar things

David Learmont, an editor at aviation news site Flightglobal, doesn’t quite suggest that the plane landed somewhere, but he wonders if national governments involved are withholding information to hide their security vulnerabilities.

“Maybe these states’ air defences, like Malaysia’s, are not what they are cracked up to be,” he wrote. “And maybe they wouldn’t want the rest of the world to know that.”

Reuters found that maintaining full operation radar facilities can be “too expensive” for some countries, leaving gaps in their air systems.

I had a brain wave - the assassination of OBL makes total sense! They just went in crashed their chopper, got a 2nd one, shot their man, grabbed ALL his computers and effects, left, before the Pakistani army had any clue.

Bingo!

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#1030890 24-Apr-2014 23:16

Technofreak:

I disagree. I feel sure they'll recover the CVR and FDR. There will be a very strong desire to find these two items as they are the items most likely to reveal what went on. They have a known area to search.

Air France, AF 477 disappeared into the Atlantic Ocean in 1 July 2009 and even though they found some bits of wreckage a few days later the "Black boxes" were not found and recovered till nearly two years later on 1 May 2011. Other than some bits of wreckage they never got any locator pings to help them narrow down the search area.

I hope you are right. In the air france case, they did have wreckage, so they did know the rough location of the flight recorders, but even then they still took two years to find them. The problem is that with this case, although they did hear pings, those pings could have potentiallt come from a huge distance away due to the way water deflects waves. I had heard that whales for instance can be heard thousands of kms away, and sounds can bounce off different layers of water.

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#1030930 25-Apr-2014 09:30

mattwnz:

I hope you are right. In the air france case, they did have wreckage, so they did know the rough location of the flight recorders, but even then they still took two years to find them. The problem is that with this case, although they did hear pings, those pings could have potentiallt come from a huge distance away due to the way water deflects waves. I had heard that whales for instance can be heard thousands of kms away, and sounds can bounce off different layers of water.

The pingers have a maximum range of about 7 km or less depending on the model. I'm pretty confident they're in the approximate area.

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#1030943 25-Apr-2014 10:12

I don't know much about pingers and sound in that frequency but I wonder what the signal to noise ratio was. (Remember they ruled out some other pings as coming from the ship that was towing the sound detector!)

Also I wonder how they can tell if that sound wave was generated by the box of mh370.

But again as I said this is not something I know anything about.

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#1030945 25-Apr-2014 10:14

On second thoughts the fact that the pings got weaker and then disappeared does sound consistent with the expected behaviour of the mh370 box. If it were random noise (if that were even possible) you'd expect the randomness to persist.

Here's hoping that the families will get some answers.

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#1031024 25-Apr-2014 12:10

joker97: I don't know much about pingers and sound in that frequency but I wonder what the signal to noise ratio was. (Remember they ruled out some other pings as coming from the ship that was towing the sound detector!)

Also I wonder how they can tell if that sound wave was generated by the box of mh370.

But again as I said this is not something I know anything about.

I don't think there is any way to be sure the pings came from the CVR or FDR of MH 370, in other words they don't have a unique identifying ping for each aircraft. However it is almost a certainty that they came from a CVR and and a FDR, the frequency that was heard matches the frequency used by the pingers used on "Black Boxes". As there are no other reported aircraft missing in that area it's highly likely those pings came from MH370.

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#1031040 25-Apr-2014 12:30

Technofreak:
mattwnz:

I hope you are right. In the air france case, they did have wreckage, so they did know the rough location of the flight recorders, but even then they still took two years to find them. The problem is that with this case, although they did hear pings, those pings could have potentiallt come from a huge distance away due to the way water deflects waves. I had heard that whales for instance can be heard thousands of kms away, and sounds can bounce off different layers of water.

The pingers have a maximum range of about 7 km or less depending on the model. I'm pretty confident they're in the approximate area.

I watched a sky documentary on it and they said that underwater the signals can travel significantly further, and deflect off sea layers at different angles , which means the signal may be in a significantly different area than they calculate it to be. The other major porblem is that the sea bed is made up of metres of silt, so it has probably sunk under that.

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#1031044 25-Apr-2014 12:43

mattwnz:
I watched a sky documentary on it and they said that underwater the signals can travel significantly further, and deflect off sea layers at different angles , which means the signal may be in a significantly different area than they calculate it to be. The other major porblem is that the sea bed is made up of metres of silt, so it has probably sunk under that.

I can find no information what so ever that suggests the signals can travel significantly further. I know it's not necessarily always accurate but look here for a start http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwater_locator_beacon

I don't place a lot of trust in news items.

I think the side scan sonar can see objects buried in silt.

Some of the experts in marine recovery seem pretty confident the black boxes will be found.

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#1032099 27-Apr-2014 16:33

Technofreak:
mattwnz:
I watched a sky documentary on it and they said that underwater the signals can travel significantly further, and deflect off sea layers at different angles , which means the signal may be in a significantly different area than they calculate it to be. The other major porblem is that the sea bed is made up of metres of silt, so it has probably sunk under that.

I can find no information what so ever that suggests the signals can travel significantly further. I know it's not necessarily always accurate but look here for a start http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwater_locator_beacon

I don't place a lot of trust in news items.

I think the side scan sonar can see objects buried in silt.

Some of the experts in marine recovery seem pretty confident the black boxes will be found.

CNN had an 'expert' discussing it with a video diagram showing how waves could bounce km's along layers of the sea. It is possibly one explaination as to why the chinese also picked up some signals many km's away, and they were so patchy. I think technology will need to improve before they will find it. They did eventually find the titanic, although they did have a rough location for it, but that wasn't as deep.

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