Donald Trump, US President #47, US President #45, convicted felon, twice impeached, four times indicted, liable of rape, convicted for financial fraud, guilty of hiding hush money payments to porn actress in attempt to influence 2016 elections

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Forums › Politics › Donald Trump, US President #47, US President #45, convicted felon, twice impeached, four times indicted, liable of rape, convicted for financial fraud, guilty of hiding hush money payments to porn actress in attempt to influence 2016 elections

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#1665963 8-Nov-2016 19:05

amiga500:

At 5.30 pm NZ time on Nov. 8, five thirty eight polls plus forecast, has the Senate 50.3 % Republican, and 49.7% Democrats to control the Senate. Couldn't be much closer than that.

There seems to be more momentum towards Republican in the Senate race than Presidential race. This might turn out to be the consolation prize for the GOP. Look forward to vote recounts & court battles

if the Senate is close.

Well, on the other hand, this guy - who has correctly predicted the last 5 elections - tips a Trump win with 87% certainty.

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amiga500

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#1666002 8-Nov-2016 19:58

Yep! That primary model must be one thing that worries Clinton. And the weather forecast is not great for the eastern USA tomorrow.

tdgeek

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#1666028 8-Nov-2016 20:21

SaltyNZ:

amiga500:

At 5.30 pm NZ time on Nov. 8, five thirty eight polls plus forecast, has the Senate 50.3 % Republican, and 49.7% Democrats to control the Senate. Couldn't be much closer than that.

There seems to be more momentum towards Republican in the Senate race than Presidential race. This might turn out to be the consolation prize for the GOP. Look forward to vote recounts & court battles

if the Senate is close.

Well, on the other hand, this guy - who has correctly predicted the last 5 elections - tips a Trump win with 87% certainty.

I glanced today that Clinton has a solid edge. But I would not be surprised at all with a Trump win. iPad is charged, sits next to my work box (I work from home).

We should have run a virtual sweep. Shall we?

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#1666120 8-Nov-2016 22:57

OK, here's my prediction. We are going to have a Brexit 2.0. I figure there are probably relatively many people who wouldn't normally come out to vote who are also the disaffected types most attracted by Trump. Also, I feel there are probably quite a few people who would never admit in public, but in secret are going to vote Trump because f*** the establishment, or whatever. On the flip side, nobody is going to say they will vote Trump but secretly want to vote Clinton.

So overall, I think the polls might be underestimating Trump's performance where it really counts, and he's going to be elected. It won't be a landslide, but I think the next day America is going to wake up to the same 'What the hell have we just done?' national shock that the UK went through after the Brexit vote.

TL;DR: Salty picks Trump by a narrow margin.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

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#1666129 8-Nov-2016 23:06

I'll go the opposing view to that, and say that Clinton by >5% of the popular vote. Trump will be thumped.

Reasoning for that is I suspect that polling is biased by many Latino/Black voters working shifts and not easily contactable, some who would have been Sanders voters that haven't got over what happened saying that they'll vote Trump despite the fact they'll vote Clinton or not vote, there will be women who'll vote for Clinton and not Trump at any cost despite not stating this in front of their partners or in polls, and that the combined averaged polls have all shown a swing for Clinton / against Trump over the past 48 hours.

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#1666137 8-Nov-2016 23:42

Trump surges to an early lead in New Hampshire by 32 votes to 25. Some tiny towns are allowed to start voting at 12 midnight. The very first results shown on Aljazeera had a whiteboard with 2 votes for Trump and 4 for Clinton. Apparently these are results from more than one tiny hamlet!