Ukraine War discussion

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#2875589 27-Feb-2022 08:00

Not sure I agree with this

The Polish and Swedish national teams will not face Russia in a crucial 2022 World Cup qualification playoff matches in March in protest at Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The war is a one man band, its not fair to target individual Russians. But, if examples like this take off, then its clear to even Putin that Russia is being sent down the North Korea isolation road, and thats probably a good thing. Sanctions dont seem to matter and even SWIFT, they can get around using China as the backdoor. Id like to see the world seek alternative markets for Russia exports, but as they have gallons of money in Reserve, will they just hold out? If alternative sources can be found on a permanent basis, that would be true isolation.

K8Toledo

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#2875593 27-Feb-2022 08:10

tdgeek:

Not sure I agree with this

The Polish and Swedish national teams will not face Russia in a crucial 2022 World Cup qualification playoff matches in March in protest at Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The war is a one man band, its not fair to target individual Russians. But, if examples like this take off, then its clear to even Putin that Russia is being sent down the North Korea isolation road, and thats probably a good thing. Sanctions dont seem to matter and even SWIFT, they can get around using China as the backdoor. Id like to see the world seek alternative markets for Russia exports, but as they have gallons of money in Reserve, will they just hold out? If alternative sources can be found on a permanent basis, that would be true isolation.

Unfortunately unlike N. Korea, Russia is rich in natural resources such as iron ore (used to produce steel), gas, and oil that many countries (particularly European) depend on. Russian natural gas supplies most of western europe especially Germany. That's why the Gerrman desicion to shut Nordstream came as a surprise.

quickymart

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#2875595 27-Feb-2022 08:20

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/02/russia-invasion-hundreds-march-through-christchurch-in-anti-vladimir-putin-protest-amid-fears-for-family-in-ukraine.html

Now this is a protest I would 100% be behind, unlike Tamaki and his bs.

tdgeek

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#2875597 27-Feb-2022 08:34

K8Toledo:

Unfortunately unlike N. Korea, Russia is rich in natural resources such as iron ore (used to produce steel), gas, and oil that many countries (particularly European) depend on. Russian natural gas supplies most of western europe especially Germany. That's why the Gerrman desicion to shut Nordstream came as a surprise.

Yes, Im aware of that. Its also rich in cash reserves its being building up. What Im saying is that they are one country, they dont supply 85% of anything to the globe.

Take crude oil, including other liquid oil based products. They produce 11% of it. If the other major nations can increase production as can smaller producers, that can pick ups lot of slack. Clearly that switch can't be tuned on tomorrow, but if you have a role nation, you need to do what you can to reduce its power, in my example, oil power. Reduce their bargaining power by reducing the need for their resources.

K8Toledo

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#2875615 27-Feb-2022 09:22

This just came in from AP. About time too.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/major-shift-germany-send-weapons-ukraine-83131834

tdgeek

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#2875623 27-Feb-2022 09:47

Nice. Id assume SWIFT will exclude oil and gas, but thats ok, it should stifle many Russian businesses, helping isolation. In fact its probably have your cake and eat it too, as the world can use Russian oil and gas while having a national effect on Russia

cruxis

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#2875690 27-Feb-2022 11:18

Is that not now interference by germany? That putin warned against, makes that shipment a valid target once it enters ukraine, thats if the russians can intercept it.

tdgeek

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#2875691 27-Feb-2022 11:29

cruxis:

Is that not now interference by germany? That putin warned against, makes that shipment a valid target once it enters ukraine, thats if the russians can intercept it.

US has/is sending ammo and weapons there. I guess if Putins attacks Germanys ship they can be retaliated by NATO. War is a two way street

rugrat

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#2875714 27-Feb-2022 12:48

tdgeek:

Nice. Id assume SWIFT will exclude oil and gas, but thats ok, it should stifle many Russian businesses, helping isolation. In fact its probably have your cake and eat it too, as the world can use Russian oil and gas while having a national effect on Russia

Russia could respond by restricting the gas flow. Doubt they would turn it completely off. Russia has also threatened cyber attacks, though if any major damage is done NATO would treat it as a physical attack and the response may not be a cyber attack in return but could be a military one instead.

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#2875715 27-Feb-2022 12:58

It is so much better if support is provided before.
when you can see obvious massive buildup of forces. It may even be a deterrent.

No doubt means to deliver supplies and distribute is unreliable, but there is no choice.
Poland must be thinking this is all too familiar.

Hopefully Germany sending more than 5000 Helmets, will be a sign there will be more 'swift' action.
Their 'green energy' is 'gas from Russia', and not much thought on what next ?
Gazprom is the major sponsor of Football amongst other things.
Then Deutsche Bank perhaps exposed to Russia 'bigly', given how their operations have been.

Oh I see they are salami slicing the 'swift' action.

Talk about 10 days would exhaust the Russian wave, it seems a long time to hang on.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/index.html

Putin has more destructive indiscriminate weapons, hopefully there is some power left in Russia to moderate him.

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#2875793 27-Feb-2022 15:14

these reactions are because of something unexpected

1. russia expected to just walk in and take over the country in 48 hrs according to western intel, but that did not go according to plan

as a result of 1

2. Putin's ego was bruised and he orders wanton destruction

as a result of 2

3. we are now at risk of a big war as the west could not bear to watch and do nothing with 2.

neb

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#2875814 27-Feb-2022 16:41

Batman:
3. we are now at risk of a big war as the west could not bear to watch and do nothing with 2.

I'm not so sure about that. From contacts in the Ukraine, outside of the areas where active fighting is taking place there are Russian troops wandering around not really knowing what to do and unsure why they're there at all. If the troops are already that demotivated in relatively friendly territory - some of this was from Ukrainians going up to chat to them - I doubt their leaders will risk sending them against other countries.

neb

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#2875816 27-Feb-2022 16:48

Good analysis from the appropriately-named Institute for the Study of War on the current military situation in the Ukraine, go to this page, click "Download the PDF" or use this link (warning, opens a PDF), and read the section starting at page 10, "Full-Scale Invasion", which is an assessment of his military options.

K8Toledo

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#2875820 27-Feb-2022 17:26

The Ukrainian President has proved to be one hell of a leader. "I need ammunition, not a ride".

quickymart

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#2875830 27-Feb-2022 18:04

I saw some protesters in Aotea Square this afternoon. Unlike the other mob, these people had a legitimate purpose, and I was going to ask them how to donate to the Ukrainian cause.

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