Ukraine War discussion

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#3313030 26-Nov-2024 12:44

Austria seems to have its fair or more than its fair share of corruption and troubles.

‘It’s really the Wild West’: Vienna’s spying problem spins out of control
Austria has become a ‘veritable aircraft carrier’ of Russian agents, says European official
https://www.ft.com/content/f790d8f4-2fe1-466d-8b29-83b1f4956984

As Austria Faces Yet Another Round of Political Scandals, Voters Are Starting to Tune Out
Apathy is the big winner from Vienna’s elite dysfunction.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/23/sebastian-kurz-political-scandal-austria/

About about early 2000's,
Spiegel, but seems that Austria provided so much material they did not have to sensationalize?

Jörg Haider's Legacy
Corruption Scandals Shake Faith in Austrian Democracy
When the late right-wing populist Jörg Haider went into politics, he vowed to free the country of corruption. But the scandals he left behind reveal that Haider's time in office did not represent the end but the height of cronyism in the country.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/joerg-haider-s-legacy-corruption-scandals-shake-faith-in-austrian-democracy-a-721596.html

Tinkerisk

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#3313471 27-Nov-2024 17:31

SaltyNZ:

Si vis pacem parabellum, I guess...

As the scouts say: „be prepared!“ Since the vikings, they are not known to be aggressive but defensive. 😉

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kingdragonfly

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#3313886 28-Nov-2024 17:36

A Chinese bulk cargo ship called the Yi Peng 3 speculated to sabotage two international data cables after leaving Russia

When Undersea Cables Get Cut

Tinkerisk

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#3313910 28-Nov-2024 18:37

kingdragonfly: A Chinese bulk cargo ship called the Yi Peng 3 speculated to sabotage two international data cables.

Work in progress.

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
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In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

Tinkerisk

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#3314037 29-Nov-2024 02:54

… and further things going on behind the scene.

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
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kingdragonfly

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#3314050 29-Nov-2024 07:36

If Putin wanted to push countries away from NATO, he couldn't do a worse job.

Also stupid of Putin, he's set up Russia as a vassal of China.

Unexpectedly the Russian economy is doing better than expected.

However the likely scenarios when Russia's bonds come due, mostly in 12 years, 2036:

As long as high energy export revenues continue, it might manage repayments in the short term.

However refinancing will become more expensive or impossible, leading to greater economic strain.

Russia has a horrible population pyramid, not enough young taxpayers for many, many decades. It's unlikely they can manage the debt leading to a financial crisis, capital flight, and a severe economic downturn.

What's likely is will prioritize bond repayments over social and developmental spending, reducing growth prospects. In turn this will lead to less young Russians wanting children.

In 25 years on the outside, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia balkanizes , fragments into smaller, independent states akin to the breakup of Yugoslavia.

This would be good for NATO, but very, very bad for the entire world. It seems inevitable.

gzt

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#3314210 29-Nov-2024 14:48

kingdragonfly: A Chinese bulk cargo ship called the Yi Peng 3 speculated to sabotage two international data cables after leaving Russia

I did not find time to watch the video yet. My understanding is the vessel is registered in China. I'd guess that fact has about as much relevance for it's actual owner or operator as half the yachts and pleasure boats in the Auckland Viaduct being registered in the Bahamas or whatever else is the most tax friendly option.

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#3314212 29-Nov-2024 14:55

kingdragonfly: In 25 years on the outside, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia balkanizes , fragments into smaller, independent states akin to the breakup of Yugoslavia. This would be good for NATO, but very, very bad for the entire world. It seems inevitable.

I would not bet on that outcome being good for NATO countries any more than you could say the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc was good for NATO countries, that's where we are now.

neb

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#3314289 29-Nov-2024 20:51

kingdragonfly: Unexpectedly the Russian economy is doing better than expected. However the likely scenarios when Russia's bonds come due, mostly in 12 years, 2036:

You can actually run an economy on empty for quite a long time if you're prepared to mortgage the future. Germany did this in the late 1930s and 1940s, I think the first bonds finally came due in 1947. They also looted every savings and pension and retirement fund there was (as Russia is doing indirectly by forcing businesses to prop up the rouble at their own expense), and right at the end used up the seed corn/grain for the next year and killed a lot of the livestock (dairy, wool) for food. A saying at the time went "enjoy the war, the peace will be terrible", because at that point all the chickens came home to roost.

Once Russia removes the tourniquet, the gangrene will be terrible.

ezbee

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#3314588 1-Dec-2024 10:58

Break up Russia may not be so dire.

The smaller states may be somewhat more interested in working with the world.
Given they have more direct need to trade to build their state without middlemen in Moscow.

Rich in resources, but not rich in manufacturing or transformation of that into stuff.
The technical support for extraction of resources all has to be imported as Moscow is finding.

On Nukes.

While Ukraine has given a lesson, it has even had some of the missiles it gave to Russia in disarmament used against them, with dummy warhead.
It may be a case of enough is enough, so we get a reduction to an India and Pakistan type situation etc that we live with now.

The intercontinental stuff may just be too expensive in upkeep and sophisticated systems that need to go around them. Not all based in country.
Those may not be very independently useable, as well as logic of a small state nuking Washington being lacking.

At very least west would be very helpful in supporting monitoring and security, at inception these states need money and trade the most, and who are you going to trade with.

Over years if you don't pour huge money into refurbishment and replacement they naturally dwindle.

These states will need that money for their own development now.
The excuse of Moscow stealing it all for lack of progress and ramshackle communal outhouses will be gone.
Even the pride of the strongman leader that might arise to build monuments that need capital.

Funnily enough a neighbor like China might be more a concern.
Making China comfortable you are not a threat to them with your aging stockpile.
Some getting into less trustworthy hands anywhere near China, which has borders that stretch to more unstable parts a worry to them.

For squabbles on borders of each state against each other.
Conventional artillery shell or warhead Iskandar is far more use than Nuclear one, given more free ability to liberally use.
Maybe not so liberal as Russia is working though most of that.

Its not necessarily dire, and with Putin having restarted development of new doomsday weapons.
Like the nuclear powered cruise missile that has so far been as much of a threat to Russia as anyone else.

Smaller states that may not be able to fund such extravagant wasteful aggression could be a better thing.

neb

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#3314671 1-Dec-2024 15:17

ezbee: Break up Russia may not be so dire.

I'm not seeing that happen. For some reason recently YT has been recommending a pile of ZOMG-Russia-is-about-to-collapse videos, which are identical to the ZOMG-Russia-is-about-to-collapse videos from a year ago, and the ZOMG-Russia-is-about-to-collapse videos from a year before that. I never log on and clear cache and cookies on exit so I'm not sure if there's some other tracking mechnism at play after I clicked on one just to see what they were going to say or whether there's been a sudden surge of these things recently, but rumours of Russia's death are greatly exaggerated.

Tinkerisk

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#3315002 1-Dec-2024 23:05

You should also never underestimate a rat, even if and especially if it is driven into a hopeless corner.

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

Handsomedan

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#3315038 2-Dec-2024 09:07

I've read a number of reports recently that Mr Zelenski (Sp?) is willing to make some concessions such as giving up some annexed land to the Russians, in order to stop the war, provided that he gets immediate entry to NATO.

Isn't Ukraine's entry to NATO what started the whole "special operation" in the first place?

I can't imagine Vlad the Impaler allowing Ukraine to have NATO membership, unless he was really backed into a corner.
That would not only cut off any potential for further expansion, as he'd be effectively surrounded by NATO Alliance countries, but it would also mean that he'd have started this war over something which he failed to prevent and would be accepting an effective defeat.
I can see him getting far more aggressive than he already has been before he "allows" that to happen.

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ezbee

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#3315182 2-Dec-2024 15:54

Handsomedan,

What Zelenskyy is referring to is that Ukraine could stand down its efforts to resist Russia's advance.
Then what is stopping Russia/Putin from just taking what he 'really really wants' ?

There was even talk of a very large DMZ zone, and like what Russia does in Georgia.
If there is nothing there why not move the barbed wire, see its now mine, or my puppet state's.

2017
https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/03/13/519471110/along-a-shifting-border-georgia-and-russia-maintain-an-uneasy-peace

2022 still moving
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/7/3/the-georgian-village-facing-russian-creeping-occupation

Certainly Putin/Russia has ignored prior agreements, and not just in this conflict,
so handshake and a signature does not stop him.

Putin has firstly annexed areas of Ukraine he does not occupy, that include major cities. So?
There is no indication that Putin is giving that up.

We know from him and his propagandists that parts he has not annexed yet that are very attractive.
The whole Odessa is a Russian city that Russia's state TV had made a big deal of.
Plus there is the aspect of joining up Transnistria, to properly destabilize Moldova, and Romania.

So its not sure where is that agreeable border that satisfies him, especially while he is advancing?

If Pinocchio always lies, how do you craft a binding agreement? :-)
Without means to enforce it forcefully ? So what force holds Putin to his agreement.

A different leader/country and signature is enough, but for 21st centuries Golden Horde ?

NATO was not imminent or truly possible, what was as with Georgia, was EU economic engagement.
(It is a 'defense' agreement, Finland's membership did not put Nukes on Russia's border either)
Putin's concern that started Maidan in Ukraine in 2014 was the economic union that people voted strongly for.
Putin spent a lot of money on thugs to try to steal a vote in Moldova to kill a vote on EU accession.
Once a country is part of EU economic block, with anti corruption, electoral monitoring, and a brighter future.

neb

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#3315210 2-Dec-2024 17:45

Handsomedan: I've read a number of reports recently that Mr Zelenski (Sp?) is willing to make some concessions such as giving up some annexed land to the Russians, in order to stop the war, provided that he gets immediate entry to NATO.

I can't see that ever happening. Ukraine has been engaged in a proxy war with Russia for more than a decade. Admitting Ukraine to Nato would convert it into a proxy war between Nato and Russia, which is absolutely the last thing anyone could want.

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