Ukraine War discussion

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#2877513 2-Mar-2022 09:37

rugrat:

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-01/card/russian-advance-on-kyiv-stalled-u-s-says-BBsVR5ATba81sDftETfj

Advance on Kyiv stalled Believe fuel and food shortages.

Apparently Russia is the world's 3rd largest oil producer so that's embarrassing.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

ezbee

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#2877611 2-Mar-2022 10:48

Straight to WWIII, maybe not.

As much as Chinese troops in Korea did not escalate to a direct war against China.
Russian Migs being flown by Russian pilots from bases in China did not result in greater war against Russia or China.
Chinese troops in Vietnam up to 1968, Russian Troops/Mercenaries vs Americans in Syria.

Its Cuban Missile crisis brinksmanship, but a no fly zone, or a refugee protection zone in Ukraine.
Would stay limited to conflict in Ukraine.

The equation becomes, does Putin roll up to that line and take the territory and put it in the bank.
Or risk it all being lost to bring in direct attacks on more states at the same time ?

But they will toss Nukes at us, again, Putin and his military leaders know the end MAD.
Putin may realize its a direct threat to him when he gives that order, its a chance he just gets removed.
The people receiving that order are not up to dying for or with Putin.

You give a chance for a limited escalation point.

Edit: There is more re other options but , time is running out.

You would replace 'swift lite' with full swift at a lower risk, but it has to be done early.
With major towns in Ukraine surviving 1 night at a time, being ground down steadily, time is running out.

Problem is less risky measures are being drip fed slowly.
So we get backed into more dangerous area or give up.

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#2877625 2-Mar-2022 11:15

all i'm saying is i think Putin has a psychiatric issue and you can't predict what these people are going to do

ezbee

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#2877638 2-Mar-2022 11:32

Batman:

all i'm saying is i think Putin has a psychiatric issue and you can't predict what these people are going to do

Oh yes...

Sure he's gone beyond his 'used by date', needs urgent care.
Its a question of the condition of the next layers below him that no-one seems to know.

Is the military really on board too, or scared of his security forces in the way Stalin maintained control.

The Mafia like Oligarchy does it have its own solutions ?

Popular uprisings take time.

tdgeek

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#2877653 2-Mar-2022 11:55

ezbee:

Oh yes...

Sure he's gone beyond his 'used by date', needs urgent care.
Its a question of the condition of the next layers below him that no-one seems to know.

Is the military really on board too, or scared of his security forces in the way Stalin maintained control.

The Mafia like Oligarchy does it have its own solutions ?

Popular uprisings take time.

Annecdotally its felt many Russian troops arent that into it, not at the level all troops should be. Mass arrests of demonstrators. Two oligarchs were in the news yesterday they dont want war (probably for $$ reasons) Many Russian citizens are linked to Ukraine. The sanctions will hurt people and the country, I feel there will be pushback. But its tough to go against a brutal dictator. If one pushed back, watch the line of them joining in. Or Putin is reported to have succumbed in a major car crash etc

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#2877666 2-Mar-2022 12:10

Boeing, the American aerospace company, has announced it is suspending “major operations” in Moscow, as well as “parts, maintenance, and technical support services for Russian airlines,” Politico’s Lee Hudson reports.

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#2877686 2-Mar-2022 12:18

Batman:

Boeing, the American aerospace company, has announced it is suspending “major operations” in Moscow, as well as “parts, maintenance, and technical support services for Russian airlines,” Politico’s Lee Hudson reports.

Stuff like this will really cripple Russia, more so than if UKR blasted missiles there. "Clean bullets"

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#2877705 2-Mar-2022 12:56

Watching CNN at lunch they cant understand how the 65km convoy is so slow, its exposed. Ive heard that food and fuel are a problem. But what about the troops, getting ready to attack a city where they are likely to have friends or family, thats hard to comprehend

rugrat

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#2877707 2-Mar-2022 13:08

Text messages from a Russian soldiers phone, after he died.

“Mama, I am in Ukraine. There is a real war raging here,” the solider wrote, according to the text messages read by Mr Kyslytsya.

“I’m afraid. We are bombing all of the cities together, even targeting civilians.

“We were told that they would welcome us and they are falling under our armoured vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass.

“They call us fascists. Mama this is so hard.”

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.skynews.com.au/world-news/russian-soldier-reveals-he-is-afraid-in-final-text-messages-sent-to-his-mother-before-death-in-ukraine/news-story/893a044592d976a5fb6783dadb068d8b%3famp

Also watching news 70 Ukrainian pilots in Poland to pick up fighter planes.

Edit: looks like no planes being provided :(

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/amp/

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#2877738 2-Mar-2022 13:51

the texts start with his mum wanting to send him a package

he told her they told him he was going on a training mission but they're not (hence "there's a real war")

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#2877740 2-Mar-2022 13:53

rugrat:

Edit: looks like no planes being provided :(

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/amp/

sounds like a response to a direct threat from the kremlin

ezbee

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#2877749 2-Mar-2022 13:59

Old Fighter jets.
Yeh the announcing so many fine details of Ukraine aid, no one thought of keeping opposition guessing ?
Best time would have been after they were in action, if ever. Not exactly Art of War wisdom.

Certain messages would have been sent to donating countries called out and maybe reason for this.

Belarus president stands in front of battle map indicating Moldova invasion plans
https://thehill.com/policy/international/596409-belarus-president-stands-in-front-of-battle-map-indicating-moldova

It seems the cost of not putting in place 'more costly to us' sanctions on Belarus years ago.
To support the democratic movement there strongly, even at immediate economic risk.
In the long run the cost will be far higher.

Cartoon History, Why does Moldova exist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phiapMuyQ3w

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#2877791 2-Mar-2022 14:54

Ukraine asks Internet to disable .ru and .su domains

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#2877810 2-Mar-2022 15:13

I do belive the russians have shown alot of restraint, for what that they could have done, and Ukraines stuborn resistance. How long will the restraint last before, before putin says "stuff it" and just levels the place and will the soilders do it.

“There are two basic ways you can describe the slowness of the Russian advance in Ukraine,” said Loren Thompson, a defense analyst at the Lexington Institute, a Washington think tank. “One explanation is deliberate restraint. The other explanation is poor execution. We don’t know enough to identify which is the more plausible explanation, but it’s important to recognize the Russians have all sorts of options they have not yet brought to bear,” including heavier use of cyberattacks against the Ukrainian command and control system and air defenses.

Source https://businessmirror.com.ph/2022/03/01/russia-slow-to-win-ukraines-airspace-limiting-war-gains/

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#2877851 2-Mar-2022 17:02

I think one of the more worrying possibilities for a Russian military that is not doing as well as it hoped is the escalation into explicit disregard for civilians, similar to how they conducted attacks in Syria, as a way of speeding up a conclusive result.

The idea of a fast, brutal war being less painful for everyone in the long term (contrasted with sometimes paralysing US reluctance to accept any collateral damage) is familiar to Russian military planners. Levelling city blocks with thermobaric or other weapons would undoubtedly be horrific, but they may be prepared to take the international outrage on the chin if such action broke Ukrainian resistance and will to fight.

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