NZ 2023 Election Thread

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195 posts

Master Geek

#3123510 4-Sep-2023 13:32

I'm in the same position. I can't tolerate the woke or driving around at walking pace, but I know the waterways & lakes will probably be trashed even more under National, we'll lose more productive farmland to sprawl, & house prices will probably take off again.

Things like the health system have no quick fix & people are dreaming if they think any party is going to instantly fix things. People also need to remember that the minister for a portfolio really makes stuff all difference to the actual delivery capability, unless there's some bottleneck that just needed a law change.

ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#3123557 4-Sep-2023 13:41

On2or3wheels:

ockel:

Some are pure marketing spin - like taking action to hold supermarkets to account (and then also claiming the Supermarket Commissioner as another achievement for some double counting). What has actually been achieved here that has fundamentally held the supermarkets to account? There has been a market study (like petrol retailing - again what has been achieved?)

So true question, has National commented on what they would do about the supermarket duopoly? Or issues with our building supplies market? It's not something a right leaning party would normally care about.

Going completely off topic.

Show me that the industry is earning supernormal profits (ROIC above WACC). The ComCom reports were woefully inadequate, woeful in its comparison with overseas supermarkets (where GP, EBITDA and NPAT margins were not dissimilar but couldnt determine whether ROACE for NZ supermarkets were consistent with workable competition by comparing with overseas grocery retailers - ie its too hard to determine if NZ makes supernormal profits compared to overseas (its that the point of the study??? why not present vs Australia????) ComCom believes that WACC for grocery retailing in NZ should be 5.5%. As with most industries in NZ, Comcom significantly underestimate WACC to the point that if industries were regulated to WACC then there would be no capital investment in NZ. Thats why our electricity transmission assets are so poor and little reinvestment is undertaken, its why Auckland Airport wants to gold-plate its new terminal and runway (to significantly increase the RAB such that it can earn a sub-WACC return on a much larger base).

Ask yourself the question - if you were allowed to earn 5.5% post tax returns on your investment, would you bother?

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

On2or3wheels

195 posts

Master Geek

#3123562 4-Sep-2023 14:07

I didn't actually mention profit. There's been abuse of power in many other areas that could hinder competition or force suppliers to accept very low prices at their end.

ezbee

2406 posts

Uber Geek

#3123565 4-Sep-2023 14:32

octel

It's probably not as simple as straight 5.5% post tax return ( 7.64% pre tax ).
There is the matter of the capital gain of assets, company value and many other things i expect.

That Supermarkets can sit on properties and have operations a short walk from each other operating profitably.
Just to block any competition, making sure that sites of suitable size are limited.
It says something about there being more holding up the value of the business to shareholders and owners.
Normally business can't afford this sort of thing.

Supermarkets are also very positively cash geared, their customers pay well before they pay their suppliers etc.

It would need a savvy corporate accountant to put the multiple ways a company may be fat and happy with X book profit.

It does sound a lot for a very stable type of long term returns business though.
Like investment interest rates on stable Government bonds are very low , vs high rates a high risk investment company offer.

I have worked in businesses that earned a lot less, though not happily.
However being global operations maybe costs were shunted around to reduce tax such that there was more hidden profit.
The consternation of corporate being more for show to local tax officials should they ever ask?

I did hear that banks have recently been making 2% more than what was historic, with 4% margins on their business.
Competition reducing as everyone is focused on returns vs expanding and gaining new customers.

Qazzy03

478 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3123626 4-Sep-2023 18:06

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMdTVsPD6nk

Anyone else seen this interview?

Sorry if already been posted, loved how the interviewer asked questions and challenged some of the statements.

Handle9

11402 posts

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#3123630 4-Sep-2023 18:25

Rikkitic:

ockel:

How about you list the things you think they've achieved and convince me they deserve another 3 years?

They do not deserve another three years. The problem is National does not deserve to replace them!

As I mentioned earlier in the thread it's dumb and dumber. The paucity of talent in both parties is sad.

tdgeek

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#3123639 4-Sep-2023 18:56

Handle9:

As I mentioned earlier in the thread it's dumb and dumber. The paucity of talent in both parties is sad.

I generally agree. Almost..

NZ has few resources, so no party will make good. So they both offer lollies, yes that to me is sad. I stated 6 years ago that my National/Labour voting was equal. I got hammered by one poster for that post which really really pissed me off, tantamount to being called a liar. There are times to be liberal and also conservative. Talent wise, I rate Hipkins and Robertson, I dont rate Luxon or Willis. Both Chris's are Leader 2.0. Hipkins can and has divorced himself from Jacinda Ardern. Luxon has divorced himself from the past array of National leaders. Take that as equal, 2 x 2.0. Hipkins as a leader as Robertson as a Finance Minister, I rate. As I have for John Key and Bill English. The differing philosophy isnt relevant. Talent and desire rules. If thats deemed as Luxon and Willis, fine by me, easy to predict the narrative from then on. If we have concern about the key sectors, which I note are NOT discussed in these threads now, well, nowt will happen. National will win this election but the commentary thereafter is obvious. 6 years ago i commented about what has been inherited. Told that I cannot say that. Lets watch. Blame Game

Im about to exit this thread, as hue I thought this will be good, its evolved between the blue and red forearm tattoos, not quite the adult discussion Id assumed. Yes, bias is normal and healthy.

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ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#3123651 4-Sep-2023 19:40

tdgeek:

I generally agree. Almost..

NZ has few resources, so no party will make good. So they both offer lollies, yes that to me is sad. I stated 6 years ago that my National/Labour voting was equal. I got hammered by one poster for that post which really really pissed me off, tantamount to being called a liar. There are times to be liberal and also conservative. Talent wise, I rate Hipkins and Robertson, I dont rate Luxon or Willis. Both Chris's are Leader 2.0. Hipkins can and has divorced himself from Jacinda Ardern. Luxon has divorced himself from the past array of National leaders. Take that as equal, 2 x 2.0. Hipkins as a leader as Robertson as a Finance Minister, I rate. As I have for John Key and Bill English. The differing philosophy isnt relevant. Talent and desire rules. If thats deemed as Luxon and Willis, fine by me, easy to predict the narrative from then on. If we have concern about the key sectors, which I note are NOT discussed in these threads now, well, nowt will happen. National will win this election but the commentary thereafter is obvious. 6 years ago i commented about what has been inherited. Told that I cannot say that. Lets watch. Blame Game

Im about to exit this thread, as hue I thought this will be good, its evolved between the blue and red forearm tattoos, not quite the adult discussion Id assumed. Yes, bias is normal and healthy.

And yet I dont rate Hipkins and Robertson. Hipkins did a rubbish job in his previous incarnations as Minister for Education and Police and even Covid-19. As a leader the jury is still out and he doesnt smack of experience in leading a country (let alone a fish shop) as shown with his tip-e-toe diplomacy this year.

As for Robertson, fiscal mismanagement is the order of the day. Its hard to remember a Minister of Finance that has blown the countries finances so badly - one has to go back to Muldoon to get a corollary. I couldnt imagine the damage to the nations books if there was another 3 years of not understanding how a Government should manage its finances on the other side of adversity.

Clearly very very differing opinions.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

tdgeek

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#3123708 5-Sep-2023 09:11

ockel:

Clearly very very differing opinions.

Opinions isnt the word I would use...

So Hipkins is better off in a fish n chip shop, and GR is likened to Muldoon

Ok, good to have some well worked and solid comparisons....

sen8or

1789 posts

Uber Geek

#3123760 5-Sep-2023 10:09

Qazzy03:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMdTVsPD6nk

Anyone else seen this interview?

Sorry if already been posted, loved how the interviewer asked questions and challenged some of the statements.

This is the sort of questioning that all politicians should be subject to, not taking the stock fluffy answers, pushing for actual answers. I'm only about 5 mins in so far, but if she doesn't get better with her answers, Robertson will have a field day with her during debates.

GV27

5897 posts

Uber Geek

#3123761 5-Sep-2023 10:14

sen8or:

This is the sort of questioning that all politicians should be subject to, not taking the stock fluffy answers, pushing for actual answers. I'm only about 5 mins in so far, but if she doesn't get better with her answers, Robertson will have a field day with her during debates.

Robertson is prone to making all sorts of stupid claims - he's supposedly slating National's tax cuts as 'inflationary' but was happy to give people hundreds of dollars in helicopter payments. He should also explain how the government taking money and vapourising it with nothing to show for it is not inflationary, but letting people keep and spend it on their own living costs is.

A well moderated debate will challenge Robertson's relationship with reality as much as Willis' grip on the facts when it comes to taxes. They're both probably going to come up miserably short, assuming they both get held to the same standard.

Rikkitic

Awrrr
18664 posts

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#3123762 5-Sep-2023 10:20

This interview is brilliant. She keeps trying to follow the debate 101 handbook by steering the discussion back to her prefabricated talking points; he is like a pitbull, or maybe a bulldozer, sweeping her BS aside and forcing her back to the subject. One of the best I have seen. She is probably still trying to figure out what hit her.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

gzt

17157 posts

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#3123808 5-Sep-2023 11:59

GV27: Robertson is prone to making all sorts of stupid claims - he's supposedly slating National's tax cuts as 'inflationary' but was happy to give people hundreds of dollars in helicopter payments.

I think you may be comparing national party tax policy to covid-19 economic survival strategy. Those are two very different things. Most first world economies experienced and are experiencing a period of high inflation after covid. NZ combined strategy did avoid economic destruction and most importantly for family and people that I love - it prevented a huge pile of dead people.

gzt

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#3123813 5-Sep-2023 12:07

Anti-vaxxers included. Some of the anti-vax people I know are way too stubborn to beg for vax or anti-body on their deathbeds as was very sadly the case as reported from Florida and a few other places. I hope those were exceptions and the majority of cases changed their mind about all that when faced with reality, as many no doubt did, and some did too late.

ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#3123874 5-Sep-2023 15:28

Roy Morgan poll for August is out. It hardly gets mentioned by the other media as its not their poll. But given its traditionally been the most accurate come polling day its worthy of scrutiny.

Minor parties are surging. National leaking to Act and Labour leaking to Greens. Labour continues to slide.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9332-nz-national-voting-intention-august-2023

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

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