2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3261471 19-Jul-2024 16:04

There are reports that Biden is stepping down. It’s not in main stream media so needs to be confirmed. Hopefully in the next 48 hours for confirmation.

In the reports he plans to see out his remaining term. Biden will also reportedly endorse an open convention, and not endorse VP Harris.

https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/us-news/presidential-election/2024/07/19/66999de5e2704e308c8b4572.html

gzt

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#3261484 19-Jul-2024 16:51

According to a report from NewsMax

Well ok newsmax would they really be the first to know if it happened?

SJB

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#3261486 19-Jul-2024 16:55

It may be that the Republicans have peaked too early. If the Dems can dump JB in the next few days and come up with two new candidates for President and VP it could almost be like a new campaign.

It will be difficult for Trump and Co to maintain the same energy and excitement levels for the next 4 months. Against new, younger candidates he could start looking old and washed up. Just like JB does now.

quickymart

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#3261500 19-Jul-2024 17:15

I think I posted this previously, but Allan Lichtman has outlined a Plan B that outlines exactly what you describe above and explains how Biden could still retain the keys to the White House for the Democrats:

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2024/07/04/should-biden-step-aside-election-predictor-allan-lichtman-talks-plan-b/

Having said that I wouldn't trust Newsmax, they're in a league of their own on the Fox side of things. They were also sued by the electoral voting companies for making false and misleading statements about vote counting, a la Fox - and we all know how that turned out for the latter.

CNN did quote a Biden official as saying he wouldn't be doing anything before the (US) weekend...but let's see what happens.

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#3261503 19-Jul-2024 17:17

TeaLeaf:

Re Mark Kelly, the more I look the more I like. Whilst not as familiar as Newsom he is clearly known by a fair number of the US public. He is very strong on womens rights too, which makes me wonder, do you really need Harris? hehe For the black demographic Wes Moore is prob one of the most well known (via TV etc) and has a great background (all the dems seem to oddly). Kelly/Moore for twenty twenty four, oh that just sounds right :-).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qbm_1p1Iy6g

Mark Kelly is good, but again you have the lack of name recognition issue. Yes people in Arizona would know exactly who he is, but ask someone in Idaho and they would most likely say, "who?"

If Joe does decide to step down and Kamala becomes president, it would be interesting to see who her VP pick would be. Also it would be grossly unfair to Harris just to pass her over to be President if Joe leaves in favour of someone else - barring her not wanting the job in the first place (I have no idea if she has designs on the role or not).

TeaLeaf

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#3261504 19-Jul-2024 17:17

rugrat:

There are reports that Biden is stepping down. It’s not in main stream media so needs to be confirmed. Hopefully in the next 48 hours for confirmation.

you missed my post this morning :-)

thats what set off the discussion about who will replace him and some reports saying it will be Mark Kelly. given their own pollng of 15000V's they know they have a number of preferred candidates to both Biden and Harris.

but with these rumors its always a case of trying to track down a reliable report and see if they list a source of said infomation. It just isnt there yet.

Ive also read it will occur after the weekend.

SJB:

It may be that the Republicans have peaked too early.

It will be difficult for Trump and Co to maintain the same energy and excitement levels for the next 4 months.

Everything you said is spot on. Even Joe could still win, there is a lot to come that could seed doubt, a possible sentencing, an exhibition of the Georgia case evidence played out in front of the media, JD Vance being one heart beat from potential Pres put under the spotlight (was a bado move by Trump imo) who has verbalised a complete ban on all abortions (he needs to be taught better respect for women), abandoning Ukr, a lot of P25 stuff, hes just a very small minded, isolationist hillbilly, this is why they/Trump have now declined a Running mate debate with him.

Like I said before, Regan also got a bump in polls, but he went up 8pts not 3, and even his rise from it only lasted 3 months, I can see Trumps wearing off fast.

There are many videos and articles now on P2025 and no matter how much Trump tries to deny it, there is overwhelming evidence he knows a lot about it/involved. I dont think the voters will take kindly to it or some of the good journalism around it. I just finished the first of 4 hour long series by abc Australia four corners, thoroughly recommend a youtube watch of that and the short but precise NYT piece.

TeaLeaf

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#3261517 19-Jul-2024 17:47

quickymart:

Mark Kelly is good

Also it would be grossly unfair to Harris just to pass her over to be President

Mark is a bit more well known than that to be fair, his wife had assasination attempt while in congress which was huge news throwing them into the spotlight etc nationally, plus the astronaut thing haha ;-p, he speaks a fair bit. but he is definitely capable of prosecuting this election.

Yeh Im yes and no on being unfair. I think if the truly believe its existential, which I truly do not think is just propaganda, then as per the polls, twice as many RV's said its more important to pick the most capable/best of them than the next in line. I agree with that However I do think on a personal level it woud not be nice for her, but she isnt well warmed to. But, she is capable of the job imo.

But, compared to the watered down Repubs they have so many candidates capable of the main job. all of them seem to be looking to run in 28. (assuming the constitution remains and the two term amendment.

The thing is, its not a straight forward process. There is 4 ways it can occur, my brain fog eludes me I will try to clarify that later

I just wish more Republicans had put conscience over career.

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quickymart

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#3261596 19-Jul-2024 20:34

TeaLeaf:

The thing is, its not a straight forward process. There is 4 ways it can occur, my brain fog eludes me I will try to clarify that later

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/how-can-biden-be-replaced-2024-election.html

^ a helpful guide.

Granted, Mark's wife was shot (I remember when that happened, it was pretty big news) but remember that this all happened over 10 years ago, and while she fortunately recovered, I imagine most Americans would struggle to identify her husband personally - although I imagine a large portion will know who his wife is.

TeaLeaf

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#3261634 19-Jul-2024 22:57

quickymart:

I imagine most Americans would struggle to identify her husband personally .

I was surprised just how many ppl didnt know who JD is, cant stand the "poor me" self centred "poor me" sycophant. a lot of americans going back to 7yo vids on YT, what a nice smart person he sounds like type comments, yeah when he was a never trumper. That rachael maddow strip down of him I posted is perfect.

Newshom has a fair bit of folk who think hes a bit too much of slick talk with some mistakes in his career.

I like Shapiro, got option as another swing state governor. He has name recognition.

So does Wes Moore, strong black man who in another lifetime would make a good pick with Whitmer.

Ugggh, too many option but so many that dont work together, I dont think we are going to know until post Dem convention......

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#3261635 19-Jul-2024 23:02

rugrat:

There are reports that Biden is stepping down. It’s not in main stream media so needs to be confirmed. Hopefully in the next 48 hours for confirmation.

In the reports he plans to see out his remaining term. Biden will also reportedly endorse an open convention, and not endorse VP Harris.

https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/us-news/presidential-election/2024/07/19/66999de5e2704e308c8b4572.html

MSNBC journalist (reportedly Biden's close friend) says that Biden is being kept in a bubble by people with vested interest, urgest his good friend to step down

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/us/politics/biden-joe-scarborough-election-withdraw.html

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/msnbc-morning-joe-scarborough-joe-142914870.html

gzt

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#3261636 19-Jul-2024 23:14

Batman: MSNBC journalist (reportedly Biden's close friend) says that Biden is being kept in a bubble by people with vested interest, urgest his good friend to step down
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/us/politics/biden-joe-scarborough-election-withdraw.html
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/msnbc-morning-joe-scarborough-joe-142914870.html

Morning talkshow host yeah right. Also at least one badly attributed quote in that article.

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#3261698 20-Jul-2024 07:08

gzt:
Batman: MSNBC journalist (reportedly Biden's close friend) says that Biden is being kept in a bubble by people with vested interest, urgest his good friend to step down

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/us/politics/biden-joe-scarborough-election-withdraw.html

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/msnbc-morning-joe-scarborough-joe-142914870.html

Morning talkshow host yeah right. Also at least one badly attributed quote in that article.

not just talkshow hosts, politic elites masquerades more like

he's an ex congressman and one of Biden's favourite too (apparently)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/media/2024/07/12/biden-morning-joe-democratic-therapy-session/

kingdragonfly

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#3261700 20-Jul-2024 07:31

quickymart: a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2024/07/04/should-biden-step-aside-election-predictor-allan-lichtman-talks-plan-b/">https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2024/07/04/should-biden-step-aside-election-predictor-allan-lichtman-talks-plan-b/

Incumbents do hold an unbelieivable advantage in the US.

Consistently 94% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids.

You just need to look at very unpopular incumbents like Ted Cruz and Matt Goetz for confirmation.

Compare this to New Zealand where incumbents winning is so inconsistent that I can't find figures.

quickymart

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#3261701 20-Jul-2024 07:59

TeaLeaf:

I was surprised just how many ppl didnt know who JD is, cant stand the "poor me" self centred "poor me" sycophant. a lot of americans going back to 7yo vids on YT, what a nice smart person he sounds like type comments, yeah when he was a never trumper. That rachael maddow strip down of him I posted is perfect.

More like...

gzt

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#3261767 20-Jul-2024 12:22

JD Vance is a genuinely and exceptionally smart guy with exceptional achievements on his cv. His book Hillbilly Elegy gained him support from some Democrats - I found the book to be reprehensible. I'll let this summarise:

Wikipedia: The New Republic criticized him as "liberal media's favorite white trash–splainer" and the "false prophet of blue America."

Economist William Easterly, a West Virginia native, criticized the book, writing, "Sloppy analysis of collections of people—coastal elites, flyover America, Muslims, immigrants, people without college degrees, you name it—

Soon after the book - Vance established a charity to fight opioid addiction. It's two recorded achievements seem to be funding Vance's political advisor and deploying a psychiatrist associated with a centre right think tank to assist in a methadone program. I hope that helped someone.

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