NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3135927 28-Sep-2023 13:29

JPNZ:

I still can't believe NZF is polling over 5% its like some boomer driven nightmare. Who on earth is voting for winston he's 78 years old for goodness sake

It's kind of what I find so perverse. Is he genuinely representative of your average NZer? Which I vaguely recall is probably now female, of mixed ethnicity (but I can't remember what age). Or is he representative of a pretty potent voting group? I'd have to look up but I guess more 65+ vote proportionally than the other end of the voter eligibility spectrum.

I've often mused that when one reaches the age of superannuation. You have a choice, receive super, or be able to vote.

tdgeek

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#3135929 28-Sep-2023 13:31

GV27:

You want a small country from NZ to have no external factors before you want to hold a finance minister to spending blowouts? I mean... why even bother having one, at that point. Like seriously.

You don't know what is in the National fiscal plan because they haven't released it yet. You have a tax policy which as been externally vetted. Exactly the same arrangement as the Labour fiscal plan, with pretty much exactly the same review commentary. But the Labour one is somehow to a higher standard.

But let's see what tomorrow brings, although I'm prepared to wager that it won't meet whatever standard you want to hold it to, which incidentally will be a far higher bar than you would consider hold Labour to.

Dont be like that. If both models are open to view, Im good with that. nationals isnt, thats all I and economists etc are saying. As many numbers dont add up, but they cannot be examined. But if they are plausible, and Chris and Nicole are "good with numbers" and they are comfortable I guess that's ok. No, its not quite the same. Referring to the tax plan, as the fiscal plan isn't released. But I would assume the fiscal plan is weighted wo what the tax plan delivers, which is what is in doubt.

As you know I see Covid and Ukraine as major, very major. In this thread they are seen as minor, its all Labour's fault, that is my opinion. We and other countries could have done better for sure, but at the time do you lockdown a lot or a little. Getting that wrong has severe consequences, its not something you can see what happens.

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#3135930 28-Sep-2023 13:32

GV27:

You want a small country from NZ to have no external factors

Thats twisting my words

tdgeek

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#3135931 28-Sep-2023 13:35

mudguard:

It's kind of what I find so perverse. Is he genuinely representative of your average NZer? Which I vaguely recall is probably now female, of mixed ethnicity (but I can't remember what age). Or is he representative of a pretty potent voting group? I'd have to look up but I guess more 65+ vote proportionally than the other end of the voter eligibility spectrum.

I've often mused that when one reaches the age of superannuation. You have a choice, receive super, or be able to vote.

Its democracy. Far right to far left, they all participate. Should one or both of the major parties be a solid group of people, the tiny parties wont get a look in. Otherwise, they do

GV27

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#3135932 28-Sep-2023 13:39

tdgeek:

Thats twisting my words

You aren't prepared to examine our response to these events because they are external, as if it trumps the decisions we made and the things we can control in response to them.

To quote Drederick Tatum: You leave me little recourse.

Eitsop

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#3135933 28-Sep-2023 13:41

Alternative speech I wish Hipkins would give

Today I won’t be attacking the opposition, as my plan and vision for NZ will be the standout.

The cost of Living in NZ.. is not just an immediate issue from recent inflation increases from the covid stimulation packages, but a fundamental issue in NZ that has been growing and has got to the point of being unsustainable.

Resulting in
- an increasing gap between rich and poor, and
- an increase in crime from the imbalances in society

This is rooted in the exploding house prices, making houses & life unaffordable for many New Zealanders. Especially the young generation

My Plan is to make housing affordable for all New Zealanders, so by the time they retire, they can be living in their own family housing. I want everyone to aspire to owning their own house and raising a family without the need of working 80 hours a week.
I want life to reflect how hard you work, not how much you speculate.

While supply of houses is an issue, the government can help control demand.

To achieve this, I will be restricting immigration to levels, that allow us to build enough houses for the immigrants we are bringing in, and to remove the emergency housing & reduce housing waiting lists.

The rate of immigration in the past, has caused many imbalances, from housing to infrastructure. As we are seeing around NZ with the overloaded health system and water infrastructure

We will be focusing on bringing in those people to make sure, we have the skills we need.
If students want to learn in NZ, that is fine.. but unless they are on the required skills list, once they have finished, they will be required to return to their home country, it will not be a path to residency.

But I won’t bring in a capital gains tax, or land tax

As all inflation is bad, I will be tasking the RBNZ to separately control house price inflation, to ensure house prices are in line with normal inflation. The RBNZ will use mortgage rates on a regional basis to control house price inflation. This will remove the rampant speculation in housing market.
(also rent controls to ensure rent can only increase at the rate of inflation)
I will also give the RBNZ new tools to help with managing normal of inflation.

New Zealand needs to be place where people and families can thrive and achieve their dreams

Thank you

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wellygary

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#3135934 28-Sep-2023 13:43

sen8or:

Come October 14th I predict -

National/Act will get the votes to govern alone. Elements of labour/greens supporters will see the writing on the wall and vote strategically to keep NZF out.

It highly likely that it is Labour voters that are voting to get NZF In....

They see him as the least radical, and would like the extremities of ACT's policies tempered...

Just as anecdotally National Voters voted Labour in 2020 to keeps the Greens out of Government, in 2023 Labour voters will vote NZF to keep ACT's influence down...

tdgeek

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#3135941 28-Sep-2023 14:03

GV27:

You aren't prepared to examine our response to these events because they are external, as if it trumps the decisions we made and the things we can control in response to them.

To quote Drederick Tatum: You leave me little recourse.

Completely wrong. How can you ascertain the correct reponse, IN the response, in what was an unforeseen and huge global event? You can exmaine it later, and learn. I posted here about how terrible Nationals response to the CHC EQ's were, it was unreal and it went on and on years later. Do I blame them? Technically I guess I could, but its impossible to nail a response like that or Covid. Like Covid, how can you deal with that on the fly? You cannot, you learn later. So when the next big EQ happens and the next pandemic, we will all be better off.

But I dont have an expectation that when these two events occurred, whoever was in power will nail it, or get three smidgens close to nailing it. Covid wise, IMF seems to indicate (Yes GR relayed some stats the other day) that we have done ok and better than many. Every country had the same issues. Things are improving, as are the books

Im ok with that

GV27

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#3135950 28-Sep-2023 14:35

tdgeek:

Completely wrong. How can you ascertain the correct reponse, IN the response, in what was an unforeseen and huge global event? You can exmaine it later, and learn.

But we aren't doing that. There's no independent review of RBNZ's response - which has cost us at least $9B and had huge flow-on efects on housing affordability. We dipped into 'Covid recovery' funds (an underspend which we then spent) to fund anything and anything and now have huge ongoing operating obligations as a result. You're overlooking the actual things you need to accept as us getting horribly wrong before you can learn anything.

Shrugging your shoulders and going "but external event!" over and over again isn't learning anything. It's not even accepting there was ever a problem or a mistake you can learn from.

Your entire argument is that we examine these things are we learn from them, but we aren't examining anything that is politically inconvenient for the current government, and anyone who suggests we should have done things differently gets explained away with some remark about hindsight, ignoring the fact there were plenty of people going "are we sure this is a good idea?" at the time.

ezbee

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#3135954 28-Sep-2023 14:44

Everyone did QE and other things to keep economies alive.
Subsidies to global shipping companies to keep world trade going, supporting employers to keep staff employed, various expensive covid measures, down to restaurant vouchers.
Then you have all the measures including some overhang of QE to help economy keep rolling into recovery afterward that does not happen overnight.
This was all money that had to be printed or taken from other parts of the economy.

Its a small list of countries that are not struggling with historically high inflation, many other issues as economies adjust.

Beware sharper economic slowdown and tougher inflation, warns adviser to central banks
Bank of International Settlements said markets risk ignoring aftershocks from inflation such as insolvencies and property price falls
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/18/beware-sharper-economic-slowdown-and-tougher-inflation-warns-adviser-to-central-banks

""
Inflation in the UK was 6.8% in July and is expected to increase to 7.1% in August in response to rising oil prices when the latest figures are published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday.
""

Australia’s CPI rose to 5.2% in August as attempts to tame inflation falter
Jump in CPI could stir debate around another RBA cash rate hike, although the spike in the oil price could prove to be transitory
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/27/australia-august-inflation-rate-cpi

""
The Reserve Bank expects the 2-3% target inflation range will be reached by late 2025, three years after it peaked at 8.4%.
""

On Healthcare, on top of high marginal taxes, Germany raised basic Health Insurance to 14% on wages ( 7% employee/7% employer)... in detail it may be a bit more complicated 14.6% to 15.6%, plus a 0.9% add on for something.
Due to problems keeping up with costs too.

tdgeek

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#3135955 28-Sep-2023 14:50

GV27:

ignoring the fact there were plenty of people going "are we sure this is a good idea?" at the time.

Did those plenty of people know exactly how things were going to pan out?

Auckland lockdown for example. Was it too long? How do we know it was too long back then? If we made it a quick and dirty lockdown, great, then we find the whole city and surrounds are one large diseasefest and the city shuts down by way of sickness and death. One example of hindsight. But if the govt of the day should know what to do and all the outcomes, then I am incorrect. I get it now, it was easy then and Labour screwed us all up, got it.

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GV27

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#3135958 28-Sep-2023 14:56

ezbee:

Everyone did QE and other things to keep economies alive.
Subsidies to global shipping companies to keep world trade going, supporting employers to keep staff employed, various expensive covid measures, down to restaurant vouchers.
Then you have all the measures including some overhang of QE to help economy keep rolling into recovery afterward that does not happen overnight.
This was all money that had to be printed or taken from other parts of the economy.

Its a small list of countries that are not struggling with historically high inflation, many other issues as economies adjust.

Beware sharper economic slowdown and tougher inflation, warns adviser to central banks
Bank of International Settlements said markets risk ignoring aftershocks from inflation such as insolvencies and property price falls
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/18/beware-sharper-economic-slowdown-and-tougher-inflation-warns-adviser-to-central-banks

""
Inflation in the UK was 6.8% in July and is expected to increase to 7.1% in August in response to rising oil prices when the latest figures are published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday.
""

Australia’s CPI rose to 5.2% in August as attempts to tame inflation falter
Jump in CPI could stir debate around another RBA cash rate hike, although the spike in the oil price could prove to be transitory
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/27/australia-august-inflation-rate-cpi

""
The Reserve Bank expects the 2-3% target inflation range will be reached by late 2025, three years after it peaked at 8.4%.
""

On Healthcare, on top of high marginal taxes, Germany is considering raising basic Health Insurance to 14% on wages ( 7% employee/7% employer)
Due to problems keeping up with costs too.

OK, and? Other people have the same problem - high inflation. That does mean the things that caused it are the same.

We wouldn't know to what extent our decisions contributed to it - like dropping LVRs to zero or continuing to offer funds to banks to lend at cheap rates when house prices had already exploded because we aren't even having an external review of those decisions. The RBNZ carried out their own review. They've also made several comments around inflation that don't line up with timelines around the war in Ukraine and the response to the emergence of inflation.

https://croakingcassandra.com/2023/08/19/misleading-parliament/

But to take the opposite approach - if we really are so powerless that the inflationary factors that affect other countries specifically (e.g. Russian gas energy crisis in Germany/UK) have such a huge impact on us, isn't it even more important we get the basics right here with the things we can actually control ourselves?

ockel

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#3135972 28-Sep-2023 15:18

GV27:

OK, and? Other people have the same problem - high inflation. That does mean the things that caused it are the same.

We wouldn't know to what extent our decisions contributed to it - like dropping LVRs to zero or continuing to offer funds to banks to lend at cheap rates when house prices had already exploded because we aren't even having an external review of those decisions. The RBNZ carried out their own review. They've also made several comments around inflation that don't line up with timelines around the war in Ukraine and the response to the emergence of inflation.

https://croakingcassandra.com/2023/08/19/misleading-parliament/

But to take the opposite approach - if we really are so powerless that the inflationary factors that affect other countries specifically (e.g. Russian gas energy crisis in Germany/UK) have such a huge impact on us, isn't it even more important we get the basics right here with the things we can actually control ourselves?

You should add Jenny Ruths piece from the same meeting as salient reading too.

https://justthebusinessjennyruth.substack.com/p/adrian-orr-tones-down-his-hostility

Especially telling is the paragraph:

"Past examples

For example, in November last year, Orr told the FEC that to have kept inflation between 1% and 3%, “we would've had to predict the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2020” and he repeated that claim later in the same session.

Inflation had been outside the target range since the June quarter of 2021 and had reached 5.9% by the December quarter of 2021, two months before Russia's invasion.

In December 2021, RBNZ officials arguably misled the FEC by denying it had lost 10 out of 25 of its most senior staff since June of that year.

Later that day, the central bank confirmed it had indeed lost 10 senior staff, but that their ranks had numbered 26, not 25."

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#3135980 28-Sep-2023 15:27

GV27: ignoring the fact there were plenty* of people going "are we sure this is a good idea?" at the time.

*Citation needed.

Ideally a citation that has a timestamp showing that was the view at the time based on evidence based information rather than purely partisan and idealistic views.

Preferably with the timeline against the governments response and leveraging international trends.

There seems to be a lot of keyboard experts saying that the governments response could have been better, but the vast majority of those views have changed a lot over time and either intentionally or disingenuously ignores the international events going on such as watching Italy hospital system being utterly nailed with thousands of deaths per day and then exactly the same thing happening 14 days later to the day in the UK and the US following 2-3 days behind that.

It's my view that considering what the government was working with especially in the health sector where we have Māori and Pacific Islanders consistently having really poor health outcomes for decades there was no alternative.

In regards to the response I don't think Labour and associated agencies could have possible done any better with the information that they had to hand making extremely rapid cross agency decisions that typically are never that nimble.

Anyone who was working with central government during those early days as I was would know that is the truth.

As a country I have not a single doubt in my mind NZ would have had at a minimum 15,000 more deaths from COVID had National been in power.

tdgeek

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#3135986 28-Sep-2023 15:36

I guess it goes without saying that Orr and his team need to be replaced? He is appointed by the presiding minister of Finance, which will be Nicola Willis. Anything less would be hypocritical?

Perhaps Croaking Cassandra can assist with that

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