NZ 2023 Election Thread

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466 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3135991 28-Sep-2023 15:47

Wow. Isn't armchair economics fun?

On the economy:

For all the talk of "mismanagement on a massive scale" we've been getting remarkedly chill reports from the IMF and international ratings agencies.

On Labour's tax plans:

Plenty of economists who hate the concept of GST off fruit+veg but not many apart from the totally neutral Taxpayer's Union saying it doesn't add up.

On National's tax plans:

Almost everyone plus dog saying it doesn't add up, show us the numbers.

Apart from the one guy who was paid to check it (by the National party).

And now they're going to drop the rest of their fiscal plan at the very last minute on a Friday before voting opens. 🙄

Not at all suspicious.

tdgeek

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#3135993 28-Sep-2023 15:52

evilengineer:

And now they're going to drop the rest of their fiscal plan at the very last minute on a Friday before voting opens. 🙄

But its Incredible!

tdgeek

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#3135995 28-Sep-2023 15:53

Edit: I was told its credible :-)

Just lightening the mood :-)

evilengineer

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Ultimate Geek

#3135999 28-Sep-2023 16:12

tdgeek:

evilengineer:

And now they're going to drop the rest of their fiscal plan at the very last minute on a Friday before voting opens. 🙄

But its Incredible!

Or incredulous?

That's probably how anybody that reads the thing will be feeling.

quickymart

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#3136005 28-Sep-2023 16:27

https://archive.ph/J2yPZ >> I hope we don't need a second election, I can see more than a few people being unhappy with an outcome like this.

tdgeek

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#3136010 28-Sep-2023 16:43

quickymart:

https://archive.ph/J2yPZ >> I hope we don't need a second election, I can see more than a few people being unhappy with an outcome like this.

If National and ACT slip again as they have this week, those lost polls wont be going to the left bloc, they will go to NZF.

sen8or

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#3136011 28-Sep-2023 16:46

I think we just need to work on a few assumptions -

All political parties are full of $hit, they will all sell their souls to get into power.

All political parties use fairy-tale like assumptions to support their positive plans.

No other political party's plans stack up and there are fiscal holes everywhere.

All political parties have skeletons in the closet

At the end of the day, we vote for the one we want to believe the most and the one whose word salad that spews forth during campaigning sounds the most credible to us.

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evilengineer

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Ultimate Geek

#3136013 28-Sep-2023 16:47

Doubtful about the need for a second election this year but if it's NAT-ACT-NZF then the odds of the next one not happening until 2026 have lengthened.

Labour need to not meltdown after the election and at least be a strong/credible opposition.

ockel

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Uber Geek

#3136015 28-Sep-2023 16:54

tdgeek:

I guess it goes without saying that Orr and his team need to be replaced? He is appointed by the presiding minister of Finance, which will be Nicola Willis. Anything less would be hypocritical?

Perhaps Croaking Cassandra can assist with that

The RBNZ Governor is on a 5 year term, reappointed on 27 March 2023. His contract will end therefore on 26 March 2028 regardless of who is Minister of Finance. There was considerable gnashing of teeth and wailing from the Opposition when he was reappointed.

Important to know the facts.

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evilengineer

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Ultimate Geek

#3136020 28-Sep-2023 16:58

sen8or:

At the end of the day, we vote for the one we want to believe the most and the one whose word salad that spews forth during campaigning sounds the most credible to us.

We can probably all agree that if the word salad coming out of Christopher Luxon's mouth is the one that sounds most credible then that says a lot about the state of politics in this country. 😁

I don't think people particularly trust him, if at all. But if the mood of the country has settled on the need for "change" then that's hard to fight.

Problem is, change doesn't have to be for the better. See Brexit for a fine example.

tdgeek

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#3136021 28-Sep-2023 17:01

ockel:

The RBNZ Governor is on a 5 year term, reappointed on 27 March 2023. His contract will end therefore on 26 March 2028 regardless of who is Minister of Finance. There was considerable gnashing of teeth and wailing from the Opposition when he was reappointed.

Important to know the facts.

Thanks for the clarification.

tdgeek

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#3136023 28-Sep-2023 17:04

evilengineer:

We can probably all agree that if the word salad coming out of Christopher Luxon's mouth is the one that sounds most credible then that says a lot about the state of politics in this country. 😁

I don't think people particularly trust him, if at all. But if the mood of the country has settled on the need for "change" then that's hard to fight.

Problem is, change doesn't have to be for the better. See Brexit for a fine example.

He has been excellent in the debates, but his word salad is terrible. I cannot say its not credible as he rarely gives an answer, just campaign slogans as if he was on a street corner with a megaphone. That's what stands out.

Eitsop

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#3136101 28-Sep-2023 19:48

evilengineer:I don't think people particularly trust him, if at all. But if the mood of the country has settled on the need for "change" then that's hard to fight.

Similar when John key got in.. on mood of country & promise of tax cuts..

On top of that, John key claimed a mandate to sell Power assets (probably to pay for his tax cuts)

Also, labour forget to say, that the last National Govt left with huge debt as well. much more than they started with.

tdgeek

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#3136121 28-Sep-2023 20:38

Eitsop:

evilengineer:I don't think people particularly trust him, if at all. But if the mood of the country has settled on the need for "change" then that's hard to fight.

Similar when John key got in.. on mood of country & promise of tax cuts..

On top of that, John key claimed a mandate to sell Power assets (probably to pay for his tax cuts)

Also, labour forget to say, that the last National Govt left with huge debt as well. much more than they started with.

Thats where I find Labour weak. Inherited Sh!te. (from both parties) But they won't say that. When National win and it goes pear shaped, they will blame Labour.

Labour need to man up.

JK got in, as a fresh face, and I voted for him. Good calm manner, great. But it became fake. Poor guy made good, did nothing "we are a market driven economy" got the Kinghthood and bailed, leaving Bill English, who deserves a knighthood in no mans land. Luxon is the same, a bucket list politician. He came from a business background that JK didnt, my feels were good. A real CEO is better than most career politicians. Making a profit, which in Government will work, if the shareholders are the population. But seemingly it seems a case of another shortcut bucket list politician.

Tax cuts - JK. No we wont raise GST. Months later he did. Now, I have no issue if raising GST (i.e. increasing taxes) was a good idea or not, the issue is trust. (Personally I feel raising taxes is good as NZ does not have the revenue stream it needs)

For those that say that JK WAS a business background, no. he made his millions on FOREX in Hong Kong IIRC, not from a real business that employs real people, and makes real profits. They lubricate the economy. Employ 1000 people but your profits are only 2 Mill? Crap, but you are lubricating the economy, wages and GDP. Trading in FOREX offshore, not so much

tdgeek

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#3136123 28-Sep-2023 20:44

Bit of a turn up article I thought that was put to bed

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300979367/new-survey-shows-widespread-support-for-taxes-on-capital-gains-and-windfall-profits

Id prefer they made the PAYE tax tables/thresholds non regressive, it can be done.

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