Chris Hipkins, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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#3105300 18-Jul-2023 08:00

We get the "same same" from Governments because they both fight over votes from the centre block. Centrist swing voters will likely go with the party they believe is making the best noise about the issue du jour, for now, thats the economy, crime, health and education. Centrist swing voters also don't want a Govt that will be truly transformative and make wholesale changes. We have two of those to choose from, Act and The Greens. Both want to make some significant changes (albeit from opposing views) but they don't get support from the middle and both get labeled as looney.

GV27

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#3105301 18-Jul-2023 08:02

tdgeek:

Tax brackets are across both parties. Easy money until public pressure mounts. This is standard practice.

RBNZ is attacking inflation, its working. Inflation of this magnitude is global.

You're minimising the pandemic and Ukraine. In not many months we will be four years into the pandemic. How do you support the businesses and economy? You could print money. Borrow. Either way you cause inflation and poor debt to GDP, happened everywhere. Production halted, causing demand inflation. As opening up occurred globally production was still well down. And you get vast Covid sick leave. Im not sure how you can avoid all all that. You could avoid the wage subsidy, but then you just replace that with the dole and businesses going bust. Ukraine, wasnt just pain at the pump, literally everything we do/buy, has a fuel component.

I'm not saying they didn't have any impact. I'm saying we made decisions in response to it that were patently wrong, and there were plenty of people saying so at the time. The LSAP you're referring to with printing money would have been fine, but there was no good reason to drop LVRs. Acting surprised that a shitload of that ended up in property as a result was pretty hollow stuff.

As was keeping the FLP going while interest rates were being hiked to combat inflation. It made no sense, nor did arguing that inflation was 'transitory' when the world's manufacturing hubs were shut down due to Zero-Covid in China.

All decisions within our borders. All within our control. And the massive flow-on effects from thousands of households with huge mortgage debt now facing negative equity because of it are just an 'oopsie'. So I take issue with the idea we could not have done anything - and I would like to point out, again, that no one has been held to account for those decisions and the huge, life-changing ramifications of them that will take decades to unwind for normal people.

The external stuff is always going to happen. Like I say, if we're going to use it as an excuse to overlook the huge mistakes we've made internally with our own decision making then we are effectively too small and not smart enough be a viable country in our own right and are basically operating as a rudderless failed state.

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#3105327 18-Jul-2023 08:28

GV27:

I'm not saying they didn't have any impact. I'm saying we made decisions in response to it that were patently wrong, and there were plenty of people saying so at the time. The LSAP you're referring to with printing money would have been fine, but there was no good reason to drop LVRs. Acting surprised that a shitload of that ended up in property as a result was pretty hollow stuff.

As was keeping the FLP going while interest rates were being hiked to combat inflation. It made no sense, nor did arguing that inflation was 'transitory' when the world's manufacturing hubs were shut down due to Zero-Covid in China.

All decisions within our borders. All within our control. And the massive flow-on effects from thousands of households with huge mortgage debt now facing negative equity because of it are just an 'oopsie'. So I take issue with the idea we could not have done anything - and I would like to point out, again, that no one has been held to account for those decisions and the huge, life-changing ramifications of them that will take decades to unwind for normal people.

The external stuff is always going to happen. Like I say, if we're going to use it as an excuse to overlook the huge mistakes we've made internally with our own decision making then we are effectively too small and not smart enough be a viable country in our own right and are basically operating as a rudderless failed state.

By all accounts, most countries did the same. Property prices rose everywhere, LVR or no LVR, it was an unneeded consequence seen globally. As was inflation. You add money and dont add production, you get inflation. Yet production stalled, here we are. In any case I see the globe effects and the financial measure we took (as did everywhere else) as massive. That you say LSAP is fine is odd. Its a major cause. Had NZ been an outlier while everywhere else was fine now, then accountability is obvious, but we did what everyone else did, and have the same results.

"we are effectively too small and not smart enough be a viable country in our own right and are basically operating as a rudderless failed state." Well, we are fairly rudderless when we rely on food exports and we import the vast majority of manufactured goods, we ride the global wave. Triple the population, that would help.

As to viable, we are not. Tax revenue falls short of our many sectors financial needs. Teachers will soon get a pay bump via arbitration, where does that money come from? We are too small, but that has many non financial benefits.

GV27

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#3105345 18-Jul-2023 09:07

tdgeek:

By all accounts, most countries did the same. Property prices rose everywhere, LVR or no LVR, it was an unneeded consequence seen globally. As was inflation. You add money and dont add production, you get inflation. Yet production stalled, here we are. In any case I see the globe effects and the financial measure we took (as did everywhere else) as massive. That you say LSAP is fine is odd. Its a major cause. Had NZ been an outlier while everywhere else was fine now, then accountability is obvious, but we did what everyone else did, and have the same results.

Others have the same issues, but the causes are not the same. Let me put it to you this way: We would have come out of this far better had we not made certain decisions, that realistically have nothing to do with other countries. Entirely ours. Made by extremely well-paid people who are paid to come up with solutions to problems and make forecasts as to what the results will be.

Pointing to other places with high property prices and increasing living costs while ignoring the extremely specific things we refuse to even formally review about our response is and how those things specifically contributed to them, at some point, making a choice that's grounded in something other than objectivity.

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#3105362 18-Jul-2023 09:42

GV27:

Others have the same issues, but the causes are not the same. Let me put it to you this way: We would have come out of this far better had we not made certain decisions, that realistically have nothing to do with other countries. Entirely ours. Made by extremely well-paid people who are paid to come up with solutions to problems and make forecasts as to what the results will be.

Pointing to other places with high property prices and increasing living costs while ignoring the extremely specific things we refuse to even formally review about our response is and how those things specifically contributed to them, at some point, making a choice that's grounded in something other than objectivity.

Every country has its own internal issues, we are no different. Perhaps LVR has ruined NZ forever.. Perhaps a lot of countries made decisions they thought were right, overall, most came through it more or less ok. Its unrealistic to infer that all decisions need to be correct and correctly forecasted, thats hindsight.

This is election year, focus on what party is smarter and better from now on, rather than blame for a situation that threw the globe under a bus.

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#3105389 18-Jul-2023 10:41

tdgeek:

Not sure what Labour will do with taxation. Tax increases are a no go. Everyone wants tax cuts, thats 100% fair given how thresholds continually get ignored. But we all want more $ spent on crucial sectors, so taxation is a double edged sword.

Basically what you're saying is we cannot have our cake and eat it. I agree.

However we can be smarter in the way we spend our public money so that we get the best bang for buck. Governments of either hue don't have a marvellous track record in this regard. This current government IMO has an appalling record for throwing our money away without proper regard to the effects of doing that.

We had a massive sugar rush of poorly focussed public spending during Covid which is now fuelling our ills now. Covid was also used a a cover for introducing increased spending.

One good example of willy nilly spending was some (perhaps most) benefits were raised right at the start of Covid. Covid was used as an excuse as the need to raise benefits. It didn't make sense, those on a benefit were not going to see an immediate or direct increase in living expenses due to Covid. At that stage no one really knew how it would pan out or for how long. Those on a benefit weren't about to lose their jobs like those not on a benefit were. Anyone on a benefit needs an equitable amount from the government but using Covid as a cover to increase their payments was not right.

We need better fiscal prudence than we've been getting from Chris's team. l don't have the confidence they can deliver on that.

Once we fiscal prudence and we're making progress on Health, Education, Justice etc then we can think about tax cuts.

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#3105493 18-Jul-2023 12:25

tdgeek:

Its unrealistic to infer that all decisions need to be correct and correctly forecasted, thats hindsight.

It's a legitimate question given the huge amount that the RBNZ pumped into the economy and that there isn't going to be an external review of their decision making.

The fact this is not included in the Covid Royal Commission should be a scandal. The fact that RBNZ were allowed to review their own response as the most substantive piece of reflection on it is appalling. It's getting to the point where I would conscientiously object to having to pay taxes to fund it. If professional accountants or engineers started making decisions this badly at an industry level, they would have the power of self-regulation taken away from them. Why do we afford our central bank the status we should reserve for gods? They are not infallible. They should not exist as a protected class.

The RBNZ is still getting forecasts around wage growth wrong now. Generally you cannot just make excuses for why something is wrong without ever really taking a proper look and expect any different outcome than the one we're getting, I'd suggest that attitude will probably cause us even more harm in the long run than it has already.

tdgeek

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#3105693 18-Jul-2023 18:05

Technofreak:

Basically what you're saying is we cannot have our cake and eat it. I agree.

However we can be smarter in the way we spend our public money so that we get the best bang for buck. Governments of either hue don't have a marvellous track record in this regard. This current government IMO has an appalling record for throwing our money away without proper regard to the effects of doing that.

We had a massive sugar rush of poorly focussed public spending during Covid which is now fuelling our ills now. Covid was also used a a cover for introducing increased spending.

One good example of willy nilly spending was some (perhaps most) benefits were raised right at the start of Covid. Covid was used as an excuse as the need to raise benefits. It didn't make sense, those on a benefit were not going to see an immediate or direct increase in living expenses due to Covid. At that stage no one really knew how it would pan out or for how long. Those on a benefit weren't about to lose their jobs like those not on a benefit were. Anyone on a benefit needs an equitable amount from the government but using Covid as a cover to increase their payments was not right.

We need better fiscal prudence than we've been getting from Chris's team. l don't have the confidence they can deliver on that.

Once we fiscal prudence and we're making progress on Health, Education, Justice etc then we can think about tax cuts.

i dont disagree with your post, but these have been extraordinary times. its not possible to nail it.If any MP or PM did their best to nail it, I support that. Whether it worded or not is not relevant.

tdgeek

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#3105694 18-Jul-2023 18:07

GV27:

It's a legitimate question given the huge amount that the RBNZ pumped into the economy and that there isn't going to be an external review of their decision making.

The fact this is not included in the Covid Royal Commission should be a scandal. The fact that RBNZ were allowed to review their own response as the most substantive piece of reflection on it is appalling. It's getting to the point where I would conscientiously object to having to pay taxes to fund it. If professional accountants or engineers started making decisions this badly at an industry level, they would have the power of self-regulation taken away from them. Why do we afford our central bank the status we should reserve for gods? They are not infallible. They should not exist as a protected class.

The RBNZ is still getting forecasts around wage growth wrong now. Generally you cannot just make excuses for why something is wrong without ever really taking a proper look and expect any different outcome than the one we're getting, I'd suggest that attitude will probably cause us even more harm in the long run than it has already.

Is RBNZ part of a Labour or National Government if they were in power. Or are they supposedly independent?

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#3105746 18-Jul-2023 20:56

tdgeek:

Is RBNZ part of a Labour or National Government if they were in power. Or are they supposedly independent?

Both.

Many of their functions are independent of which party is in power (eg the desired inflation targets are part of their mandate), they also offer advice on various financial decisions, which governments are free to ignore (and do), but they are also obligated to help enact policy to what ever extent.

But in general in NZ the civil service is apolitical, so unlike the USA we don't not have mass resignations and new political appointments based on party lines.

sen8or

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#3106005 19-Jul-2023 16:38

I see in a knee jerk type reaction, policy from labour has been announced without a shred of supporting data -

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/davis-reveals-no-business-case-undertaken-for-cost-timeframes-of-youth-justice-policy/ar-AA1e2RfC?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1ea5fe44b33d4dc8b426b08a9ec2a6cb&ei=15#comments

Will Hipkins survive until October?

Ministers are a disaster

Revenue and Finance minister have come out publicly with displeasure over Hipkin's announcement about tax (before the tax policy is released publicly) and both Labour allies (Greens / Te Pati Maori) are equally unimpressed.

Davis now throwing the announcement under the bus.

This has the smell of an impending coup

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sir1963

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#3106011 19-Jul-2023 17:15

sen8or:

I see in a knee jerk type reaction, policy from labour has been announced without a shred of supporting data -

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/davis-reveals-no-business-case-undertaken-for-cost-timeframes-of-youth-justice-policy/ar-AA1e2RfC?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1ea5fe44b33d4dc8b426b08a9ec2a6cb&ei=15#comments

Will Hipkins survive until October?

Ministers are a disaster

Revenue and Finance minister have come out publicly with displeasure over Hipkin's announcement about tax (before the tax policy is released publicly) and both Labour allies (Greens / Te Pati Maori) are equally unimpressed.

Davis now throwing the announcement under the bus.

This has the smell of an impending coup

As soon as you see Andrew Little you knows its crap... he is the minister for bad/embarrassing situations/failure... must be good at it, he appears regularly.

tdgeek

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#3106027 19-Jul-2023 17:45

sen8or:

I see in a knee jerk type reaction, policy from labour has been announced without a shred of supporting data -

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/davis-reveals-no-business-case-undertaken-for-cost-timeframes-of-youth-justice-policy/ar-AA1e2RfC?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1ea5fe44b33d4dc8b426b08a9ec2a6cb&ei=15#comments

Will Hipkins survive until October?

Ministers are a disaster

Revenue and Finance minister have come out publicly with displeasure over Hipkin's announcement about tax (before the tax policy is released publicly) and both Labour allies (Greens / Te Pati Maori) are equally unimpressed.

Davis now throwing the announcement under the bus.

This has the smell of an impending coup

Agree, but this has happened to both parties over and over.

ockel

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#3106043 19-Jul-2023 18:26

sen8or:

I see in a knee jerk type reaction, policy from labour has been announced without a shred of supporting data -

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/davis-reveals-no-business-case-undertaken-for-cost-timeframes-of-youth-justice-policy/ar-AA1e2RfC?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1ea5fe44b33d4dc8b426b08a9ec2a6cb&ei=15#comments

Will Hipkins survive until October?

Ministers are a disaster

Revenue and Finance minister have come out publicly with displeasure over Hipkin's announcement about tax (before the tax policy is released publicly) and both Labour allies (Greens / Te Pati Maori) are equally unimpressed.

Davis now throwing the announcement under the bus.

This has the smell of an impending coup

Add the knee jerk reaction with new sentencing for ram raiders. Poto Williams stated it wasnt a thing in April 2022 - she lost her job, replaced by Chris Hipkins as the next Police Minister and now it takes the full 15 months (and the law and order as the second most important issue for voters) for something to be announced.

Or is the 15 months a red herring and its all about less than 100 days to the election.

For the last 5 years its been reactionary policy from an unprepared Government. Where is the planning? Tied up in yet another commissioned review/report?

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tdgeek

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#3106047 19-Jul-2023 18:33

ockel:

Add the knee jerk reaction with new sentencing for ram raiders. Poto Williams stated it wasnt a thing in April 2022 - she lost her job, replaced by Chris Hipkins as the next Police Minister and now it takes the full 15 months (and the law and order as the second most important issue for voters) for something to be announced.

Or is the 15 months a red herring and its all about less than 100 days to the election.

For the last 5 years its been reactionary policy from an unprepared Government. Where is the planning? Tied up in yet another commissioned review/report?

14 October sorts it. A highly qualified new PM.... and a massively qualified new Minister of Finance....

I do get your point, but issues like this and others have swamped both parties.

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