NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3147608 15-Oct-2023 07:33

MikeB4: @tdgeek One seat becomes speaker and National Act should select a NZ first member for that. The bi-election is expected to go to National. Given the mood of change special will probably support National Act but that's no certainty and there is approximately 500,000 specials. The make up of parlywont be known for several weeks.

If the numbers hold national will probably invite Adrian Rurawhe to be speaker again.

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#3147609 15-Oct-2023 07:35

MikeB4: The last Labour lead coalition term was a shambles with the nation feeling like a headless chook. Hipkins was a mediocre PM. Although the exact next government make up is still unclear the vote for change is very clear.

NZ Green over the next three years need to work hard and show they should be one of the leading parties displacing Labour to status of minor party.

Yes there was a mood for change, the result was widely expected for months. But if the past Govt was a shambles, and its a super slender majority between the usual coalition blocs, that doesn't make a landslide. In fact it means that both are not great

Greens. They have no power now. The Climate Change Fund just disappeared. So, assisting entrepreneurs with green energy ideas wont happen, which is a pity.

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#3147611 15-Oct-2023 07:42

Technofreak:

The lack of votes for Gunn, Tamaki and Co. might get them to realise how out of step with everyone they are and how little support they really have. It might smash their little echo chamber. Hopefully.

I agree with you on this and was thinking last night that in most of the recent elections there seems to be one fringe/spoiler/whatever party that sucks up a number of votes, loses, then disappears. Last election was Advance with Jamie Lee Ross and Billy what's-his-face (where are they now?) which lost then disappeared, I'm hoping Gunn's party does the exact same thing. Ditto Tamaki, although I have a feeling he may have a bit more staying power than the former, in part due to the endless grift...er...donations he receives from his "flock".

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#3147612 15-Oct-2023 07:48

I am now going to switch off to politics. The die is cast and I am not going to worry about it, get on with life and let the politicians and press entertain themselves in the sandbox

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#3147614 15-Oct-2023 07:52

MikeB4: @tdgeek One seat becomes speaker and National Act should select a NZ first member for that. The bi-election is expected to go to National. Given the mood of change special will probably support National Act but that's no certainty and there is approximately 500,000 specials. The make up of parly wont be known for several weeks.

I think the specials will make quite a change. I think National will lose 2 seats all up, so Winston will be king maker once more as NACT won’t reach out to Greens or TPM.

But the loss of ~15% of the voters turning out give or take this election is absolutely what turned it.

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#3147615 15-Oct-2023 08:00

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/something-to-celebrate-for-everyone-but-labour

Some interesting analysis here.

There's also the by-election in Port Waikato, which will probably go to National, but (as I understand) then the majority they need to become government increases?

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#3147618 15-Oct-2023 08:15

BarTender: But the loss of ~15% of the voters turning out give or take this election is absolutely what turned it.

"I hurt so much, I don't like these policies.""

"Did you vote?"

"No..."

"Well, then. Consequences."

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#3147619 15-Oct-2023 08:42

Here is an interesting electorate - Maungakiekie
2020 - https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/electorate-details-23.html

2023 - https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-details-23.html

2020 2023

Total 37,600 25,819

National Electorate 15,597 12,764

National Party 9,668 10,900

Labour Electorate 18,895 9114

Labour Party 16,232 7008

Greens Electorate 2666 1809

Greens Party 3403 3282

With so many people not turning up this time... and the majority of that was Labour voters.

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#3147623 15-Oct-2023 08:55

Sorta like 2002, eh? I remember a lot of voters back then thought a Labour win was inevitable so didn't bother voting then as well.

gzt

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#3147628 15-Oct-2023 09:34

I wonder if the number of 'wasted' list votes were the highest ever, on parties like Gunn and Tamaki and all the rest.

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#3147629 15-Oct-2023 09:38

Technofreak: The lack of votes for Gunn, Tamaki and Co. might get them to realise how out of step with everyone they are and how little support they really have. It might smash their little echo chamber. Hopefully.

Lack of votes for Tamaki has never discouraged him in the past. Lack of votes for Gunn can only spawn another conspiracy I'm not looking forward to hearing.

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quickymart

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#3147630 15-Oct-2023 09:43

^ "Liz Gunn Expects 2 Million Votes"

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/05/election-2023-brian-tamaki-s-umbrella-party-believes-they-could-get-20-percent-of-vote.html

^ "Election 2023: Brian Tamaki's 'umbrella party' believes they could get 20 percent of vote"

I must say, those overly confident and extremely optimistic soundbites didn't age particularly well, did they?

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#3147637 15-Oct-2023 10:10

Special vote count is not complete until November 3rd. That's a long time to wait.

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#3147638 15-Oct-2023 10:13

I have a feeling things are going to change somewhat once that's all counted - and I also have a feeling that, depressingly, Winston is going to need to be involved again 😕

Special votes are ones from outside of the electorate eh? Early votes aren't counted as special ones, right? I voted last Sunday but hope mine was counted last night.

gzt

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#3147639 15-Oct-2023 10:17

I think an enrol-on-the-day vote is counted as a special vote just as it used to be.

Edit: I had some idea that was allowed again this year maybe not can't find it.

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