kyhwana2: Don't bother mining with a CPU.. you want a high end GPU AND you don't pay for power or get a cheap ASIC..
If you are paying for electricity at NZ prices, the most efficient GPU mining rig will cost a lot more to run than it will earn.
ASICs are better from a power point of view but there are no ASICs that you can buy and take delivery of today that have any hope of earning back their purchase price. Things like the BFL Jalopeno look good but if you order one today, you will not get it for several months and by then, the difficulty will have risen to the point where they will never pay back the purchase price.
You might make a profit by buying shares in one of the large ASIC farms that are being assembled but even then you are still taking a gamble.
it doesnt really matter what you believe; as long as the fiat value of BTC remains speculative, your statement will always be wrong. theres no personal opinion, grey area, educated guess or "i dont believe" about it
That is not correct. Regardless of the future value of the Bitcoin in fiat currency, buying an ASIC miner at today's prices, with the current rate of difficulty increase will always lose you money against simply transferring an equivalent sum of money into Bitcoins and just holding it. That is a guarantee. We know that the current rate of difficulty increase will be maintained or will increase because we have a good picture of the rate at which new ASICs will be shipped by the ASIC manufacturers who have a track record of delivery. Add in the potential contribution of BFL and others who may well ship eventually and it gets worse.
This is true for any ASIC mining device currently on the market.
Buying any ASIC mining device is an irrational act. Even if you are convinced that the future value of Bitcoins will be higher, it is still an irrational act as you would simply make more money by transfering funds into Bitcoins and holding them.
The only people making money out of Bitcoin ASICs are the manufacturers and people who are able to buy ASIC devices and resell them at a profit.
sigh. why dont you go back and have another read of the thread
his statement: "none of these units will ever recover their original cost"
my statement: "if the hardware is purchased in fiat, and the fiat value of BTC is an unknown variable, then his statement can never be correct. ever"
your statement: "transferring an equivalent sum of money into Bitcoins" - nothing to do with it?
your statement: "difficulty increase" - nothing to do with it?
your statement: "potential contribution of BFL and others" - nothing to do with it?
so again, i'll repeat: as long as the unit is capable of mining any fraction of bitcoin, and as long as the fiat price of bitcoin is an unknown variable, then his statement will always be wrong
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