Auckland Weather 27/01/23 and Cyclone Gabrielle

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#3034617 10-Feb-2023 14:58

mkissin:

There's a lot of alarmist stuff going around, but when preparing for a potential emergency it's probably best to err on the over-prepared side and I think there's also a tendency to overcompensate for the failings of the response to the initial weather problems.

Agree, and this one can potentially be worse, and that's the wind not the rain, plus they will get the big rain as well.

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#3034772 10-Feb-2023 20:01

Looking at Nullschool, it hasnt moved much, wind speed is down as is rainfall per 3 hours. Promising

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#3034783 10-Feb-2023 20:21

Predictions from the sailors and weather people at a sailing club I spend time on have predicted it will go behind great barrier and impact will be fairly minimal compared to other predictions. I hope that they are right.

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#3034786 10-Feb-2023 20:32

They are picking it will head further East. Each hour it gets more locked in

neb

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#3034788 10-Feb-2023 20:53

Yup. US Navy data also has it swinging further east.

(Some context there, the US Navy has probably the best marine weather monitoring system in the world, for obvious reasons, so they're a pretty good reference).

Edited to add: And winds dropping to 50kts at least two update cycles away from NZ, which means they'll drop even further as it gets closer.

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#3034794 10-Feb-2023 21:02

neb: Yup. US Navy data also has it swinging further east. (Some context there, the US Navy has probably the best marine weather monitoring system in the world, for obvious reasons, so they're a pretty good reference). Edited to add: And winds dropping to 50kts at least two update cycles away from NZ, which means they'll drop even further as it gets closer.

Cyclone Gabrielle has intensified into a category 3 severe tropical cyclone and has tracked back slightly west, towards Auckland – but the Coromandel will still be hit the worst, forecasters say.

So many variables. We are in another marine heatwave, but so many variables at play.

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neb

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#3034797 10-Feb-2023 21:08

tdgeek:
Cyclone Gabrielle has intensified into a category 3 severe tropical cyclone and has tracked back slightly west, towards Auckland – but the Coromandel will still be hit the worst, forecasters say.

Yeah, that's the MetService. You'll notice that everyone else who's commented in the last few messages is citing reliable sources that aren't the MetService...

tdgeek

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#3034807 10-Feb-2023 21:31

neb:
tdgeek:

Cyclone Gabrielle has intensified into a category 3 severe tropical cyclone and has tracked back slightly west, towards Auckland – but the Coromandel will still be hit the worst, forecasters say.

Yeah, that's the MetService. You'll notice that everyone else who's commented in the last few messages is citing reliable sources that aren't the MetService...

MS are taking that from the available suppliers. It will track East, or SE. Say it tracks East, MS and their providers are silly, say it tracks SSE, i.e. West biased, the others are silly. We are in yet another marine heatwave, thats the fuel, but essentially its not predictable. Ive seen many hurricanes divert. Small pressure changes here and there. The morning will tell all, Ill leave the laptop on NS overnight to check the movement

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#3034819 10-Feb-2023 22:06

Speaking of which; I believe that Cyclone Tracy was definitely one that diverted in an unexpected way and devastated Darwin - after having passed near the city several days previously and not causing it any harm at all.

Hopefully this cyclone moves further east and doesn't do too much damage.

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#3034821 10-Feb-2023 22:10

quickymart:

Speaking of which; I believe that Cyclone Tracy was definitely one that diverted in an unexpected way and devastated Darwin - after having passed near the city several days previously and not causing it any harm at all.

Hopefully this cyclone moves further east and doesn't do too much damage.

Yep, I used to go the US every year, southern state LA, so Ive taken interest in goings on there. Doesnt take much, all about the fuel, which is sea temp