Wind starting to pick up a bit now, but I'll still keep an eye on its tracking. Let's see...

heavenlywild: What do we think is going to happen team?

I'm no meteorologist but keen to hear people's thoughts this morning.

cyclones are notoriously difficult to predict. a lot of it depends on how the front sweeps over and how fast its going. 

It looks like this will pass directly over Norfolk Island later today, so I suppose will give us an idea what this storm is like.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-11/tropical-cyclone-gabrielle-tracking-towards-norfolk-island/101956974

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=norfolk-island-aero

It looks like Coromandel Peninsular will get a pasting even if its a bit 'meh' for Auckland.

If its not 'meh' for Auckland and a direct hit Coromandel Peninsular will still get a pasting it seems.

Having been in and around that area in my childhood, to go back and see the change in scouring of some beaches over the decades, they have been taking it for Auckland for quite a while, a shield for some of the worst weather.

I had Nullschool on last night, set the cursor to the eye, you get a green circle, its been running since. Its moved but still in line with Cape Reinga. Who knows from here, but its well on track.

heavenlywild: Why would the cyclone change paths and move in a more south easterly direction when it arrives? Why would it not keep its current track in a more easterly direction

Just curious.

It needs fuel. Sea temperature is fuel. As with North America hurricanes when they make landfall they dissipate as fuel runs out. The ocean is large and dense, stores a lot of heat, heat in the ocean is dense. Land, it can get hot but it cannot store heat as well. Take something on you kitchen benchtop, gets hot in the sun, then gets cold when shaded. Make that a large container of water that warms up, takes a good while to cool (relatively). The ocean is huge by volume

heavenlywild: Why would the cyclone change paths and move in a more south easterly direction when it arrives? Why would it not keep its current track in a more easterly direction

Just curious.

Paths. Sea temp is warmer out East so it goes East. Or its warmer in a slightly different direction, it goes there. Quite complex though

Temperature causes a differential. Its hot "there" not so hot "here" so the air pressure difference moves "here" to equalise, get an equilibrium. Wind is the same. Its high pressure "here" and low pressure "there", so air will move from here to there to equalise the pressure, = wind. 

neb: Just realised Shakespeare in the Park is on tonight. Shakespeare, outdoors, in the path of a cyclone, next to a lake at the bottom of a volcanic crater, with plague (Covid) still active. Did that miss any checkboxes?

If people are prepared, its probably quite good to be diverted for a while, companionship, fellowship (no i'm not religious) When a sudden disaster happens, thats not great, but when you all have a warning thats probably an extra emotional issue to deal with

The eye has moved eastward slightly based on my fixed cursor last night at Nullschool

Zigg: Hmm, no longer listed under cyclones on Metoc.navy.mil

tdgeek:

The eye has moved eastward slightly based on my fixed cursor last night at Nullschool

heavenlywild:

tdgeek:

The eye has moved eastward slightly based on my fixed cursor last night at Nullschool

That's excellent news I assume.