2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2578703 3-Oct-2020 19:02

mattwnz:

I read something yesterday that the NSW premier said that elimination wasn't possible or practical. It is also possible there is still low level community transmission occurring. They do appear to have social distancing restrictions, so are more locked down than NZ is.They never did the full level 4 lockdown like NZ to purge the undetected community cases. So it still seems they are more about flattening the curve that true eliination, so not fully compatible with NZs approach, which is why I am guessing the PM isn't interested in reciprocating the bubble yet. That bubble mainly benefits Oz, and I question the timing with it being so close to an election in NZ.

Its not a bubble.

Its a one way option, not a bubble.

The one way option benefits OZ as they can get our NZ$ for those that want to go there, instead of those NZ$ being spent here. If they are spent at Coles instead of Countdown, it still affects us. No tourists will go there from here. Few will go there.

Its a Claytons news item, but NEVER call this a bubble, its not

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#2578705 3-Oct-2020 19:06

mattwnz:

vexxxboy:

but he wasnt careful, which is the reason he got it

Behind closed doors he is apparently a germophobe. Certainly he has been wearing masks etc in certain situations. Although he has held these big rallies, he appears to have been socially distanced himself. But I think he is going to become the posterchild for this virus. IMO it was only a matter of time before he got it. We have to remember that the next King of England got the virus, as did the British PM. Prince Charles is also a similar age to Trump, but didn't get it bad. So it is a bit of a lottery as to how sick he will become from it. He could be sick for a few months from it.

Just goes to show how lucky we are in NZ. We have politicians pressing flesh at the moment, without having to really worry too much about the virus.

What does the bold mean? Are we lucky? Not really. We aimed for elimination and with all the challenges that still applies. I think you mentioned that Boris almost died?? I dont think so. These leaders get supreme healthcare so they are most probably 90% less likely to fall victim then Joe/Joanne Average might do.

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#2578726 3-Oct-2020 21:15

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

Behind closed doors he is apparently a germophobe. Certainly he has been wearing masks etc in certain situations. Although he has held these big rallies, he appears to have been socially distanced himself. But I think he is going to become the posterchild for this virus. IMO it was only a matter of time before he got it. We have to remember that the next King of England got the virus, as did the British PM. Prince Charles is also a similar age to Trump, but didn't get it bad. So it is a bit of a lottery as to how sick he will become from it. He could be sick for a few months from it.

Just goes to show how lucky we are in NZ. We have politicians pressing flesh at the moment, without having to really worry too much about the virus.

What does the bold mean? Are we lucky? Not really. We aimed for elimination and with all the challenges that still applies. I think you mentioned that Boris almost died?? I dont think so. These leaders get supreme healthcare so they are most probably 90% less likely to fall victim then Joe/Joanne Average might do.

Press the flesh is an idiom that is often used in politics. To press the flesh means to shake hands, to mingle in a crowd of people in order to make personal, physical contact. Politicians often press the flesh in order to make personal contact with voters and show that they are equals of the people. https://grammarist.com/idiom/press-the-flesh/

Yes Boris did almost die. The media however downplayed his condition at the time. He even admitted that he did after he recovered.

Boris Johnson, who almost died from the coronavirus, wishes Trump and the first lady 'a speedy recovery'

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/johnson-nearly-died-covid-wishes-trump-speedy-recovery-2020-10?r=US&IR=T

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#2579010 4-Oct-2020 13:06

Covid and your pet, its been noted before but a bit more info.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/science/cats-coronavirus-immunity.html

""
Cats, however, do develop a strong, protective immune response, which may make them worth studying when it comes to human vaccines.

There is still no evidence to suggest that pets have passed the virus to humans, although cats do shed the virus and infect other cats.
""
Ferrets have been shown in the laboratory to be susceptible to infection with the virus, and to spread it to other ferrets.

But scientists at Tufts reported, in a paper that has yet to be peer- reviewed, that in one house with 29 pet ferrets and two humans with Covid not one ferret became infected with the virus.
""
Minks, which are in the same family as ferrets, appear to be very easily infected, and to get sick from the disease. Researchers have also reported transmission from animals to humans at mink farms in the Netherlands in a paper not yet peer-reviewed.
""
as yet unpublished work shows that deer mice may become infected with the novel coronavirus.
""

Dear mice are somewhat infamous as a reservoir of Hantavirus a particularly nasty but fortunately not common virus, in some parts of USA .

Living with 29 Ferrets, Oh my.

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#2579012 4-Oct-2020 13:09

Don't know if this has been posted before or not but here is a reminder

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

freitasm

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#2579016 4-Oct-2020 13:20

Five cases in MIQ today.

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#2579546 5-Oct-2020 13:43

Auckland moving to Level 1 Wednesday night (Thursday morning)

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#2579551 5-Oct-2020 13:49

Press release:

There is one new confirmed case of COVID-19 to report from managed isolation in New Zealand today and no new confirmed cases in the community.

The person who has tested positive arrived from Hong Kong on 1 October and returned a positive test as part of routine testing at around day 3. They have been transferred to the Auckland quarantine facility.

Our total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is 1,499, which is the number we report to the World Health Organization.

Two previously reported cases are now considered to have recovered, meaning our total number of active cases is 40.

Of these active cases, 34 are imported cases in MIQ facilities, and six are community cases.

There is no one in hospital with COVID-19 in New Zealand today.

Yesterday our laboratories processed 2,834 tests, bringing the total number of tests completed to date to 982,819.

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#2579555 5-Oct-2020 14:01

freitasm:

Press release:

There is one new confirmed case of COVID-19 to report from managed isolation in New Zealand today and no new confirmed cases in the community.

The person who has tested positive arrived from Hong Kong on 1 October and returned a positive test as part of routine testing at around day 3. They have been transferred to the Auckland quarantine facility.

Our total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is 1,499, which is the number we report to the World Health Organization.

Two previously reported cases are now considered to have recovered, meaning our total number of active cases is 40.

Of these active cases, 34 are imported cases in MIQ facilities, and six are community cases.

There is no one in hospital with COVID-19 in New Zealand today.

Yesterday our laboratories processed 2,834 tests, bringing the total number of tests completed to date to 982,819.

One is related to the "rubbish bin" spread in MIQ,

While 5 are Auckland cluster related (but all bar one ( the 25th Sept case) should be soon declared recovered as they were announced between 11-14 September..)

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#2579786 5-Oct-2020 22:18

South Korea now in a fight with far right aligned Church as well as Covid.
Sets up a wall of busses to block protests.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-03/south-korea-bus-walls-prevent-protests-amid-covid-19-concerns/12729704

Seems the Church at the center of the outbreak a few months back has been very anti Government and uncooperative.
People not coming forward to be tested with inevitable result.

Meanwhile in New York.
All the wrong COVID-19 moves
https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-669/

Colombia University Podcast on Virology

Daniel Griffin who has a practice in New York provides a clinical report on COVID-19 on New York going up again.
Near trigger point for activation of restrictions again.
Some Brooklyn religious leaders told congregations not to get tested, to lower positive rate so they don't get shutdown.
Sigh...

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#2579850 6-Oct-2020 08:54

may have been playing grand slam tennis with covid (symptoms only no test - yet) https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/05/tennis/alexander-zverev-covid-19-french-open-jannik-sinner-spt-intl/index.html

may also be some other illness but i'll be watching this space.

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#2579884 6-Oct-2020 09:46

I have removed quite a few posts related to Trump (and Biden). @kingdragonfly no posts about Trump here. Nothing. Nada.

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#2579887 6-Oct-2020 10:01

For numbers comparison:

Nationally (USA), 1 in every 1,600 Americans alive at the beginning of the year has died of the virus. That’s because the pandemic has been much deadlier in some large, populous states than it has been elsewhere. In Illinois, 1 in 1,400 residents is now dead because of the virus. In Massachusetts, 1 in 725. The hardest-hit state per capita, though, has been New Jersey. There, 1 in every 550 residents has died of the virus — a toll that would translate to 600,000 deaths nationally."

This is massive in terms of impact on the families, relations and economy.

People should think before spouting the "New Zealand is losing its freedoms" and "Lockdowns are killing New Zealand" as I saw some posting on other media.

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#2579894 6-Oct-2020 10:15

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54423988

Absolute shambles. You can bet there will be 0% accountability for this too.

The badly thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software was the reason nearly 16,000 coronavirus cases went unreported in England.

And it appears that Public Health England (PHE) was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.

The issue was caused by the way the agency brought together logs produced by commercial firms paid to analyse swab tests of the public, to discover who has the virus.

They filed their results in the form of text-based lists - known as CSV files - without issue.

PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team, as well as other government computer dashboards.

The problem is that PHE's own developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS.

As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.

And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases.

When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.

For a bit of context, Excel's XLS file format dates back to 1987. It was superseded by XLSX in 2007. Had this been used, it would have handled 16 times the number of cases.

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#2579908 6-Oct-2020 10:28

freitasm:

For numbers comparison:

Nationally (USA), 1 in every 1,600 Americans alive at the beginning of the year has died of the virus. That’s because the pandemic has been much deadlier in some large, populous states than it has been elsewhere. In Illinois, 1 in 1,400 residents is now dead because of the virus. In Massachusetts, 1 in 725. The hardest-hit state per capita, though, has been New Jersey. There, 1 in every 550 residents has died of the virus — a toll that would translate to 600,000 deaths nationally."

This is massive in terms of impact on the families, relations and economy.

Bear in mind that New Jersey's 1835 deaths is from 212,220 confirmed cases = 0.86% CFR. 212,220 / 8,882,190 population is 2.4% confirmed infected. Conceivably the number actually infected could be 10 times that. Even so, if the entire population was infected, you could expect 7,638 deaths. Even assuming herd immunity happens at about 50% infection rate, that would still mean 3,819 deaths. So, in the absence of a vaccine or elimination, New Jersey is at best less than half-way to its total. And the rest of the USA has a lot more to go.

Another comparison, to NZ. NJ is a bit under twice (1.76 times) NZ's population, but has more deaths than we have had infections. Imagine if every one of NZ's infections had been a death.

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